Call it the incredibly shrinking majority, and US President Donald Trump clearly has a problem on his hands. Just 14 days before the American people vote in the 2026 Midterms, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted October 16 to 19, joins a growing list of negative polls. All of this points to an unmistakable conclusion: the odds that the Republicans will walk away with majorities after November 3, certainly in the U.S. House of Representatives and possibly in the U.S. Senate, are diminishing with each passing day.
For starters, the president’s approval rating has collapsed to an all-new low of just 31 percent.
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at the General Motors Proving Ground in Milford, Michigan, Monday, July 27, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
Caleb Larson reports on an Iran war entering its sixth month: a Pentagon cost figure disputed as an undercount, Republicans tepid on more funding, and Trump warning of a ‘last chance’ and ‘decapitation.’ Reuters reports tankers running the Houthi blockade dark while others divert, and The Guardian says Riyadh may be preparing a land offensive.
At the same time, the Reuters/Ipsos poll highlights that Democrats have gained an astonishing 12-point lead in the congressional generic ballot.
A Declining Share of Support
Republican voters, on the other hand, are feeling dispirited and demoralized just two weeks before the Midterms occur. Sure, many have voted early.
But things weren’t looking so sunny when many states held early voting earlier this month.
Specifically, the average GOP voter reports having lost public confidence in the economy.
Remember, the economy was the one issue that every American who voted for Donald Trump in 2024 would handle properly.
Generally, average voters associate Republicans with better economic policies.
So, registered GOP voters reporting a loss of confidence just two weeks before the Midterm elections signals a decisive shift in sentiment, and likely electoral momentum, to the Democrats’ side.
According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll data, 68 percent of registered voters they polled disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.
Of that cohort, 37 percent self-identified as Republicans disapprove of Trump’s economic leadership (or lack thereof).
Just two weeks ago, when many states initiated early voting, Democrats led Republicans by only seven points. The fact that it has widened to 12 points with two more weeks to go is a harbinger of doom.
That’s the largest Democratic lead recorded in this election cycle, according to Reuters/Ipsos.
However, the New York Post recently reported that Democrats were overwhelmingly beating Republicans in mail-in voting.
TargetSmart and NBC News report that 54 percent of mail-in ballots came from registered Democrats, while only 30 percent came from Republicans.
Here’s where things get catastrophic.
Losing Women (and Men) at Alarming Rates
The female vote, as always, is trending Democratic. But this time it is a major shift.
Fifty percent of registered women voters favor Democrats, whereas only 32 percent support the GOP.
Now for the kicker. Men today are favoring Democrats (albeit by a smaller margin than women).
Reuters/Ipsos finds 40 percent of registered voters favor the Democratic Party’s handling of the economy, while 33 percent still support the GOP plan.
The biggest reason these numbers have collapsed so quickly is the cost of gasoline and other key commodities, which makes life harder for the average American.
More importantly, though, all these negative trends the Republican Party has faced are the direct result of the leader of the GOP, President Donald Trump, deciding to attack the Islamic Republic of Iran on February 28 unilaterally.
Everything awful that has occurred is a direct consequence of that fateful decision.
And the American people, contrary to what the media might say, are savvy enough to see that key link and lay the blame where it belongs.
The Painful Details
Reuters/Ipsos conducted the poll October 16 to 19, surveying 1,679 American adults, 1,279 of whom were registered voters.
This poll had a margin of error of about two points for all adults and around three points for registered voters.
Interestingly, President Trump’s decline from 32 percent to 31 percent is well within the margin of error.
But once you include the five-point widening of the Democratic generic-ballot advantage, and incorporate other data points, like the fact that most Independent voters heavily favor Democrats this year, the trend becomes painfully clear for Republicans.
A Damaged Brand
Because of these negative trends driven solely by the current Republican president, the GOP stands to lose its majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans in the U.S. Senate are at risk (though not as much as Republicans in the House).
In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so any seat losses would hurt.
While Trump’s damaged brand may still carry GOP candidates in deep red states and districts, in the more moderate areas, Trump’s horrific approval ratings and the negative view of how Republicans have managed the economy (and the war that helped slow the economy down) will matter.
Go back to the 37 percent of Republicans who believe Trump dropped the ball on the economy.
That’s what will defeat the Republicans. Not the Democrats.
Their own decisions caused this. Republicans will need to move heaven and earth to mobilize enough voters to overcome the deficit.
The odds are not in their favor.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is the Senior National Security Editor. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert is the co-host for The Mario Nawfal Show on Twitter/X. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, most recently A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). His next book, Fortress Americas: A New Monroe Doctrine (Tucker Carlson Books), is due out December 8. Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
