If the polls are right about both President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and a generic ballot that strongly favors Democrats, then the Republicans are probably looking at a tough election night next Tuesday.
Trump’s approval rating is around 20 points underwater, Democrats lead on the generic ballot by the high single digits, and voters are unhappy with the high cost of living and the war in Iran.
President Donald Trump boards Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland on Thursday, September 11, 2025, for a trip to New York. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
Donald Trump Meeting With French President White House Flickr Photo
Trump has been campaigning in red states he won, for Republican Senate candidates who weren’t expected to face tough re-election battles.
However, there’s always a bit of an “if” with pre-election polls.
According to an analysis The Hill published this week, the president could face “a major rebuke from voters as the clock ticks down to the midterm elections.” Democrats will likely regain control of the House after Trump spent his first two years back in office with a slim House majority.
How Goes the Senate?
Decision Desk HQ shows Democrats with an 80 percent chance of winning the House and a 58 percent chance of taking the Senate.
“The House is almost certainly going to go Democratic,” GOP strategist Dan Judy told The Hill, adding that the big question is how large the new majority will be. “The question is, is it a huge wave or more of a pretty solid victory?”
However, author Niall Stanage also said Democrats fear they might not be able to take control of the U.S. Senate.
“It’s amazing that the Senate is even a conversation,” Judy, the Republican strategist, told The Hill.
But Democrats haven’t taken a Senate flip for granted.
Democrats have lived through the 2016 presidential race and other past elections when polling leads didn’t necessarily lead to victory, and are somewhat wary.
Others remember the Ann Selzer poll from the final days of the 2024 race, in which the normally gold-standard poll showed a Kamala Harris lead in Iowa, which turned out significantly off the mark.
After that, Trump sued Selzer, who has since announced her retirement from polling.
The Hill noted that many Democrats worry polling has become less reliable, partly because of “a perception that some conservative-leaning demographic groups are becoming less willing to complete surveys.”
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) trails her Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, in the polls.
However, Democrats remember that Collins was behind her Democratic opponent in the polls six years ago and went on to win.
Many feel the same about the Texas Senate race, where polls show Democrat James Talerico leading, although, as The Hill says, the Democrats “know how often their hopes have been dashed in statewide races in the Lone Star State.”
Republicans also have a fundraising advantage, which lets the GOP spend more at the last minute in close races.
GOP: The Polls Are Wrong
Trump himself, as he long has, has been saying that the polls are wrong and “rigged”; he’s actually popular, and his party will win.
House Speaker Mike Johnson also said this week that the polls are not correct.
“I’m telling you, these polls are off. All of them,” the Speaker said.
According to Time magazine, there’s an interesting dynamic among political operatives in Washington: Republicans say the polls are wrong and seem to be undercounting Republican voters. Democrats… are showing “giddy optimism mixed with an equal measure of trepidation.”
“We’ve all been burned,” one former Democratic campaign staffer told the publication.
Time noted, however, that while polling has underestimated Trump’s strength in all three of his presidential campaigns, it hasn’t made similar misses in midterm elections.
In fact, Democrats performed better than expected in the 2022 midterm election, even gaining a Senate seat and losing fewer House seats than expected.
Polling also underestimated Democratic candidates in the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia a year ago, where Democrats won both.
Time pointed to another reason to believe the polls are somewhere close to accurate: both parties’ behavior.
“While Republicans insist polls are underestimating their support, their allocation of resources suggests they believe what the polls in key battlegrounds are telling them.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
