Key Points and Summary – China’s DF-21D “carrier-killer” anti-ship ballistic missile has worried U.S. naval strategists for years, raising serious questions about the survivability of aircraft carriers in a potential conflict.
-This analysis explores the threat posed by this road-mobile missile and the U.S. Navy’s countermeasures, including the battle-tested Aegis Combat System and the new MQ-25 Stingray tanker drone.
-However, China is set to unveil a new generation of even more advanced hypersonic anti-ship missiles, which could overwhelm current defenses and force the U.S. to prepare for a day when it could lose a carrier.
U.S. Navy Preparing to Be Rocked by Chinese DF-21D Ship-killing Missiles
What if the U.S. Navy’s surface fleet is becoming obsolete due to anti-ship missiles, especially those from China?
Future warfare in the Indo-Pacific is shaping up to be a missile fight. U.S. aircraft carriers could be destroyed before they launch fighter jets, and their escort vessels would also be in danger.
Does this mean the Chinese have the upper hand in denying access to sea lanes and reducing the efficacy of maritime patrols by the U.S. Navy in East Asia?
It certainly looks that way – particularly with anti-ship missiles like China’s DF-21D carrier-killer. This missile has worried American admirals, sea power strategists, and Members of Congress for years.
Not So Fast – the Americans Have Protection
To be sure, the U.S. Navy has countermeasures in place.
Carrier strike groups can sail out of range and then extend the combat radius of fighter jets with a new aerial tanker drone called the MQ-25 Stingray.
This will help the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets and the F-35C Lightning IIs fly farther to attack China’s own ships while the American carrier strike groups maintain a safe distance away from ship killers like the DF-21D.
The Aegis Combat System Is Battle-Tested
Carrier strike groups also have destroyers and frigates with the highly effective Aegis Combat System.
This anti-missile and anti-aircraft screen protects the surface fleet. Aegis enjoyed a perfect record (there were some close calls) recently when Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi terrorists launched missiles and drones at Navy carriers and ships to little effect.
The Americans learned many lessons from those engagements, namely that air defense interceptors ran out fast against the Houthis.
China Has More Expertise With Anti-Ship Missiles
The Navy also believes the Chinese will be better trained with improved anti-ship missiles, such as the DF-21D.
This missile launcher is road-mobile, allowing it to have some “shoot and scoot” capability, which can increase its survivability. It also depends on solid propellant, which is more efficient than liquid-fueled missiles that require time to fill with fuel. Solid-fueled missiles are ready to launch immediately at a moment’s notice and remain on alert longer with the propellant pre-loaded. They are easier to maintain and have a longer service life.
The base model DF-21 was first deployed in 1991. The anti-ship “D” variant came about in 2006.
The “C” version is nuclear-capable.
The DF-21D is a medium-range missile with a combat range of over 2,140 kilometers. Of course, as as all things about China’s military, estimates do vary.
The DF-21D is 35 feet long with a diameter of 4.6 feet. The launch weight is 32,400 pounds with a 1,322-pound payload.
It has an inertial guidance system that is highly accurate.
The motor has two stages.
“The DF-21C/D missile is placed inside a cylinder-shaped container/launcher [TEL], with its nose extending outside of the launcher. The missile container/launcher is in horizontal position when traveling and a vertical position during launch. At the bottom of the container/launcher, there are four large hydraulically operated stabilizers, which are lowered in preparation for the missile launch,” according to ArmyRecognition.com.
The mobile launcher can be transported quickly and efficiently from one location to another. This action can be adjusted to various combat situations, especially those involving attacks from enemy stealth fighter jets or bombers.
DF-21D Has Been Tested for the Last 11 Years
China has been testing the DF-21D at notional targets since at least 2014. That year, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Forces claimed they destroyed a target that represented a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier.
The DF-21D launcher was deployed in the Gobi Desert and fired two missiles during a war game to simulate the destruction of at least one aircraft carrier.
What would happen in the real world if the DF-21D were successful in damaging or even sinking a carrier?
The U.S. Navy and Air Force would likely conduct a massive retaliation attack at China’s own carriers and strike group vessels.
The Air Force would conduct air strikes against other mobile missile launchers using stealth fighters and bombers, such as the F-35, F-22, and B-2. It could mean all-out warfare until diplomatic efforts could create a cease-fire.
However, the United States has been aware of Chinese carrier-killing missiles since at least 2006. The Navy has simulated battle environments during drills that prepare for counter-measures against their use.
The Aegis system is combat-tested, and Naval personnel are prepared to defend against anti-ship missiles.
New Ship-Killing Missiles On the Way
Meanwhile, the Chinese are never satisfied.
On September 3, China will hold a massive celebration to mark the 80th anniversary of its victory over Japan in World War II. This will culminate in a military parade in Beijing.
Photos are circulating online that suggest China has even more new anti-ship missiles that it will showcase during the festivities. These are called the YJ-15, YJ-17, YJ-19, and YJ-20. Newsweek wrote that “YJ is the abbreviation of Ying Ji, meaning ‘Eagle Strike’ in Chinese, and is used for a range of Chinese anti-ship missiles, which can be launched from ships or aircraft.”
These are likely hypersonic weapons that can be maneuvered in flight. If the YJs are confirmed by U.S. intelligence, China would have even more capabilities to sink an aircraft carrier. The YJ variants could be ramjet or scramjet hypersonic projectiles that the Aegis system may not be able to defend against.
More information will be released through various “China Power” reports conducted by the Department of Defense and Congress, allowing us to learn more about these new missiles. However, this is not a favorable development for the Americans. Ship-killers are a considerable part of China’s anti-access/ area denial strategy, and the U.S. Navy could be on its back heels with these new missiles.
They may not be fully operational, but they will someday be deployed to full effect. The Americans may have to prepare for a day when they could lose an aircraft carrier to ship-killing missiles.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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Charles R. Anderson
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Any nation that is successful in destroying an USA aircraft carrier will be completely destroyed shortly after they do it.