America is Conventionally Dominant; Don’t Start Nuclear Testing Again
United States President Donald Trump recently created a stir when he suggested that the US should start nuclear weapons testing again. Trump was apparently motivated by Russia’s test of a cruise missile with, ostensibly, a nuclear engine.
Tu-160 Bomber Russian Air Force Photo
Nuclear propulsion is not the same thing as a nuclear payload, however. The furor appears to have died down as the Energy Department, which oversees the US nuclear stockpile, confirmed that no further nuclear testing is imminent.
It did, however, raise the possibility for a few days that the US might engage in a renewed nuclear arms race with China or Russia.
It is indeed true that the US nuclear arsenal requires modernization. Much of the equipment dates to the Cold War. But that update need not mean adding more warheads.
And renewed testing would be a mistake if it encouraged China and Russia to do the same.
Nuclear restraint strongly serves US national interests—and not just a general global interest in fewer nuclear weapons.
Instead, US conventional power is far ahead of its rivals, so it is strongly in America’s interest to deter other states from building nuclear weapons as a counterbalance.
America is Conventionally Ahead
The US has the world’s largest economy and spends vastly more on defense than any other country. In fact, the US spends more than double the combined defense spending of China and Russia. Cumulated over decades, this returns a significant advantage.
It is correct that China’s rapid growth and corresponding military expansion put America into relative decline in relation to China. However, America is not in absolute decline, and it should be able to project power into most areas of the world, barring East Asia, for several more decades.
And US allies in East Asia, backed by US power, should be able to limit Chinese expansionism for a while yet. To give just one example of how far ahead of China the US still is, the US has eleven carrier strike groups, while China has only two. It will take decades for China to catch up.
In relation to Russia, the US is not in relative decline. Russia is a country in relative decline. Its war against Ukraine has been a disaster. Even if it manages to beat Ukraine, it has suffered over one million casualties already. It will spend years, perhaps decades, rebuilding the thousands of military vehicles it has lost in war.
Its economy is militarized and sanctioned. Productive civilian growth will not return in force until the current Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is out of power.
Russia under Putin is aggressive, but that is not the same thing as powerful. Russia’s economy is smaller than Canada’s, and its struggles in Ukraine reveal that it is not, in fact, an especially capable military power.
As William Wohlforth and Steven Brooks note, US power is far more deeply entrenched than many analysts grasp. The world is not multipolar.
Avoid a Nuclear Arms Race to Bolster America’s Conventional Lead
An obvious recourse for conventionally inferior states is to build nuclear weapons as compensation. Both North Korea and Pakistan have done this in their respective competitions. Neither country can catch up conventionally to South Korea or India, so they will likely use nuclear weapons in a conflict to equalize battlefield asymmetry.
Russia, too, has increasingly emphasized nuclear weapons in its doctrine as its conventional power has flailed in Ukraine.
Putin has made nuclear threats for years, likely as a display of bravado given Russia’s decline into a quagmire in Ukraine.
America, by contrast, has emphasized nonproliferation and nuclear restraint since the end of the Cold War. US conventional capabilities mean America does not need to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons.
Instead, it is good American policy to delegitimize nuclear weapons, to insist they are uniquely horrible, ‘taboo’ weapons which should never be used. This bolsters America’s conventional lead.
The Nuclear Taboo is Good for the World and Good for the US
Happily, America’s insistence on nuclear non-use is a good thing for both the world and the US. Certainly, US interests are the primary cause of that push, but it should be obvious to everyone that a less nuclear world is also a huge boon for mankind. Trump’s call for nuclear testing could incentivize US opponents to invest in weapons that would undercut American conventional superiority. That would be a mistake.
Author: Dr. Robert Kelly, Pusan National University
Dr. Robert E. Kelly is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Pusan National University in South Korea. His research interests focus on Security in Northeast Asia, U.S. foreign policy, and international financial institutions. He has written for outlets including Foreign Affairs, the European Journal of International Relations, and the Economist, and he has spoken on television news services including BBC and CCTV. His personal website/blog is here; his Twitter page is here.
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1KoolKat
November 5, 2025 at 6:56 am
At the end of the Cold War, Russia focused on modernizing its nuclear arsenal while neglecting its conventional forces, whereas the U.S. took the opposite approach.
As a result, the U.S. maintains unmatched conventional military strength but faces increasing vulnerabilities in its strategic nuclear forces.
U.S. nuclear modernization has experienced significant delays due to budget overruns, workforce shortages, and aging infrastructure. These setbacks threaten the credibility of US strategic deterrence as adversaries like Russia and China accelerate their programs.
By the end of this decade, the US could face a challenge to the existing nuclear balance of power from multiple nuclear peer adversaries.