Losing Congress Due to the Iran War Could Cripple Trump’s Final Two Years – President Donald Trump’s failure to bring the Iran war to a close could soon cost the Republicans more than a handful of seats in November. If the party loses control of Congress, Trump could spend the final years of his presidency with much of his legislative agenda effectively frozen and his administration under relentless pressure and scrutiny.
Six months after the U.S. and Israel first launched strikes against Iran, the conflict has effectively reached a stalemate, has damaged the global economy, put the U.S. military on the back foot with a shortage of precision-guided interceptors and missiles, and become a major political liability for Republicans. President Trump originally predicted that the war in Iran would be a much shorter campaign — one that would last only four or five weeks. But Iran still hasn’t surrendered and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, despite the United States’ best efforts, remains severely disrupted.
B-1B Lancer Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
B-1B Lancer Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
And Republican strategists are now worried that the war could help Democrats take control of the House — and potentially even the Senate. Bloomberg reported on Saturday that some election forecasters now see both chambers at risk, with GOP strategists concerned that Republican voters could simply stay home in November.
Trump’s Numbers Keep Getting Worse
The latest polling doesn’t look good for Trump.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week found Trump’s approval rating at just 33%, matching the lowest level of his second presidency. Only 31% of Americans supported U.S. military action against Iran, down from 37% in March, while Republican support for the war had fallen from 77% to 69%. Some 83% expected U.S. involvement to continue for an extended period.
And other surveys seem to show the same thing.
An Economist/YouGov poll found Democrats holding a particularly large advantage among voters most enthusiastic about participating in the midterms. Among registered voters describing themselves as “extremely enthusiastic,” Democrats led Republicans 60% to 37%. Meanwhile, an AP-NORC poll reported by the Associated Press also showed that roughly two-thirds of Americans believe the Iran war is not worth fighting.
That’s a bad series of polls for Republicans, showing dissatisfaction among independents and declining enthusiasm within their own party.
Republicans Could Lose the House and the Senate
The House has been considered the bigger vulnerability for the Republicans for some time, but the Senate is also becoming competitive for Democrats. Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47, meaning Democrats need to gain four seats to take outright control.
Races in states that would normally give Republicans a substantial cushion seem to be narrowing, with Texas and Iowa now among the contests that are becoming surprisingly competitive.
The Cook Political Report also described this month how the national political environment is becoming particularly tough for Republicans, pointing to President Trump’s low approval ratings and the Iran conflict as the main drivers of the party’s troubles.
Trump’s Legislative Agenda Could Grind to a Halt
For the last six months, the Trump White House has been largely focused on mitigating the damage caused by the Iran war — but the president presumably still has a legislative agenda he had hoped to enact during the final half of his final term.
And every single piece of legislation the president hopes to pass will need to be approved by both the House and Senate. A Democratic House, therefore, could easily block Republican bills spanning everything from taxes and immigration to energy and spending. Trump’s domestic priorities could be over in a matter of months — and arguably, may already be over, given the low chances of substantial and radical new legislation being passed over the next handful of months.
But importantly, control of Congress also means control over appropriations. While a president possesses considerable authority over the executive branch, Congress ultimately determines federal spending through legislation and can attach restrictions and conditions to appropriations.
The Democrats Know It’s Coming
Democrats are clearly aware of the threat facing Trump, and are preparing accordingly. House Democrats are already preparing an extensive new oversight campaign if they win control in November, with Reuters reporting that lawmakers and committee staff have discussed using everything from subpoenas and hearings to document requests in order to investigate and pressure the administration — as well as businesses connected to him.
Potential investigations could involve contracts connected to the Department of Homeland Security, as Democrats attempt to shut down ICE’s aggressive deportation campaign. Corporate donors and Trump-linked financial ventures could also come under scrutiny.
His family, allies, and donors are all about to face enormous pressure — and all the while, the president will be left to govern via executive order.
Between that and his ongoing efforts to force concessions from Tehran, it will be a tough two years for the president and could prove disastrous for the Republicans’ image as we head toward the next presidential election.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
