The 2026 midterm elections are just over a week away, and Democrats are in a strong position to retake at least one, and possibly both, houses of Congress.
According to The Conversation, which cited Nate Silver’s polling data, Democrats are “overwhelming favorites” to regain control of the House, and now have a three-in-four chance of winning back control of the Senate.
President Donald Trump delivers remarks at a Salute to America Celebration, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines, Iowa. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
President Donald J. Trump attends a Rose Garden Lunch for first responders Thursday, October 15, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)
Silver, who published an aggregation of polls, sees the Democrats leading on the “generic ballot” by 9.5 points.
Silver’s average also shows President Donald Trump’s net approval rating at -24.3 points, an all-time low in his presidency.
It’s also the worst net approval rating for any president at this stage of his presidency since Harry Truman.
How It Might Go
NBC News Decision Desk also published its own analysis this week on where the midterm elections might go.
NBC said the House “appears to be Democrats’ to lose,” with Republicans holding only a slim House majority in the current Congress, the president unpopular, and the GOP way behind on the generic ballot.
NBC predicted Democrats “could add anywhere from a handful of seats to several dozen to their count.” The analysis added that thanks to redistricting efforts around the country, Democrats “will have to reach further into states and districts Trump won to make big gains.”
Even so, the political winds have shifted since 2024, when Trump swept back into office after winning every swing state and assembling a coalition that looked very different from the one that brought him into power eight years earlier.
A Few Different Scenarios
The Decision Desk laid out a few scenarios for how next Tuesday night could go.
If the polls come in as they look, the analysis said, the Democrats would win 238 seats, well above the 218 needed for a House majority.
In a scenario where polls underestimate Republicans, NBC found that Democrats would still likely win a majority, with 220 seats compared to 215 for the GOP.
“Given polling misses in recent elections, it is possible that polling is overstating popular support for the Democrats,” Decision Desk says.
Another scenario, NBC said, is that House Republicans “outrun the environment,” in which case the GOP would keep a one-vote majority in the House.
This could put House control in jeopardy if vacancies occur due to illness, death, or resignation, which tend to happen in every Congress.
And speaking of special elections, NBC also said that if the last two years’ special elections serve as a bellwether, Democrats will likely earn an even larger House majority, potentially reaching 263 seats.
Will It Be a Blue Wave?
This week, The New York Times also examined whether a “blue wave,” in which Democrats gain a large number of seats, is expected on November 3.
It was part of an ongoing feature in the newspaper that assembled several election experts, including Nate Silver himself, to look at how the midterms are shaping up.
The polling, the Times says, “suggests an extremely favorable environment for Democrats,” although polls sometimes miss. But five of the six experts told the newspaper that they expect Democrats to win both houses of Congress next week.
All six predicted a Democratic House, with all but one predicting a Democratic Senate; commentator Perry Bacon, Jr. predicted a 50/50 Senate, which would keep the GOP in control.
“My heart says I would rather not be disappointed again,” Bacon said in the Times analysis. “I’ll go with the heart and predict a solid Democratic win — but not an epic blowout.
Each expert predicted the composition of the new Congress, with Silver forecasting 240 Democrats in the House and 52 in the Senate, which was the best result for Democrats among the predictions. Patrick Ruffini, a longtime Republican pollster, projected a House majority of 234 Democrats and 51 Democratic senators.
Bacon noted that while the state of play hasn’t changed much throughout the fall, the lack of improvement has made things harder for Republicans.
“What’s changed for the G.O.P. is that nothing has changed,” Bacon writes. “Gas prices are still high, the war and scandals continue, the president is doing nothing to help his party, and Republican spending hasn’t moved the needle.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
