With midterm elections rapidly approaching in the United States, Iran is hoping to delay any peace talks in an effort to inflict as much political damage on Trump as possible.
The war against Iran has caused much political strife in the U.S., as gas prices have increased and the global oil market has been thrown into chaos.
B-52 Bomber Bombs. Image Credit: National Security Journal.
A U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress, assigned to the 2nd Bomb Wing, receives fuel from a KC-135 Stratotanker, assigned to the 340th Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron, during a multi-day Bomber Task Force mission over Southwest Asia, Dec. 10, 2020. The B-52 is a long range bomber with a range of approximately 8,800 miles, enabling rapid support of Bomber Task Force missions or deployments and reinforcing global security and stability.(U.S Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Joey Swafford)
Although the military has dealt significant damage to the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities, Iran is not showing any signs of capitulation as the regime fights to remain in power.
To the President’s frustration, Tehran is stalling peace talks as the GOP enters a tense election season to retain control over the Senate and House of Representatives.
Iran Playing the Long Game: Tehran Has a New Strategy
According to Reuters, Iran is bracing for renewed attacks from the U.S. as the conflict enters its eighth consecutive month.
Three Iranian officials, speaking anonymously, told the outlet that Tehran was expecting new attacks from Trump to break the current stalemate. “Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and U.S. attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war,” one official said. “The clerical establishment is not to give Trump a political victory.” By keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, Iran hopes to keep fuel prices high and further capitalize on the war’s immense unpopularity at home.
If Trump and the Republicans lose the midterms, the President’s ability to wage the war will be significantly hampered by Democrat resistance.
The war with Iran was arguably one of Trump’s riskiest moves of his entire presidency and has tanked his popularity.
Shortly after the war began, Iran announced that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which a sizable portion of the world’s oil flows.
Over the course of the war, Iran and its Houthi proxies in Yemen have attacked oil infrastructure across the Middle East, which threw the energy market into a rut that it has yet to recover from.
Between the closure of Hormuz and the attacks against fuel infrastructure, oil prices worldwide have skyrocketed.
As a result, gasoline and diesel prices in the U.S. have also skyrocketed. According to AAA, gas prices average about $4.26 per gallon nationwide, while diesel sits at $6.31 per gallon.
Negotiations Going Nowhere
Facing pressure from Israel, the U.S. remains adamant about dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, which the Islamic Republic claims is purely for civilian activities.
However, Tehran maintains that Washington must adhere to its seven-day plan before talks about its nuclear program can begin.
Under this seven-day plan, the U.S. and its regional allies would be forced to cease hostilities on all fronts and lift any sanctions against Iran.
This plan was previously rejected by the U.S., but Iran maintains that these conditions must be met for Iran to lift its blockade over the Strait.
Qatari mediators delivered the proposal to the U.S. According to Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, the offer remains on the table, and intermediaries are still exchanging messages.
Earlier this month, Trump promised that the U.S. would not launch any further strikes against Iran until after the midterm elections in November.
The U.S. is also playing the long game, as the blockade has prevented Iran from exporting large quantities of oil.
After constant attacks against military and civilian infrastructure, Tehran’s economy is in shambles as its currency, the rial, collapses and inflation is at all-time highs.
Both sides want to wait out the other side, but with midterms in the U.S. and economic problems in Iran, Washington and Tehran also need the war to end quickly to rebuild and recover from the fighting.
Mutual Distrust
Unfortunately, neither side trusts the other to withhold their end of any deal. Iran is immensely paranoid of Trump and Israel, fearing that both want to see a regime change in Tehran. “The fundamental issue is that Tehran believes that Trump is interested in regime change… and following Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s policy of seeking to bring down Iran’s ruling establishment,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
At the same time, the U.S. is also incredibly distrustful of the government in Tehran, which it maintains is an oppressive and dictatorial regime.
Even if Trump loses the midterms, Tehran is unlikely to resume normal relations with Washington.
According to Tehran analyst Saeed Leylaz, the regime believes the U.S. has broken every commitment it agreed to, even as Iran has honored its end of the agreement.
Whether this sentiment is accurate is debatable, but it means Tehran has no confidence that Washington will uphold its end in any future deal or peace plan. “Reaching a sustainable deal with the US, even after the Trump administration, is no longer possible because of the deepened distrust,” Leylez told Reuters. “Nothing will go back to the status quo.” As a result, Trump has few options.
The U.S. can withdraw while claiming victory, or resume military attacks until Tehran accepts unconditional surrender. Both options risk destroying Trump and the GOP politically.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
