Tehran is still at war with the United States, and Donald Trump has not signaled his next move, so it seems even more problems are headed its way. Iran could face natural gas shortages this winter after strikes damaged four gas processing plants. The government warned that the daily shortfall during peak winter demand could reach 430 million cubic meters, compared with around 300 million cubic meters in previous years.
“If the level of consumption is high, gas cuts may occur all over the country, including in Tehran,” government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told a news conference on November 10.
President Donald Trump delivers delivers remarks to troops at Al Udeid Air Base, Thursday, May 15, 2025, in Doha, Qatar. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
President Donald Trump hosts a bilateral meeting with President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, Monday, April 14, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
Approximately 230 million cubic meters of daily gas production capacity was lost following the March 18 strikes, and repairs remain incomplete.
Before the war with the U.S. and Israel, which began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iran had already experienced gas shortages and power cuts due to aging infrastructure and international sanctions.
The U.S. is currently enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports.
A fire also broke out on November 10 at a platform in Phase 14 of South Pars, part of the world’s largest offshore natural gas field, which Iran shares with Qatar.
The blaze was extinguished, and authorities began investigating whether a gas leak or operational incident was responsible.
National Iranian Gas Company Managing Director Saeed Tavakoli said on Wednesday that “the stability of the country’s gas supply has been maintained, and there are no issues for consumers.”
The National Iranian Gas Company warned that 11 of Iran’s 31 provinces could experience supply problems.
Those most vulnerable include Mazandaran, Golestan and North Khorasan. Mohajerani also warned that towns toward the end of the gas distribution network could experience low pressure, particularly in northeastern Iran.
Tavakoli told the Oil Ministry’s news service that “without public cooperation and participation, passing through the upcoming winter, given the existing conditions and limitations, will be very difficult.” The gas company is encouraging residents to maintain indoor temperatures at 68 degrees Fahrenheit.
“To get through the approaching winter, a nationwide effort is essential … to reduce gas consumption by at least 10 percent,” Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on October 25.
First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref warned on November 2 that gas prices could rise for consumers who failed to conserve supplies, citing “imbalances accumulated over previous years and war-related damages.”
One student in Ardebil, northwestern Iran, lamented that the radiators at her school remained off despite snowfall on November 9. “Things have reached the point where some students are bringing travel blankets with them,” she told Iran International.
National Iranian Gas Company supply coordination director Houshang Seydali said the company’s priority was preventing interruptions to household supplies.
Restrictions could be imposed on other consumers, with alternative fuels provided where possible.
Ali-Akbar Alvandian, secretary of the Cement Industry Employers’ Association, said gas supplies to cement plants had been cut in late October.
The industry had been receiving between five and six million cubic meters of gas daily, against demand of around 28 million.
Producers have been forced to rely on mazut, a heavy fuel oil, with transportation costs effectively doubling their fuel expenses.
Natural gas is Iran’s largest source of fuel for electricity generation. It accounted for approximately 85 percent of the country’s electricity production in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
On November 3, acting Oil Minister Hamid Bovard said Iran had stockpiled more than three billion liters of liquid fuel to help ensure thermal power plants did not face fuel shortages during the winter months.
Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on November 5. Rezaei said that discussions were held regarding “the construction of gas pipelines from Russia to Iran” with the proposed infrastructure intended to help Iran address domestic shortages and facilitate the sale of Russian gas to neighboring countries.
Since 2007, Rezaei has been subject to an Interpol Red Notice, due to claims he was involved in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.
“The agreement is almost finalized,” Bovard said on October 25, referring to the proposed gas swap arrangement with Russia. Iran’s ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, said on November 7 that a short-term arrangement could involve Russia supplying northern Azerbaijan, with Azerbaijan delivering equivalent volumes to Iran. He said a longer-term pipeline project could take two to three years to develop.
Hedayatollah Khademi, a former member of the Iranian parliament’s Energy Commission, recently criticized years of neglect of shared gas fields and warned of an estimated daily shortfall of around 400 million cubic meters. Despite Iran’s enormous gas reserves, he said that “in winter we have to hope that the weather does not turn cold.”
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
