‘No-Fly Zone’ for Ukraine: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?

Key Points and Summary – A Russian drone barrage aimed at Ukraine spilled into Poland, where Dutch F-35s intercepted several—reportedly the first time NATO fighters have engaged enemy targets in allied airspace.

-Warsaw invoked Article 4, with Poland and Germany calling the incursion deliberate; WELT said five drones headed toward a NATO base before interception.

-NATO pledged support as Romania scrambled F-16s for a separate drone sighting. Zelenskyy labeled the episodes an “expansion of the war” and urged more sanctions.

-Trump’s initial response was muted, later tying tougher U.S. sanctions to Europe, ending Russian oil purchases.

-Poland’s foreign minister floated a limited, NATO/EU-run no-fly buffer for drones nearing alliance airspace.

Time for No-Fly Zone? Ukraine Update

A line was crossed in the Russia-Ukraine war last week, when over a dozen Russian drones, part of a barrage aimed at Ukraine, crossed into the airspace of Poland, a member of NATO.

After Dutch F-35s were scrambled and engaged with the drones, it became the first time in NATO’s 75-year history that “alliance fighters had engaged enemy targets in allied airspace,” the New York Times reported.

Poland went on to invoke NATO’s Article 4, which was the first time that had happened since several countries did so around the time of Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

WELT reported more: That “five drones were on a direct flight path toward a NATO base” before the F-35s intercepted them.

In the days afterward, NATO pledged to defend Poland.  German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius went on to say that the drones were deliberately sent towards Poland, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared on X last week that the launch was intentional.

“We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it,” Tusk said on the social network.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski added, “No, that wasn’t a mistake,” on X, per Politico. Politico added that the attack was “one of the most serious violations ever of a NATO country’s sovereignty and was perceived in Europe as a military and political test from Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

Also, this week, Romania scrambled its own fighter jets,  a pair of F-16s, after its own report of a drone incursion. The jets “detected a drone in national airspace” and tracked it until “it disappeared from the radar,” the Romanian defense ministry said.

Zelenskyy, in a statement, called the recent incidents “an obvious expansion of the war by Russia,” and went on to call for additional sanctions.

The View From Trump

Trump’s initial reaction to the Poland incident, meanwhile, was muted.

“What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!” Trump said on Truth Social the day after the drones were shot down. A few days later, Trump sent a “letter to NATO nations,” threatening further sanctions on Russia, but only if members of NATO promise to “STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA.” He went on to dismiss the war, launched by Russia in 2022, as “Biden’s and Zelenskyy’s WAR.”

A No-Fly Zone?

Now, nearly a week after the drones fell in Poland, another idea has been proposed: A no-fly zone over Ukraine.

According to CNN, the Polish foreign minister has proposed just that. Radoslaw Sikorski floated the idea in an interview with the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine, proposing that NATO and the European Union both administer the no-fly zone.

“We as NATO and the EU could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies,” Sikorski told the newspaper. He added that doing so would help protect other NATO nations from debris, especially now that the Russian drone attacks have begun to spill over into other countries.

The proposal, per Politico, appears to only apply to drones aimed at Ukraine that approach the airspace of NATO nations. Poland, with its large border with Ukraine, would appear to be the country most affected.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO or the EU, and a big objective of Putin’s invasion was to prevent it from joining either body.

A no-fly zone over Ukraine was proposed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the opening weeks of the war and was considered by NATO.

However, NATO ultimately rejected the idea, “for fear that direct confrontation with Russian combat planes could broaden the war.” Then-UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace had worried that such a move would “likely trigger a Europe-wide conflict with a nuclear-armed power.”

It’s not clear if NATO feels any differently now.

About the Author: Stephen Silver

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.

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