Key Points and Summary on Ukraine and Trump – President Trump’s abrupt pivot to aggressively arming Ukraine is not about achieving a total military victory, but rather a calculated strategy to force a recalcitrant Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.
-Frustrated by Putin’s refusal to engage in good-faith peace talks, Trump is now using the threat of advanced, long-range weapons—including potentially encouraging strikes deep inside Russia—as leverage.
-By making European allies pay for and transfer these weapons, Trump is also “Europeanizing” the conflict’s costs and risks. The new strategy aims to exhaust Russia into a stalemate, not necessarily defeat it on the battlefield.
Is Trump Really Shifting on the Ukraine War?
United States President Donald Trump just met the secretary-general of NATO in the White House and pledged substantial new assistance to Ukraine in its war with Russia.
The most important element of the latest aid is greater air defense, because Russia has been pounding Ukraine with its most punishing air strikes of the war.
But most controversially, Trump seems open to Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia, perhaps as far as Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
Now he would attempt to walk it back and say he was not in favor of attacks on Moscow or deeper into Russia. However, the threat remains.
Putin has hinted in the past that Western weapons used for such attacks would bring Russian retaliation against NATO itself.
Both the Trump and the previous Joe Biden administrations have resisted giving Ukraine long-range missiles because of that threat.
To date, Ukrainian attacks far inside Russia have been conducted with Ukraine’s drone weaponry. This may be changing.
Does Trump Now Accept that Putin Insists on Winning?
Trump, in his earlier efforts to end the war, offered Russian President Vladimir Putin generous terms—far better than Ukraine or America’s European allies extended.
There was much anxiety at the time that Trump was abandoning Ukraine. And Trump’s affinity for Putin is well-known.
However, Trump’s extension of terms, generous enough to provoke Western outrage, also served the useful purpose of measuring Putin’s commitment to the war. In offering Putin a limited military victory and re-integration into the world economy, Trump was giving Putin likely the best deal Putin would get from the West. If Putin were to reject this maximally generous deal, that would indicate that he was fully committed to his war goals, that he still believed in and wanted a complete military victory.
That is what Putin did. This rejection is compelling evidence that Putin will not stop until Ukraine is annihilated. Putin is a committed imperialist and, as a neighbor to NATO, a huge threat to the alliance. The only options left in the war, therefore, are to either accept a Russian victory or facilitate Ukrainian defense until Russia is exhausted.
Trump seemed extremely unwilling to accept those options. He believed that he had a personal relationship with Putin, which would lead to Putin’s compromise. He now appears deeply frustrated that his many phone calls with Putin have brought no flexibility.
European Ownership of Ukraine’s Defense
Trump’s pivot to air defense and possible later deep-strike for Ukraine was wisely accompanied by an insistence to the NATO secretary-general that Europe purchase these systems and then transfer them to Ukraine.
It is now widely accepted that Europe needs to do far more for its defense. It is capable of spending far more, and the US needs it to if America is going to confront China.
Deferring the strategic challenge to Europe is essential, too. If a Ukrainian deep strike with NATO weapons leads to Russian retaliation, then Europe needs to debate and handle that on its own. By insisting that Europe buy the weapons, Trump increases European ownership of any costs or blowback. The ultimate goal is for Europe’s defense industrial base to carry most of the military expenses, specifically, platforms and ammunition. Increasing European defense production is a crucial element in assuming greater responsibility for its own security needs.
America will likely still provide the logistical and intelligence support necessary to use these sophisticated weapons for years to come. American C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) capabilities are far ahead of those in Europe, and developing them on a European-wide scale will likely require greater European political integration.
Nevertheless, moving the defense production costs and strategic options burden to the Europeans is a good way to ‘Europeanize’ Ukrainian defense.
Deep Strike is Not a Turning Point
Trump accepting Ukrainian strikes deep into Russia with NATO weaponry will not change the military balance that much. Ukraine supporters have often claimed that a particular weapons system or policy, such as armor, a no-fly zone, or ATACMs, would be a game-changer. Even if that were once true, it is likely no longer the case. Russia has proven that it cannot be openly defeated on the battlefield without massive NATO involvement.
However, a potential deep strike option, coupled with air defense, does facilitate Ukraine’s ability to hold on. And that is more important than its inability to defeat Russia. So long as Ukraine survives, Russia is losing. The war has been massively costly for Russia—diplomatically, economically, and militarily. Even a stalemate worsens Russia’s long-standing decline in comparison to vastly wealthy states like the US or China. We must now wait for Russia to tire.
About the Author: Dr. Robert E. Kelly
Robert E. Kelly is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Pusan National University. You can follow him on X: @Robert_E_Kelly.
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Jim
July 16, 2025 at 10:59 am
Yes, Russia has maximalist demands which amount to capitulation.
Neutrality, removal of the coup plotters & executioners who took power after the bloody, violent overthrow of the democratically elected president, and limited to a constabulary-sized military force.
From 1996 to 2014 Ukraine was neutral as per their founding constitution which was ratified in 1996. The present Ukraine government after the violent coup gradually instituted a police-state well before the imposition of martial law at the time of the invasion.
Kiev isn’t democratic, certainly if you were a Russian-speaker who was alienated by the coup and you were treated as a second-class citizen who had to give up your language & cultural affinities.
From 1996 to 2014 Ukraine had what amounted to a small-sized constabulary, military force. Only after the alienated Russian-speakers in the Eastern oblasts broke off from Ukraine did the government (with Nato help) built up their military beyond civil, internal needs.
Basically, Putin wants to have Ukraine revert to its pre-2014 status before the bloody, violent overthrow of the president by Stepan Bandera hyper-chauvinists.
For America, if we truly do respect democracy, Ukraine should go back to its pre-2014 status in Europe acknowledging any Russian territorial gains during the Special Military Operation.
Ukraine went off the democratic rails upon the 2014 coup. Everything that’s happened since is the fruit of the poisonous tree and should not be recognized by the Community of Nations.
Including the United States of America.
403Forbidden
July 16, 2025 at 11:50 am
Trump is desperate.
On july 4 2025, he ‘suggested’ to zelenskyy the idea of using newly acquired western arms to hit Moscow.
But on Tuesday, he said to reporters he is now advising that Ukraine should avoid targeting the Russian capital.
It’s crystal clear trump is like Tarzan swinging on a wild rope, yo-yoing through the trees. Really in a state of panic.
Thus trump is now truly and really desperate. He knows he’s already walking down the wrong path, but what to do.
People are asking what the hell has happened to the list. The list, or file, currently being kept by Pam Bondi.
After all, it was Elon musk who on 5 June 2025 posted on X that trump’s name ‘was on the list’ shortly after falling out with the president over his mega bucks spending bill.
Trump unlikely to finish his term of office. But at the very least, he can get to witness the dawning of ww3, what else.
NoBonus
July 16, 2025 at 9:25 pm
Without the bloody Western traders the war would have ended long ago. Now Ukraine will be completely destroyed.
Swamplaw Yankee
July 17, 2025 at 4:03 am
The FSB Cell networks collect data in the USA. Extensive and based out of vassal Canada, the reports and analysis of these dark forces quickly keep the Fatherland Dictator’s Cabal more in touch with the USA than the DNI + the alpha bet agencies do keep the MAGA elite + WH.
The inability of the MAGA POTUS to play geopolitics is on full display. The illegality of the orc muscovite elite seizing ancient Ukrainian land is not even spoken about in the White House now! The slow morons can not comprehend that Putin is just another in the long 700 year long line of muscovites thirsting to fill their ancient genetic urge to kill Ukrainians and “Lolita” the Ukrainian Children.
The Need for a Victory for the WEST is not even comprehended, not a cognitive direction, in the MAGA POTUS circle. The MAGA POTUS Cabal has self-abdicated the previous mantle of the Yankee Leadership of the WEST.
The 2014 POTUS Hussein Obama Democratic Cabals free, no-cost gift of ancient Ukrainian soil and families was a unilateral, greenlighting of the betrayal of the WEST’s geopolitical advantage in ownership of the Ukrainian Crimea and its Black/Azov Sea zones. Finally, a marxist betrayer could succeed in letting the orc ruskie butchers break out of the military enforced circle that a strong USA had so long kept the muscovites in.
All the Yankee sweat in the Iran/Iraq, Afghanistan and China theatres was betrayed by a marxist vote catcher who stuck the pigment card down the Yankee gullet.
Since the 2014 POTUS betrayal also greenlighted the Putin – Epstein child sex trade adventure, the sex trade by Putin of Ukrainian Children is a “verboten” topic in USA inner beltway power elites. Epstein named his sex trade jets “Lolita Express” for the reason he got “prime” cuts from the huge numbers of mass abductions Putin’s little green groomers” initiated from day one of Obama’s greenlighting.
Everybody laughs as the MSM tries to mass smother facts such as why the P.M.s of the state of Israel, etc, were such frequent Flyers. Even Melania appears in a “Trump” role. Is this Yankee elite moral turpitude from Shakespeare?
In a few days, the Han CCP Zi soldier/hardware donation/contribution to the seizure of Ukrainian soil and children will lead to the downfall of Ukraine’s Pokrovsk and the battle for the ancient capital of Kiev.
As the HAN CCP assists its vassal friend Putin in stealing the geopolitical advantage to the WEST of Ukrainian land ownership, the HAN CCP Zi run triads will freeze the USA MSM from even raising the issue of the control the Han CCP spy networks out of Canada have on the US inner beltway.
One can easily see the WEST is betrayed by the 3T scam of GNP for defense. 3T is the Third Trudeau. Canada is a front for the 3T Cabal that are in for 5 years and will outlast the very numbered days the MAGA and Trump era. Leader 3T used the old “Enron” scam on Trump and was greenlighted to a “GO” signal. Leader 3T promised to move his defence spending to 2% the very same day after the MAGA lose power. In the meantime, some playing with the current Canadian budget figures gets the NPR up there, called CBC, playing the Yankee MSM for idiots as if Canada is supporting NATO at the 5% GNP level.
The EU watched this scam theatre, and is using the same scam on NATO. Since Putin is murdering only Ukrainians, Ukraine is so far from western EU, such as Spain, etc., that all Spaniards can snore in the longest siesta in history. This coward yellow belly psychology is noticed so well by the orc muscovite elite who have a POTUS Trump gift of a 50 day killing window of death for Ukrainian Fathers. These are Fathers fighting to the death to release their kids from Putin’s Pedophile slave trade re-started in 2014 by POTUS Obama. A Jeffrey Epstein franchise, with whom both Trump and Obam “rubbed” shoulders.. -30-