Key Points and Summary – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans to “expand the geography” of long-range strikes, vowing Russia’s oil industry will “pay even more” for the war.
-This escalation is supported by the mass production of a new domestic “Flamingo” cruise missile, which reportedly has a 3,000-km range and a half-ton warhead.
T-84 Tank Ukraine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-The strategy, aided by U.S. intelligence, has already degraded up to 38% of Russia’s refining capacity, causing fuel shortages in 57 regions and forcing the “petrostate” to import fuel from China and Belarus.
Ukraine Declares an Oil War on Russia
WARSAW, POLAND – On 28 October, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Ukraine has plans to expand its long-range strike capabilities. The suggested but not directly stated threat is that future attacks by Ukraine will be targeted even deeper inside Russian territory. Moscow’s oil industry will “pay even more”, said the Ukrainian leader, for providing the revenue stream that funds Moscow’s war on his country.
“We set tasks to expand the geography for the use of our long-range capabilities,” Zelensky wrote Monday on his X account immediately following a high-level staff meeting on the country’s military planning and defense production.
The Ukrainian president said this meeting had reviewed results from recent long-range strikes and coordinated future operations. “Russian oil refining is already paying a tangible price for the war – and will pay even more,” he said.
According to recent statements by officials in Kyiv, new cruise missiles designed in Ukraine will soon be in mass production.
By mid-2026, Ukraine will have manufactured a stockpile of weapons that can reach any target that is within 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles) inside of Russia.
Those missiles will be fitted with a half-ton conventional explosive warhead.
The replacement missile for the nuclear-capable Kh-55 cruise missiles that were given back to Russia by Ukraine in the 1990s is called the Flamingo missile.
New Strike Capability
The Flamingo is 6 meters (approximately 20 feet) long, 1 meter in diameter (3 feet), and is powered with a jet engine that can deliver a 430-550 kilograms (948-1,213 pounds) high explosive to a target at close to speeds of Mach 1.
The missile guides itself to target using GPS and internal navigation aids and should have a Circular Error Probable (CEP) of 15 meters (49 feet) or less.
This is not as accurate as most western GPS-guided weapons, but if it is being fired at a refinery that has large tracts of territory with storage tanks of flammable products “this level of precision will suffice,” said the deputy director of one Ukrainian firm involved in the missile’s design
Su-34 Fullback. Creator: Vitaly V. Kuzmin. Credit: Vitaly V. Kuzmin
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Ukraine has targeted and hit Russian energy production facilities in recent months by using long-range drones to attack oil refineries and depots hundreds of kilometers from the border with Russia. The overall strategy, say officials in Kyiv, is to choke off as much as possible Russia’s capacity to use oil exports to finance and sustain their invasion of the country.
Zelensky said the government is working closely with domestic weapons producers under long-term contracts. The advantage of multi-year contracts that guarantee purchases over a long period is that it permits the Kyiv military to build up supplies of munitions so that they will have enough missiles on hand in the event of a “surge” operation to ramp up attacks when needed.
It also allows the industrial companies that produce these weapons to sustain their supply chains and have an adequate supply of components on hand. “There will be more such contracts,” Zelenskiy said.
Air Defense Deficiencies And More Accurate Attacks
Russia has been concentrating its attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid as Moscow is attempting to limit – if not eliminate – the ability of Ukraine’s cities to supply adequate heat to residential areas as winter approaches.
Zelenskiy referenced these attacks as well in his statement about increasing Ukraine’s cruise missile and noted the country’s need to strengthen air defenses. “We must secure specific air defense supplies from our partners – they have the necessary systems,” he said.
In a later post, Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s strategy for these deep strikes against Russian oil facilities is intended to create a synergistic impact on Moscow’s economy when combined with international sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector.
“All deep-strike goals must be fully locked in by year’s end, including expansion of our long-range footprint,” he wrote.
Ukraine has increased these attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure beginning in August. These successful strikes on refineries and pipelines have destroyed or degraded nearly one-third of Russia’s refining capacity, according to estimates made by Bloomberg business analysts.
The ability of Ukraine to conduct these attacks has been aided by the decision of US President Donald Trump’s administration to share intelligence-based targeting data to aid Kyiv in taking out Russian oil sites.
Intelligence officials have been quoted anonymously to say that the data being provided to Ukraine now exceeds the assistance in targeting these Russian facilities that Ukraine received under the Biden Administration.
Washington’s objective is to disable Russia’s oil production to a level where the resulting reduction of revenue will force Moscow into negotiations to end the war. As of early October, Ukraine strikes had shut down about 38% of Moscow’s oil refineries, creating fuel shortages and forcing authorities in several regions of Russia to impose gasoline and diesel sales.
This has produced gasoline shortages in 57 regions, with the Russian “petrostate” not only halting exports but also, in desperation, having to import petroleum products from Belarus, China, and other Asian suppliers.
Fuel prices in Russia have also risen markedly. The state statistics agency, Rosstat, recorded a 2.58 per cent increase in September, which is the sharpest monthly rise since 2018, and a 12.73 per cent annual growth rate, the highest in 14 years.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of the Asia Research Centre at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
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Swamplaw Yankee
October 28, 2025 at 6:51 pm
The recent clear signal is that the PRC CCP wishes to be “friends” and/or cuddle with Ukraine. The overt signs of military hostility that mostly remain hidden, seem hidden for a purpose. Well, the peer readers can make a guess at my carnival site.
The PRC CCP had its 4 year huddle with the Zi Cabal. Well, what do the peer readers deduct from that Cabal cuddle?
The pro-Ukraine analysts may have gained. These minds see that the Ukrainian genius state is somewhat alone and needs to be friended.
If the PRC has already received the ruuzzkie FAR East lands then a big obstacle vanishes. The PRC has the land, and also has the option to “befriend” Ukraine.
Ukraine has taken my very old advice to move to a 1X, 2X, or 3X state. That is, Ukraine has the hardware reserve on hand to fire an attack missile/drone/shell a minute, every hour, 24/7 for a month =1X. 2X is that Ukraine has the hardware reserve to fire an attack missile/drone/shell every 15 seconds of every minute, every hour, 24/7 for a month. 3X is 10 seconds. And so on.
With a long border, one can determine that this concept requires some forethought and vigorous budgeting.
Oil is actually not the most prime concept. Industrial capacity seems higher. The question is what is the PRC CCP Xi regime Industrial capacity quota for 2026? Does the USA know? If not, why not exactly? Can the CCP supply their vassal Putin at 1X or 2X or 3X? If not, why not? the reality is that the PRC CCP has other vassals with their regional ambitions. What if some structure wants to pound Israel? Would the PRC CCP supply them the missile hardware for a 1X or 2X state.
The PRC can supply as much as it wishes to its vassal Putin. Even oil.