Key Points: The US Air Force’s current fighter fleet, numbering around 1,610 aircraft (predominantly non-stealth F-16Cs), raises questions about its adequacy for a potential great power war against China or Russia.
-Critical challenges include alarmingly low readiness rates across the Air Force (only ~62% of all aircraft mission-capable), the high maintenance demands of advanced stealth fighters like the F-35 and F-22, and the vulnerability of forward airbases.
-Achieving air superiority against peer adversaries is not guaranteed, as the Ukraine war demonstrates. Future success likely depends less on sheer numbers and more on integrated capabilities, stealth, pilot expertise, and base survivability.
Does the U.S. Air Force Have Enough Fighters to Win a Great Power War?
U.S. Air Force fighter jets make up 32 percent of the total force of airplanes in the service branch. There are roughly 1,610 fighters in the Air Force fleet, most of which are non-stealth F-16Cs.
Would that be enough fighters to win a modern air war with China or Russia?
If that contingency happens, the Air Force will have to get creative with force protection. That means the air bases deployed forward in Europe or in East Asia must be hardened from attack and runways better protected.
No Guarantee that U.S. Will Achieve Air Superiority with Fighter Jets
The Air Force would have to achieve air dominance in the first days of warfare. This would not be assured in a multi-threat environment. The war in Ukraine is showing that neither side has created air superiority. The Russians have backed off and often launch glide bombs within their country’s air space. Ukraine has F-16s, but they typically stay out of Russian anti-aircraft range and eliminate enemy missiles and drones instead of dogfighting.
Here is What the Force Structure Looks Like
What does the United States bring to the fight? According to the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft, the Air Force has 762 F-16Cs. There are 302 F-35As, 218 F-15Es, 183 F-22As, 137 F-15Cs, and 8 F-15EXs.
However, a significant number of these airplanes are not on active status. They also could be stationed state-side and not able to get to a fight overseas immediately. Also, they could be assigned to reserve or national guard units.
Readiness Is Down to Alarming Levels
One problem for the entire Air Force is the readiness of its airplane inventory. Around six in ten aircraft are not combat effective and are not in active status. The total number of Air Force airplanes of all models is 5,025. Only 62 percent are mission-capable. That means 1,900 planes are out of commission.
Plus, fighters can be extra finicky. They require ample amounts of maintenance, repairs, and spare parts. They are also expensive to keep in the air, especially the stealth warbirds such as the F-35A and F-22.
Practice Virtual Warfare
The Air Force spends significant time war-gaming and conducting simulations and predictive analytics on how many fighters it would take to win a conflict with China or Russia. This means finding out how advanced the opposition is and how the enemy would address the number of fighter jets the Air Force could put in the sky immediately. Much of this calculus depends on where the airplanes are stationed and how fast they could get in a fight if called upon.
Times are different in 2025. During the Global War on Terror, the Air Force did not have to worry about air superiority or a multi-threat environment. There were no enemy jets to dogfight or defenses to avoid. The Americans could fly close-air support missions at will without getting shot down.
However, Russia and China would be formidable opponents with modern air defenses and their own stealth fighters. It would come down to the expertise of individual pilots. While the Chinese aviators had no combat experience, the Russians had plenty. American aviators would need to be at the top of their game.
Go to War with What You Have
So, this critical time needs to be examined closely by Air Force brass.
Does this mean that new 6th-generation fighters like the F-47 need to hasten their arrival?
That is one area that force planners are trying to project. The F-47 probably won’t be ready until 2030, so the F-35 and F-22 are the mainstays for radar-evading combat. The new F-15EX is coming online but this is not a stealth model.
Major General Joseph Kunkel, who is chief of force design for the Air Force, has much to ponder at his job. Will the current force of fighters be enough to win?
“Instead,” Kunkel said, “combat success is more about integrating capabilities and systems together, using autonomy and all-domain sensing, for example. Those are things that we’re finding as game-changers because they address specific challenges to the force,” he explained.
Kunkel is interested in protecting overseas bases that house the American jets. It would be great if U.S. fighters could take off from roads or highways if the main runways are destroyed or damaged. Indeed, the Chinese have missiles that are aimed at the U.S. air bases on Guam, for example. The DF-26 is nicknamed the “Guam Express.”
The United States would need strategic surprise, too, since neither side is likely to have longer-duration air superiority. Day One of war would be all important. That means the fighters must fly with U.S. bombers like the new B-21 Raider and the B-2 Spirit for stealth strikes. These pilots may only get one chance to fly against Chinese or Russian targets, and then the adversaries would launch huge flights of fighters to defend their homeland.
So, it is not just about the number of available fighter jets. Whichever side creates a tactical and operational advantage in the early days can make a surprise attack that would eliminate the other side’s airplanes, but then the dog-fighting would slow down, and fighter jets would stay out of range.
The Air Force will need to define the threats of these new environments and attempt to predict what the air battle will look like and what fighter jets are available to fight. The early days will show which side has the advantage, and American pilots must realize that they could get shot down over enemy territory – a contingency that no one wants to face. Plus, the Air Force could learn that it doesn’t have enough fighters and must rely on stealth and capability integration if the war advances like battle planners expect it to.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
This first appeared earlier in the year and is being recirculated due to reader interest.
