Ukraine Fires 1,200 Drones At Russia As Peace Talks Put Europe’s Security On The Table – Ukraine just sent Moscow a message, and it took nearly 1,200 drones to deliver it.
Overnight Thursday into Friday, Kyiv launched one of its largest aerial attacks since Russia’s full-scale invasion began nearly five years ago, the Associated Press reported.
Russian Su-27 Flanker from USAF Museum. Image Credit: National Security Journal.
Su-27 Flanker Up Close. Image Credit: National Security Journal Taken on July 19, 2025.
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed its air defenses shot down 1,198 long-range drones. As with anything from Moscow, take that number with a grain of salt, since the Russians always claim to have downed nearly everything.
However, even the Kremlin’s own math tells you the scale of what Ukraine put in the air.
The timing was no accident. The barrage landed just as U.S.-led peace talks widened to take in the security arrangements that have governed Europe since the end of the Cold War. That should have every NATO capital paying attention.
The Drone Barrage Was Sending A Message
Russian officials said the drones were intercepted over 19 regions, occupied Crimea, and the Black Sea, according to the Kyiv Post. Not all of them were stopped.
The AP, citing local officials, reported that strikes in three Russian regions killed seven people, including a 12-year-old, and wounded 17 more.
The biggest hit came in Volgograd, where the Lukoil refinery was left burning. The regional governor said four workers in the industrial zone were killed.
That plant processes about 14 million metric tons of crude a year, roughly 5 percent of Russia’s refining capacity. The refinery feeds gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel to southern Russia and the Black Sea Fleet. It has now been hit at least nine times since February 2022.
Nine times. At one refinery. It speaks to Russia’s efforts to repair the facility and Ukraine’s efforts to put it out of action.
The Refineries Are The Real Target
So why throw 1,200 drones at a country with the air defenses Russia has? Because the math favors Ukraine. A long-range drone costs a fraction of the missile needed to kill it, and it only takes a handful to get through and knock a distillation unit offline.
Russia uses the same tactic against Ukrainian targets. Drone swarms can overwhelm defenses at any given target.
Kyiv has struck nine of Russia’s 35 major refineries in roughly two weeks, the Kyiv Post reported.
Moscow Warehouse Fire X Screenshot
Citing Reuters industry sources, the outlet said national refining throughput has fallen about 30 percent since late October, from around 700,000 metric tons a day to about 500,000.
Gasoline shortages have been reported in at least eight regions. In Moscow, Rosneft stations are capping purchases at 50 liters per vehicle.
Rationing gas in the capital of a petro-state is a serious situation, not a gimmick. That’s a strategic effect, and it is doing more to pressure the Kremlin than anything happening at a conference table.
The Talks Just Got Bigger
Meanwhile, the diplomacy is moving. Where it’s moving is the question. After two days of talks in Abu Dhabi with Russian and Ukrainian delegations, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner briefed Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Dublin, where the Ukrainian president was meeting with European Union leaders.
Kushner said Russia has agreed to bring Europe into the next round, which would let negotiators take up postwar European security arrangements alongside the territorial fight between Kyiv and Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia is open to contact with the Europeans, once it understands their intentions.
On paper, that sounds like progress. Moscow spent years insisting the Europeans were part of the problem. However, the Kremlin suddenly wants them in the room for a reason.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has noted that Russia’s negotiating position still includes its December 2021 demand that NATO roll back to its 1997 borders. Washington, for its part, has floated permanent security consultations, crisis communications, and greater military transparency as goals for a long-term European framework.
However, Putin reads the situation differently than Brussels does.
Europe Smells A Trap
The Europeans aren’t buying it. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Friday that Europe must insist on a ceasefire before the talks go any further—the opposite of what Putin wants. Entertaining Moscow’s demands on security architecture, she warned in Dublin, means walking into “the traps that Russia is setting.”
Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden was blunter, saying neither Washington nor Moscow should be deciding Europe’s future. European leaders have been scrambling to find an envoy for the talks, wary of Russian maneuvering and of the Trump administration’s sharp criticism of the continent.
ISW assessed late Thursday that Moscow aims to dismantle NATO and the post-Cold War security order. That has always been Putin’s aim. Putin couldn’t break the alliance on the battlefield. Now he gets a shot at doing it with a pen.
Kyiv Is Negotiating With Drones
Russia answered with 117 drones of its own overnight, killing at least two people, including a 17-year-old. A separate strike on Zaporizhzhia on Friday injured 13, five of them children. With its army largely bogged down along a 750-mile front, Moscow keeps going after civilians.
Kyiv knows the side seen as losing gets handed the terms, and Moscow has been telling anyone who will listen that a Russian victory is inevitable.
As the ISW stated in its assessment, Putin is simultaneously doubling down in his efforts to convince US officials to accept Russia’s “fictitious frontline.” Twelve hundred drones in one night says otherwise.
But the leverage at the table gets earned somewhere else. Ukraine is earning it over Volgograd, Ryazan, and Saratov, one refinery at a time.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
