If Democrats have a big night in the midterm elections in early November, President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a war in Iran will be a major reason why.
The war has been unpopular since it began, for several reasons.
U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors assigned to the 27th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron and Philippine Air Force FA-50PH light jet fighters conduct joint combined exchange training, above Basa Air Force Base, Phillipines, on Aug. 9, 2024. Joint combined exchange training is critical to enhancing U.S. and Philippine Air Force interoperability in a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Mitchell Corley)
U.S. Air Force Gen. Kevin B. Schneider, Pacific Air Forces commander, pilots the lead F-22 Raptor rendezvousing with a C-17 Globemaster III, both from Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, during a mission off the coast of O‘ahu, April 8, 2025. PACAF provides ready and lethal forces to ensure stability and security in the Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Emerson Nuñez)
Trump ran for office three times, promising to avoid new Middle East wars; he strongly implied the war would be short, and the war’s energy disruptions have driven gas prices up.
Unlike most gas price increases in recent history, this one can be traced to specific presidential actions, much as Trump has tried to blame Ukraine for gas price spikes.
But few people are asking what will happen with Iran if Democrats end up in control of one or both houses of Congress, and assuming the war is still going on in some form when the new Congress is seated in January?
Brett McGurk, who has worked in national security for four presidents and is now a CNN global affairs analyst, wrote an op-ed for CNN’s website this week on what could happen next with Iran if Democrats regain at least one house of Congress.
From Iraq to Iran
McGurk begins the op-ed by remembering an episode in early 2007, shortly after the Democrats had delivered a midterm election wipeout during George W. Bush’s second term, amid widespread voter dissatisfaction about the Iraq War and Bush’s conduct of it.
Working in the Bush Administration at the time, McGurk remembers that Bush had proposed a “surge” in Iraq, which Democrats in the incoming congressional majority vocally opposed.
What happened next was that Bush shifted tactics, but still went ahead with the surge, even vetoing Democratic efforts to cut funding or pull forces out of Iraq.
It’s not an exact analogy, as the U.S. has not been at war in Iran for nearly as long as it was in Iraq during the Bush Administration, nor has this war seen nearly as many casualties among American troops.
Bush was not talking in 2006 and 2007, as Trump is two decades later, about wanting the war to be over soon.
But the situations share some things in common, including a stubborn president who doesn’t like to reverse himself.
As McGurk notes, Congress also remains outside the military chain of command, giving Trump wide latitude even if he no longer has Congressional majorities.
What Could Happen in 2027
As McGurk notes, the Washington Post recently reported that Iranian officials are eyeing the midterm elections and stepping up attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, with the specific intent of hurting Trump’s position.
However, the former adviser writes, “Iran may discover that weakening an American president politically is not the same as constraining him strategically.”
A few scenarios could unfold if Democrats win control of Congress, the war is still ongoing, and Trump wants to keep it going.
Congress would try to restrict military operations in Iran, but Trump could veto that, with Democrats probably not earning large enough majorities to override such a veto.
The author also notes a long history, going back to the Nixon Administration and Vietnam, of presidents pursuing military adventures despite congressional disapproval.
A Democratic Congressional majority would have other levers to pull, such as “investigations, hearings, and potentially efforts to restrict military operations.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will likely face regular hostile questioning on Capitol Hill, with late-breaking chatter that Congress could even pursue impeachment of the “Secretary of War.” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), an outgoing Republican Congressman who has broken with Trump on Iran and other issues, has even spoken of trying to pursue a Hegseth impeachment push during the lame duck session.
Trump’s Move
What will Trump do in Iran now that the midterms are behind him and no elections remain in his presidency?
As McGurk notes, he could pull back, declare victory, and bring U.S. service members home.
He could keep up the current strategy of somewhere between war and peace, with a continuing Strait of Hormuz stand-off and occasional flare-ups.
Or he could try to strike a decisive blow, and then call that a win.
“Whatever Trump may decide, this path — a new military campaign, tied to a diplomatic achievement — will be a tempting one,” McGurk writes, though he notes that keeping up the current strategy would likely be his advice if he were working in the White House now.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
