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Something Strange Is Happening to Democrats: They Might Win the Midterms But Have Worse Polls Than Donald Trump

Democrats head into the midterms with a growing lead, but a New York Times/Siena survey finds fewer voters are satisfied with the party than approve of Trump. A centrist Democratic strategist warns “there are no laurels to rest on,” while other polls show voters doubt Democrats would govern better.

Donald Trump
President Donald Trump holds a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy, Thursday, April 17, 2025, in the Oval Office. Vice President JD Vance attends. (Official White House Photo by Emily J. Higgins.)

Even as the Democrats head into the November 3 midterm elections confident they will take control of at least one chamber of Congress, new figures suggest voters remain deeply dissatisfied with the party itself —so dissatisfied, in fact, that many like the party less than President Donald Trump.

According to a report published by The Times on Sunday, October 25, only 28% of American voters are satisfied with the Democratic Party, compared with 36% who approve of President Trump, according to a Siena University survey.

Donald Trump Pointing in Speech

Donald Trump Pointing in Speech. Image Credit: White House.

Although the two figures technically measure different things, they point to a serious problem for Democrats as they prepare for what could become a major electoral victory in less than two weeks.

The findings come as new CNN polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by 10 points in congressional voting preferences, with the president’s approval rating down to just 32%.

The Democrats’ sizable, growing advantage suggests Republicans are set to lose control of the House of Representatives, with the Senate more competitive than originally anticipated.

Democrats Have A Popularity Problem

According to the latest data, many Americans are preparing to vote against the Republican Party in November, and not necessarily because they want Democrats to win.

According to The Times, only 56% of Democratic voters say they are satisfied with their party. 84% of Republicans say they are satisfied with theirs.

The figures suggest that Republicans are still more united behind their party than the Democrats, but that voters are generally turning against the administration over concerns about the Iran war and the rising cost of living.

The report also cited several strategists warning Democrats not to interpret a November victory as evidence that voters broadly support their politics.

Matt Bennett, co-founder of the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way, told the outlet the party needs to recognize it still has problems and that voters don’t see eye to eye with it on many issues.

Donald Trump

President Donald Trump plays golf in the Senior Club Championship at Trump National Golf Club Jupiter, Sunday, April 6, 2025, in Jupiter, Florida. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)

“There are no laurels to rest on here. We have got to recognize that. We are in a deep hole, and Trump got us out of that hole by being the worst president in the history of the United States,” he said. “But he won’t be on the ballot next time,e and things are going to be different… It means making an effort to be more mainstream, to reach out to voters in the middle that decide elections and to not pander to our base.”

A Gallup poll published in October supported his claims, finding that 43% of Americans view the Democratic Party favorably, compared to 35% who said they felt the same about Republicans.

The figures suggest the Democrats have an eight-point advantage over the Republicans, but they also show that a majority of Americans still view the party negatively.

Voters Want Change, But They Don’t Trust Democrats

Another poll, this time by CNN and conducted between October 15 and 18, found that dissatisfaction with the Trump administration doesn’t automatically translate into confidence that Democrats would govern better.

Only 41% of respondents said that the country would be better off with Democrats controlling Congress.

37% said that it would be worse off. Another 22% said that changing the party that controls Congress would make no difference.

Among independent voters specifically, 36% said Democrats controlling Congress would make no difference.

The same survey showed that 18% of voters hold unfavorable views of both parties, and among those voters, 48% supported Democratic congressional candidates. 28% backed Republicans.

The findings suggest Democrats may secure historic victories in November, but not because they are popular.

Instead, voters appear willing to support Democrats over concerns about President Donald Trump’s policies, with many explicitly saying they believe voting for Democrats in Congress would let new legislators check President Trump’s power.

A separate Associated Press-NORC survey released on October 15 came to a similar conclusion, finding that roughly four in ten voters view Democrats favorably.

The survey found that about half viewed the party negatively, and about six in ten respondents viewed Republicans unfavorably.

Trump’s Falling Approval Rating Helps Democrats

Despite their problems, the Democrats are benefiting from a substantial deterioration in President Trump’s standing among voters. A New York Times/Siena survey conducted between October 12 and 19 found that only 36% of likely voters approve of President Trump’s performance, while 59% disapprove.

The president’s handling of the economy has been especially damaging to Republicans, with the survey finding that 69% disapproved of his handling of living costs and 73% disapproved of his response to rising gasoline prices.

About the Author: Jack Buckby

Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, and he produces and edits analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.

Jack Buckby
Written By

Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.

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