The 20:1 Paradox: Why the F-35’s Staggering Red Flag Success Still Exposed a Fatal Flaw
At Red Flag 2017, the F-35 Lightning II reportedly achieved a 20:1 kill ratio. On paper, the results are staggering—reinforcing the aircraft’s reputation as a fifth-generation force multiplier. But buried in that success were moments where aggressor F-16 pilots managed simulated kills.
A 35th Fighter Squadron F-16 Fighting Falcon flies near the Korean peninsula during a dogfighting training scenario during exercise Ulchi Freedom Shield 25 at Kunsan Air Base, Republic of Korea, Aug. 20, 2025. UFS25 is a combined, joint, all-domain military training exercise that integrates ground, air, naval, space, cyber and information elements, enhancing readiness through realistic combat simulations. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Landon Gunsauls)
The tactic: overwhelm the F-35 with swarms. The results demonstrated that the F-35’s strength in networked BVR combat is real—but also highlighted a vulnerability when missile capacity and geometry are stressed to the breaking point.
What is Red Flag?
Red Flag, hosted at Nellis AFB, is a high-end air combat exercise. Designed to simulate peer conflict, aggressor squadrons are used to replicate advanced adversaries. The exercises are designed to stress tactics, expose weaknesses, and train in contested environments.
Kill ratios in Red Flag are not marketing metrics but learning tools to take away new lessons.
U.S. Air Force Maj. Taylor “FEMA” Hiester, F-16 Viper Demonstration Team commander and pilot, performs aerial maneuvers in a U.S. Air Force F-16C Fighting Falcon during an air show at Latrobe, Pennsylvania, June 21, 2025. The F-16, a multi-role fighter aircraft capable of both air-to-air and air-to-ground combat, demonstrates its versatility through dynamic aerial demonstrations at air shows across the globe. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Steven Cardo)
The F-35 on Paper
The stealth fighter integrates AESA radar, Distributed Aperture System (DAS), electro-optical targeting, and off-board data links to provide unmatched situational awareness, one of the greatest advantages of the airframe. Another cutting-edge advantage: stealth.
The F-35 has a low radar cross-section (RCS), reducing the detection window and enabling first-look/first-shot advantages. The F-35 is also networked, acting as a sensor node that can share targeting data and extend awareness across the entire force structure. The result of these advantages: the F-35 often fires first, often engages beyond-visual-range, and avoids merges.
A Polish F-16 pilot awaits instructions from his crew chief after completion of a Baltic Air Policing sortie at Šiauliai Air Base, Lithuania, Aug. 30, 2017. The Polish air force recently relinquished control of the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission to the U.S. Air Force for the forty-fifth rotation of allied protection of the sovereign skies of the Baltic region since Baltic Air Policing operations began in 2004. (U.S. Air Force photo/ Tech. Sgt. Matthew Plew)
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II assigned to the 56th Fighter Wing, Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, performs a strafing run during Haboob Havoc, April 24, 2024, over Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona. Haboob Havoc is a total force exercise that provides a way for pilots from various bases to demonstrate their skills across a diverse range of aircraft, including F-35 Lightning IIs, F-16 Fighting Falcons, and A-10 Thunderbolt IIs, while also testing their abilities in different mission sets such as dogfighting and gun runs. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Mason Hargrove)
20:1 Kill Ratio
The F-35’s Red Flag 2017 kill ratio of 20:1 reflects dominance in BVR engagement, information superiority, and integrated air battle.
Aggressors were frequently killed before they even knew they were targets—that’s the F-35’s stealth, sensors, and tactics working as designed, exactly the missions the F-35 was built for.
Swarm Tactics
Yet the F-35 seemed to have a vulnerability. Aggressor F-16s reportedly used numerical superiority, multi-axis attacks, and saturation geometry. Basically, the F-16s swarmed the F-35. This forced the F-35 to expend missiles, compress the engagement distance, and create merges—resulting in an overwhelming defensive scenario.
This exposed the F-35’s key limitation: limited internal weapons payload. When operating in stealth configuration, the F-35 typically only carries four AMRAAMS. Once these four missiles are expended, the F-35 must disengage—or merge for a WVR engagement.
Three U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons assigned to the 31st Fighter Wing at Aviano Air Base fly in formation during Exercise Combined Strike 25 along the coast of Italy, August 18, 2025. Integration flying training is key to enhancing interoperability with NATO partners and increasing our readiness capabilities. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Zachary Jakel)
Stealth offers advantages, of course, but one of the drawbacks is internal carriage requirements, which reduce payload. Finite BVR shots per sortie are a problem against large formations. The F-16s identified and exploited this limitation.
WVR Realities
In close-range engagements, stealth advantage diminishes, and infrared missiles dominate. The stealth fighter was not built to dominate; it’s not even that maneuverable. Instead, the F-35 was designed to avoid merges.
But the F-16 pilots, understanding this asymmetry and relying on their advanced dogfighting skill set, forced the merge—at which point pilot proficiency and geometry mattered more than stealth, networking, or sensor fusion.
F-35 Stealth Fighter in Red. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.
Historical Precedent
Air combat history has repeatedly shown that quality can dominate, yes, but quantity still has influence. In World War II, Korea, and Vietnam, swarm tactics and mass formations were used with success.
The modern parallel is clear; in Ukraine, Russian drone/missile swarms are being used to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems; in the Middle East, Houthi rebels are using drone swarms to complicate US aircraft carrier operations.
The Red Flag 2017 incident applies these tactics to air combat, forcing the fifth-generation fighter to adapt to a mass threat environment.
Strategic Implications
The stealth fighter excels in sensor-driven warfare and coalition integration. But saturation tactics stress any system. The F-35 rarely fights alone operationally; it is supported with AWACS, tankers, EW, and other fighters. In real combat, the F-35’s magazine depth would be augmented through support systems.
An F-35 Lightning II taxis on the runway during the “Maple Thunder” exercise, at North Auxiliary Airfield, Joint Base Charleston, North, South Carolina, January 30, 2024. Airman with the 158th FW are participating in Maple Thunder to implement the Agile Combat Employment concept. (U.S. Air Force photo by Dr. Sandeep Mulgund)
Yet, the single platform’s limited magazine depth is a point of concern. That’s partially why the loyal wingman drone concept is being pursued so aggressively; the
Still, the 2017 incident does not invalidate the F-35’s doctrine, and certainly does not prove the F-16 is superior. The incident exposes a weakness in an aircraft that is generally well-suited for modern warfare.
And the 20:1 kill ratio still shows F-35 dominance; the swarm tactics prove, however, that no platform is immune to saturation.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is an attorney and journalist covering national security, technology, and politics. Previously, he was a political staffer and candidate, and a US Air Force pilot selectee. He holds a JD from the University of Oregon and a master’s in global journalism and international relations from NYU.
