The Democratic Party leads the Republican Party by 11 percentage points, according to a new poll released Wednesday, 21st October, by The New York Times and Siena University.
Unlike the congressional generic ballot, a general party-preference metric, the NYT/Siena poll asked likely voters about specific House candidates in their district.
White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia holds first press briefing in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House, Tuesday, October 13, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Andrea Hanks)
The same poll also found a record-low approval rating for President Donald Trump, the third in as many days.
A Large Lead of an 11-point victory would be the largest in a national vote since 2008.
It would give Democrats a significant House majority and could also threaten Republican Senate seats on Tuesday, 3rd November.
Of course, the only poll that matters is the one on election day, and pre-election surveys have been wrong during the Trumpian era of U.S. politics.
In 2016 and 2020, Democratic support was overestimated, leading to a Democratic defeat in the former and a closer-than-expected election in the latter.
However, the gulf between the two parties in the NYT/Siena poll is so large that a similar overestimation would still yield a significant Democratic victory.
Disgruntled Republicans
Trump’s standing among non-MAGA Republicans is troublesome, with just 47% backing his performance as President.
A Democratic victory next month depends partly on disengaged GOP voters switching to Democrats or, at the very least, staying home on Election Day.
The GOP has only two weeks to win over supporters reluctant to vote for Republican candidates.
President Donald J. Trump boards Marine One on the Ellipse in Washington, D.C., Friday, July 17, 2026, en route Joint Base Andrews, Maryland for a trip to New York. (Official White House Photo by Andrea Hanks)
Progress so far has been minimal, with the deficit to the Democrats remaining large and Election Day just under a fortnight away.
However, it’s a natural support base that may turn out for Republican candidates, even if enthusiasm for the President remains low.
The question remains prevalent. According to the NYT/Siena poll, Democrats lead by nine percentage points among registered voters who’ve previously voted in a midterm or primary; the party leads by 14 percentage points among those who are certain to vote, or have already done so.
Among groups divided by likelihood of voting, the GOP leads only those who say they are “not at all likely to vote.”
Approval Falling
President Trump’s approval remains low among likely voters, with just 36% of likely voters backing his performance in office.
That compares to 59% who said they disapproved, marking the Republican’s lowest approval rating of any NYT/Siena poll over either of his two terms.
More than two-thirds of independent voters disapproved of how Trump has handled his presidency, with likely voters leaning toward their Democratic candidate by 11 percentage points in the final NYT/Siena poll before next month’s midterm elections.
With around three-quarters of respondents describing the current economic situation as fair or poor, many blame Trump for the economic decline, with 69% disapproving of how of handles the cost of living.
65% also disapprove of his handling of the conflict with Iran, while nearly three-quarters say they disapprove of his handling of gas prices, which have remained high ever since the Iran war began in February.
Record Lows
The poll is the third in as many days to show Trump’s approval rating at a record low in either of his two terms. On Monday, a Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll found the President’s approval at 33%, with 66% of Americans disapproving of his performance in office.
More than half (52%) strongly disapproved of the President’s tenure so far.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released 24 hours later cast an even grimmer outlook for the GOP, with only 31% of Americans approving of the President’s performance in office.
Part of the problem for President Trump is his own unpopularity.
In a Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll asking whether voters would prefer an opposing Democratic-led Congress or a Trump-supporting Republican one, registered voters strongly favored the former, 58% to 39%.
Likewise, in the Reuters/Ipsos survey, 47% of respondents said they intended to vote for the Democrats, compared with 35% who said they would vote for the Republican Party.
The NYT/Siena poll was conducted from Monday, 12th October, to Monday, 19th October. The survey was conducted by phone with 3,494 voters and has a margin of error of +/- 1.9 percentage points.
About the Author: Shay Bottomley
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist. He has written for the Western Standard, Business Insider, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo.
