Key Points – Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, with over 3,000 ballistic missiles, approximately 2,000 of which are capable of reaching Israel.
-This arsenal includes a variety of liquid and solid-propellant missiles, such as the Shahab-3, Ghadr, Emad, Khorramshahr, and the maneuverable Kheibar Shekan.
-While Iran has made significant strides, the accuracy of these weapons is questionable.
-Analysis of the 2024 strike on Israel’s Nevatim Air Base suggests the Emad missile had a circular error probable of 1.2 kilometers, far less precise than advertised, making it effective for terrorizing cities but less so against hardened military targets.
How Many Missiles Does Iran Have? And Are They Accurate?
Iran has made it a priority to build up its arsenal of ballistic missiles. The Middle Eastern country is believed to have an enormous inventory of missiles in its arsenal.
While some older missiles had relatively poor accuracy, recent analytical reports suggest that Iran has made significant strides in improving the precision of its missiles, with some models now capable of hitting targets with a highly improved degree of accuracy.
So, it wasn’t a surprise when Israel attacked Iran’s missile launch sites. Israel’s air strikes reportedly included hitting targets in Tabriz, which was one of the launch sites of an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel in October 2024.
Israel killed Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, and Hossein Salami, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This is the organization responsible for Iran’s ballistic missile program.
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Arsenal
Iran’s missile arsenal is the largest and most diverse in the Middle East.
Iran is estimated to have over 3,000 ballistic missiles of various types, according to US intelligence. However, some estimates specifically for missiles capable of reaching Israel put the number closer to 2,000.
Following recent conflicts, some Israeli military sources estimate Iran’s remaining ballistic missile count at around 2,000, with Israeli strikes having destroyed some.
Iran has fired between 400 and 500 ballistic missiles at Israel since the most recent hostilities began last week. The number of missiles destroyed on the ground by Israeli air strikes is unknown.
In order to reach Israel from Iran requires, missiles with ranges of more than 1,000 km (621 miles), also known as Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs).
Iran possesses a diverse range of armaments. This includes liquid-propellant missiles developed in collaboration with North Korea, such as the Ghadr and Khorramshahr, as well as advanced solid-propellant ballistic missiles.
Some of Iran’s most prevalent ballistic missiles include:
Shahab-3:
A medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) with a range of around 1,300 km, based on North Korean technology. Iran has continuously improved the Shahab-3 since its deployment in 2003, and it is often unclear which versions of the Shahab-3 are referred to by Iranian officials and Western intelligence reports.
Ghadr:
An MRBM with a range of 1,600 km, considered a variant of the Shahab-3. According to Jane’s Strategic Weapon Systems, the Ghadr has a range of 1,950 km. The length is approximately 15.86 meters, with a launch weight of around 19,000 kilograms. More recent estimates suggest the missile is slightly longer, at 16.6 meters, roughly a meter longer than the Shahab-3.
Emad:
An MRBM with a range of 1,800 km, featuring a maneuverable reentry vehicle, according to Breaking Defense. This is not an entirely new missile but rather a reentry vehicle (RV) designed for placement on top of a Shahab-3 or Ghadr rocket.
The design and alterations to this finned RV give it increased stability, high maneuverability, and, in turn, a higher degree of accuracy. Janes reports that the Emad RV has a greater volume than previous RVs, allowing it to potentially carry heavier payloads.
Khorramshahr:
An MRBM with a range of 2,000-3,000 km, also known as BM-25 or Musudan. Khorramshahr missiles can be equipped with solitary or multiple warheads. They can carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) warheads of up to 1,800 kg.
Kheibar:
It can carry a 1,500 kg warhead with a range of 2,000 km. It is capable of striking 80 targets upon reaching the target area. The warhead detaches at the last stage of flight. It hits its targets with pinpoint accuracy at high speed, hindering enemy air defense systems from detecting, tracking, or effectively engaging the missile to intercept it.
Zolfaghar:
A short-range solid-propellant missile, potentially part of the Fateh-110 family, with a range of 700 km.
The Zolfaghar Iranian Short Range Ballistic Missile is an Iranian road-mobile, single-stage, solid-propelled SRBM named after Zulfiqar, the sword of Ali ibn Abi Talib.
Kheibar Shekan:
A medium-range ballistic missile with a range of 1,400 km and a maneuverable reentry vehicle, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
Its roughly 500 kg warhead is large for its class, and it also features independent maneuvering capabilities. Upon atmospheric reentry, it decelerates and employs its fins to dodge interceptors, complicating defenses like Israel’s David’s Sling and the US Patriot system.
Fattah:
An Iranian hypersonic missile, potentially a variant of the Kheibar Shekan, capable of hypersonic speeds and maneuvering within the atmosphere.
In both April and October’s strikes in 2024, analysts identified wreckage that appeared to be from a Fatah-1 missile. Neither of these strikes was remarkably effective and was likely more of a show of force by Iran than a legitimate military strike. However, the Iranian strike against the oil refinery in Haifa was reportedly by a Fattah missile.
Accuracy of Iran’s Missiles
Analysts examined the Iranian strike on the Nevatim Air Base, some 65 kilometers south of Jerusalem in the Negev Desert. They believe Iran used its Emad missile, a variant of the country’s Shahab-3 missile.
Iran targeted Israeli F-35I fighter jet hangars at the airbase: the analysts measured the distance between the hangars and the impact zones of the missiles. That gave an average of about 1.2 kilometers for the “circular error probable” — a measurement used by experts to determine a weapon’s accuracy based on the radius of a circle that encompasses 50 percent of where the missiles landed.
That’s far worse than a 500-meter error circle first estimated by experts for the Emad. Iran separately advertised the Emad to potential international buyers as having a 50-meter circle. But that shouldn’t be a surprise. Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China frequently exaggerate their weapons’ effectiveness.
However, when targeting civilian population centers, as Iran has been doing, they don’t have to be terribly accurate. However, targeting aircraft hangars or ships at sea may be problematic.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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