The midterm elections in the United States are a week away, and President Donald Trump faces a real possibility that his party will lose control of one or both houses of Congress because of his unpopularity.
Why is it happening that way?
According to a new analysis, it’s a familiar economic phenomenon, similar to what happened two years ago.
According to the BBC, what’s happening now mirrors 2024: “The economic numbers aren’t necessarily bad – but the public mood is.”
During most of Joe Biden’s presidency, the stock market was healthy, the economy grew, and unemployment was low.
The problem was that inflation was unusually high, higher than in a generation, and voters noticed. As a result, Trump returned to office, defeating Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the CHCI 47th Annual Legislative Conference, Wednesday, September 18, 2024, at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington, D.C. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)
Kamala Harris. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
However, the dynamic is remarkably similar two years later: the economy is still growing at 2.2 percent, the stock market is still doing well, and unemployment is still low, at 4.2 percent last month.
There has been no recession during Trump’s first term, just as there wasn’t one during Biden’s presidency; the early months of the pandemic in 2020, during Trump’s first term, marked the last official recession in the U.S., though it was also the shortest in history.
But inflation has persisted, especially in the cost of gasoline and groceries. As they did with Biden and Harris, voters have noticed, and they’re blaming Trump.
Promises From Two Years Ago
As the BBC noted, Trump made a lot of hay out of inflation in 2024 and promised to address it if he got back in office.
“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down,” Trump said on the campaign trail in 2024.
However, he hasn’t kept that promise while in office, and the high cost of living remains both a frequent topic of conversation and a common concern for voters heading into the midterm elections.
The BBC notes that the causes of inflation differ somewhat between the Biden and Trump eras.
The inflation that hurt Democrats in 2024 stemmed from the pandemic’s aftermath, though Biden took some blame for his 2021 rescue package and other inflationary legislation.
In Trump’s second term, inflation can be traced to specific actions of his administration, including tariffs and the Iran War, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting oil supplies and causing gasoline and diesel prices to jump.
High diesel prices have also raised shipping costs, pushing up the prices of other goods.
Peter Morici, a University of Maryland economist, told the BBC that “inflation is clearly traceable to Donald Trump,” thanks to the high-profile policies that he has advocated.
“It’s his tariffs and the war. People know that. They see it,” Morici, an economist described as aligned with the Republican Party, told the outlet.
Trump has tried to blame Biden for any economic misfortune during his term, but voters don’t seem to buy it.
What Voters Care About
And ultimately, the cause matters less than the effect.
“Voters are not judging the economy by GDP figures or record highs on the stock market,” the BBC analysis says. “They are judging it by what they pay at the supermarket, petrol prices, and whether they can keep up with the bills.”
The BBC noted another key economic figure: While average hourly earnings have risen 3 percent in the last year, consumer prices have outstripped that, rising by 3.7 percent.
The analysis also quoted Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who worked for Biden’s 2020 campaign, about how voters perceive inflation.
“When economists say inflation comes down, they mean the rate of increase has come down,” the pollster told the BBC. But voters tend to see it differently.
“When voters say inflation has come down, they mean the price has returned to what it was,” She added. “Well, of course, it never returns to what it was.”
As the story also notes, Trump has proposed various measures, including $5,000 checks for every American, should his party win the midterm election.
However, even if the $5,000 check proposal passed, it would almost certainly make inflation much worse than it already is.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
