During the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, Donald J. Trump asserted that, if re-elected, he could end the Russia-Ukraine War, which had been raging since 2022, in the first 24 hours of his second presidency.
Alas, two years and nine months after returning to the Oval Office, President Trump still hasn’t achieved that lofty and laudable goal.
President Donald Trump receives the news he’ll be awarded the Israel Prize from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Monday, December 29, 2025, at the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
President Donald Trump delivers remarks alongside Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and CMMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz during a Rural Health Transformation Event in the East Room of the White House, Friday, January 16, 2026. (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)
But now, Mr. Trump is seeing a new hope for a Ukraine peace deal thanks to upcoming talks in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
So then, is this just more political bluster and premature hope on the President’s part, or is there more substance to it this time around?
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
As reported by Elsa Ohlen Tan and Matthew Tan of CNBC, those peace talks are set to begin on Tuesday, 10 November 2026, which is also the same day that these words are being typed.
Representatives from Kyiv and Moscow alike are being sent to the Emirati capital, thus signifying the first peace talks between the two warring factions since a meeting in Geneva back in February.
In President Trump’s own words, “We’re also seeing a very strong inclination to end Russia and Ukraine [war]. We’re involved in that because I want to see people stop getting killed again.” Those optimistic comments come on the heels of an unnamed U.S. official’s assessment that Moscow and Kyiv were privately showing some flexibility over a possible exchange of territory, according to Reuters.
Deeper Dive
However, that optimistic assessment must be tempered and taken with a grain of salt, for two reasons:
-First of all, an unnamed “senior Ukrainian official” rejected suggestions that his government was considering territorial concessions, telling Reuters that any discussion of territory would have to take place between national leaders and be accompanied by appropriate security guarantees.
-Second of all, for its part, Russia has publicly maintained its demand that Ukraine surrender the entire eastern Donbas region, including territory that Putin’s forces haven’t even captured.
Moreover, William Courtney, former U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia and adjunct senior fellow and professor of policy analysis at RAND, also takes a less optimistic tone, telling CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Tuesday that there are “no signs thus far” that the Kremlin is showing any willingness to negotiate seriously towards a ceasefire milestone, which he considers a logical “first step.” Professor Courtney raised two key points:
-Ukraine’s proposal for a ceasefire along the current battle line would have accepted Russia’s de facto control of occupied territory without formally recognizing it; Courtney thought it “puzzling” that Trump stopped backing the proposal after Putin objected at their Alaska summit in August 2025
-Russia has continued to launch missile and drone attacks and efforts to destroy bridges over the Dnieper River, thus showing that Moscow’s aims toward Ukraine had not changed; substantive talks would be unlikely without a shift in Russia’s battlefield objectives
“It looks like because Russia has objected to a ceasefire proposal that Ukraine and the U.S. earlier last year made, that the Trump administration is no longer trying to achieve a ceasefire, even though that’s logically the first step,” Courtney added.
In any event, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are set to lead the Trump Administration’s mediation efforts, whilst Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky will serve as Moscow’s chief negotiator.
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Mario Rubio told reporters during a press briefing at Homestead AFB in Florida this past Sunday that discussions had advanced on a possible postwar security framework for Ukraine and Europe, hastening to add that “Nothing’s been finalized yet, and maybe some progress can be made in Abu Dhabi.”
U.S.-UAE Relations: the X Factor?
The UAE has long been a key trading partner and military ally of the United States.
Among other things, the Emiratis were among the members of the multinational coalition that drove then-Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, aka Operation Desert Storm.
Fast-forward a decade to America’s Global War on Terror (GWOT), and the UAE was the only Arab country to commit military troops for humanitarian aid missions in the U.S.-led war effort in Afghanistan; indeed, former U.S. Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) James Mattis affectionately nicknamed the UAE military “Little Sparta” for its effectiveness in the GWOT, proverbial punching above its weight relative to the small size of its active personnel component.
Moreover, in the 9/11 Commission Report, Richard A. Clarke, then U.S. National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection and Counterterrorism, praised the UAE as “America’s best counterterrorism ally in the Gulf.”
Sidebar Note: As a personal testimonial to the solid military ties between America and the UAE, this writer worked as a private military contractor in the latter country from 2011 to 2012, serving in Abu Dhabi’s equivalent of the Junior ROTC program.
Given that history, the UAE government, with H. H. Sheik Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan as the current head of state, has a strong incentive to facilitate the current round of peace talks and help the U.S. attain a long-coveted foreign policy goal.
About the Author: Christian D. Orr
Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (with a concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He is also the author of the book “Five Decades of a Fabulous Firearm: Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Beretta 92 Pistol Series,” the second edition of which was recently published.
