In an effort to drag out the ongoing war with the United States, interlocutors for Iran are reportedly prolonging negotiations with Washington.
Compounding the elusiveness of a deal is believed to be a lack of trust between the two sides — and the belief in Tehran that the United States may launch fresh strikes against the Islamist regime irrespective of how negotiations unfold.
A U.S. F-35A Lightning II departs after conducting aerial refueling with a KC-10 Extender from the 908th Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron, June 11, 2019 at an undisclosed location. The fifth generation fighter provides the pilot with comprehensive situational awareness in a sphere around the aircraft for missile and aircraft warnings, day and night vision, extended range detection and precision targeting against air and ground threats, granting the U.S. Air Force and its allies’ air superiority. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Keifer Bowes)
An F-35A Lightning II assigned to the 62nd Fighter Squadron prepares to takeoff, Dec. 15, 2020, at Luke Air Force Base, Arizona. The 62nd FS transitioned from flying F-16 Fighting Falcons to flying F-35 aircraft in 2015. There are four F-35 fighter squadrons and four F-16 fighter squadrons that directly support the base’s mission of training the world’s greatest fighter pilots. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Brooke Moeder)
Both Iran and the United States have wrestled each other into a kind of stalemate since the war erupted in late February when the United States and Israel jointly launched Operation Epic Fury and the decapitation strikes that killed most of Iran’s leadership, including the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Speaking to The Times of Israel, an online newspaper, one Iranian official was unequivocal. “Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war,” one of the officials said. “The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory.”
Elections in Israel and America
The American president has publicly eschewed fresh strikes against Iran ahead of the looming November 3rd midterm elections, and renewed fighting would likely send jitters through global energy markets and risk spiking already elevated energy prices.
Though the price of Brent Crude, a global oil benchmark, is not quite as high as it was this spring, prices remain significantly elevated compared to their pre-war levels, costs that ultimately get passed on to purchasers at the pump.
Israel has largely stayed out of the fight since this spring, but seems willing to jump back in.
Like the United States, the country has its own elections coming up, with a nationwide vote scheduled for next week.
But regardless of who wins those elections, the country is unlikely to change the course of its Iran policy — and could, in fact, harden its stance toward its arch-rival in the region.
If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners win at the ballot box, the prime minister could feel emboldened to rejoin the fray with their American partners.
Ultimately, the results of the election are unlikely to change the direction of Israel’s multiple simmering conflicts — against Hamas, Hezbollah, or Iran — but could determine how strenuously those battles are fought.
The Iranian Angle
Despite the assassination of much of Iran’s political and military leadership and the outset of the war, the country has not collapsed, nor has the regime lost its hold on the country.
The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the deceased former Supreme Leader, is believed to be somewhere in the country.
And while notionally the leader of Iran, he is believed to have been severely injured during the operation that killed his father.
It is unclear whether he is physically or mentally capable of leading the country.
But beyond an unclear leadership structure—Vice President JD Vance has said Washington is not always certain who calls the shots in Iran—the embattled country faces other crises.
Inflation in Iran hovers near ninety percent.
The country’s oil exports are believed to be at or near zero because the United States Navy has blockaded its ports.
Not so, however, for Iran’s regional adversaries.
Thanks to the East-West Pipeline, a Saudi energy conduit that unloads at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, the Kingdom has kept oil flowing out of the country, albeit at reduced levels and despite repeated attacks by Iran and the Houthis, its rebel beneficiaries in Yemen vying for control of the country.
The United States Navy has kept the Strait of Hormuz, that narrow maritime bottleneck that, before the war, saw a fifth of the world’s oil and gas pass through it, open.
Even though Iran has fired upon multiple ships making the run through that passage, hitting several vessels, some of which sank, flows outward to international markets are still moving strongly forward.
According to Kpler, a data and trade intelligence provider, oil flows from the Middle East are higher than before the war, largely thanks to an ersatz oil shipment system that depends heavily on protection from the United States as an alternative.
When tallying oil transiting the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz and other conduits, like the East-West Pipeline, flows are believed to exceed 24 million barrels per day, up from the prewar 23.3 million barrels per day.
The conclusion?
While Iran can make shipping oil from the Middle East dangerous and costly for maritime insurers, shipping operators, and consumers worldwide, it seems unable to prevent oil from reaching the outside world and removes significant leverage from Tehran’s hand.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on shifting battle lines in Donbas and the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
