U.S. President Donald Trump’s Russian diesel deal is facing criticism amid U.S. price hikes and demands from both sides of the political spectrum.
The latest data, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, shows prices climbed to $6.352 per gallon on October 26, up from $6.199 on October 5. The next survey is slated for publication on November 3.
President Donald Trump delivers remarks before signing an executive order creating a task force for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, Tuesday, August 5, 2025, in the South Court Auditorium of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building at the White House. (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)
President Donald Trump signs an executive order creating a task force for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, Tuesday, August 5, 2025, in the South Court Auditorium of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building at the White House. Vice President JD Vance attends. (Official White House Photo by Emily J. Higgins.)
Diesel prices are a particular problem because the refined fuel is used for trucks, farming equipment, and construction machinery — so rising prices could also risk pushing up food prices.
President Trump pledged prices would be “COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!”
“Adding hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel fuel to the global markets will lower prices,” a White House official told CBS News.
The Russian Deal Explained
The October 9 deal with Moscow called for some 300,000 plus metric tons of diesel to be delivered to the U.S. and wider global markets.
An additional 500,000 were then slated for release in November, and another 1 million thereafter.
Up to 3 million further metric tons could be delivered in future months, but this depends on the state of Russian refineries.
After a telephone call with Trump, Putin said he was “confident that this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy.”
More Supply?
Kpler data shows that, in reality, Russia does not have a major fuel surplus to ship to foreign customers. Refineries are damaged, and demand is soaring.
The Energy Policy Research Foundation Inc. (EPRINC) argued that this will likely be diverted from existing Russian diesel customers, including Turkey and Brazil.
However, if the full amount is delivered, relief would be of most 34 cents per gallon.
Sensitivity estimates range from 17-68 cents, however. The U.S. also exported roughly 1.4 million barrels of diesel a day in October.
“The price relief would be measured in cents,” EPRINC noted.
“I don’t see this as very likely to have a significant impact on global diesel markets,” said Vijay Vaitheeswaran, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
However, signs suggest Russia is ramping up production.
On October 31, Bloomberg reported that Moscow will continue its diesel export ban through next January, with some exemptions.
Novak suggested that this would raise export quotas to 2.15 million metric tons in November.
Russia will continue its export controls until the end of 2026. Refinery utilization has increased by 25% since early October.
Russia’s Energy Ministry did not comment on the matter.
Mystery Tanker Destination
Initial shipping data suggested that the Agioi Fanendes would arrive in New York on November 7. It loaded 40,000 metric tons of diesel on October 22 in Primorsk.
Later, Eastern Mediterranean Maritime, the tanker’s manager, told Reuters, “The discharging port or country is not yet nominated and finalized.”
Bipartisan Complaints Over Diesel Deal
OFAC General License 135 authorizes certain diesel transactions and selected imports into the U.S. under specific sanctions rules until April 7, 2027.
However, not all American politicians believe the deal is legally or morally justified.
Six Republicans and six Democrats wrote to Trump on October 13, asking him to abandon the deal.
The group includes Susan Collins, Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn from the Republicans and Jeanne Shaheen and Dick Durbin from the Democrats.
In a joint letter released last month, the cross-party group complained that the deal was “a gift to our adversary and a betrayal of our Allies; it should be rescinded.”
Senator Richard Blumenthal from Connecticut prompted discussion on October 27, after publicly requesting that two shipping companies recall their tankers.
He has argued that the new trade remains illegal due to the 2022 Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act, claiming that “no such license can supersede clear, unambiguous law.
Kyiv Concerned Over Future
Ukraine continues to voice concerns about how this agreement could help fill Moscow’s war chest.
“If Ukraine continues attacking Russian oil infrastructure, it now risks upsetting Trump directly,” wrote Cory Alpert, a researcher at the University of Melbourne, for the Lowy Institute think tank.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told a press conference on October 16 that this deal will not make up for the impact of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.
“But it will put more money straight into Putin’s pocket to fund this war,” he stated.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
