Key Points and Summary – Drones are reshaping warfare—from FPV quadcopters slamming armor to carrier-based tankers like MQ-25—but can they replace manned fighters and bombers?
-Proponents point to lower cost, zero pilot risk, and specialization at scale.
U.S. Air Force Drones. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-The countercase: today’s autonomy still struggles with rapid OODA loops, electronic warfare, and complex, ambiguous kill chains.
-Politics matter, too—pilots, services, and Congress won’t retire cockpits overnight. The near-term reality is teaming: Collaborative Combat Aircraft (loyal wingmen) that extend range, sensors, jamming, and magazine depth for manned jets.
-Expect fewer pilots, not none. Until autonomy, resilience, and trust leap forward, humans remain central—and drones are the multiplier.
Can Drones Replace Manned Fighter Jets and Bombers?
You don’t have to be an expert in military affairs to know that many types of drones have transformed 21st-century warfare. We are transitioning to the age when nearly all soldiers on the ground will have their own first-person view drone that can swoop down and destroy tanks and armored personnel carriers and eliminate enemy combatants. But can large, unmanned craft take the place of manned fighter jets and bombers in the future?
There Are Some Calling for Full Drone Replacement
Inventor and entrepreneur extraordinaire Elon Musk thinks so. He is on the record saying that buying more F-35s is a fool’s errand and that drones should replace these stealth fighters. Even aerial refueling has changed. The US Navy has an unmanned tanker called the MQ-25 Stingray that can take off from carriers, refill airplanes with fuel, and then collect intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance data.
Taking Humans Out of the Mission
With drones, you don’t have to worry about human casualties. Combat search and rescue for live pilots would not be needed. There would be no requirement for SERE school, where aviators learn about “Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape” if they get shot down.
Drones would be less expensive, and more could be made, unabated by legislators and policymakers who worry about the costs of manned airplanes. There would still need to be aircraft designers and engineers who focus on drone development rather than manned aircraft, and there could be a learning curve in this regard.
Moreover, there would be a new calling for innovators who work in military hardware. They would be responsible for unmanned instead of manned flight, and this could change the way we educate and train aerospace engineers. Pilots would switch over to becoming ground remote pilots who fly the unmanned aerial vehicles.
Specialized Mission Set for Drones
Drones could be completely specialized for better economies of scale during manufacturing. There could be different versions for dogfighting, electronic warfare, ground strike, reconnaissance, nuclear weapons delivery, anti-submarine warfare, strategic lift, tactical re-supply, and close air support. Multiple roles could be enhanced as the drone force grows and replaces manned aircraft.
The replacement process begins with the Loyal Wingman drones called Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). These fly with fighter jets and conduct autonomous missions. This is the first step toward eliminating manned aircraft. CCAs will become ubiquitous and change the way we fight. If CCAs can be this successful, there will be calls for them to completely replace manned aircraft.
There are significant expenses associated with training a human pilot. Flight training takes time and numerous hours in the cockpit. Drones would eliminate the need for such a long process. Pilots would need to be trained to operate unmanned aircraft, which should be less time-consuming and more cost-effective. Drone pilots could fly longer and be less fatigued during long missions.
However, there are downsides to the drone revolution. Current unmanned craft are just not technically advanced enough to take over from human pilots. There would have to be huge advances in unmanned technology. This would be a time-consuming and expensive process.
Complete Drone Replacement Would Not Be Popular Politically
Human pilots would push back, and the Air Force, Navy, or Marine Corps may find Congressional champions and even presidents who are in favor of continuing the practice of manned flight. The media would have to be on board, and defense intellectuals may push back in Washington, DC, to convince policymakers to maintain the current approach to manned flight.
Keep the Humans in the Cockpit for Complex Thinking Skills
Human pilots are adept at the Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA) loop, and machines cannot currently replicate this decision-making protocol as well as humans can. There needs to be a live pilot who can quickly and efficiently determine mission roles. Currently, there are no drones that can conduct OODA loops rapidly enough to replace humans. This is a complex and advanced thinking process that would require artificial general intelligence, and this science has not progressed to replace a live pilot. CCAs cannot dogfight on their own without being controlled by a manned aircraft. A human aviator can achieve air superiority more effectively than a drone.
Another downside for drones is that they create a “military internet of things” and databases that can be vulnerable to cyberattacks. Anti-drone jamming defenses will only improve over time, but unmanned flight may become more susceptible to countermeasures designed to defeat drones as time passes.
In all, there are advantages of going “all-drone” and replacing every manned aircraft in the fleet. But this is more of a thought exercise. In reality, drone technology has not evolved enough to conduct every type of mission. But CCAs will be the wave of the future and there may be a need for fewer live pilots. Drones can be a force multiplier, but they won’t replace manned aircraft in the near term.
We will always need live pilots in the air. Unmanned craft will not be able to conduct the OODA loop quickly and efficiently enough. Politically, replacing manned aircraft with drones will not be popular with traditionalists in the military.
Count me as one defense analyst who still believes in the need for human beings to be at the controls of aircraft. I support CCAs and drone tankers though. If these aircraft are successful, I may change my mind on the drone revolution, but it could take decades to complete the full drone revolution.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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