Key Points – Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Chief Oleh Ivashchenko warns that Russia could be ready to attack Europe within two to four years after the Ukraine war ends, a timeline that could shorten if Western sanctions are lifted.
-This assessment is supported by US General Christopher Cavoli, who notes Russia is rearming faster than expected despite heavy losses in Ukraine.
-While some question Ukraine’s motives for such warnings, citing a desire to maintain Western pressure on Moscow, the risk of a Russian offensive, potentially targeting Baltic states, hinges on complex variables.
-A key factor is President Trump’s future commitment to NATO, as a US withdrawal could create a prolonged window of European vulnerability.
Russia’s Plans for Europe After the Ukraine War Might Mean More War
Russia could be ready to strike Europe within two to four years after the war in Ukraine ends, according to Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence (SZRU) Chief Oleh Ivashchenko.
The timeline, he warned, could shorten dramatically if Western sanctions are lifted, allowing Russia’s military-industrial complex to recover at full speed.
According to reports, Ivashchenko said that the warnings have already been communicated to European partners who are growing increasingly worried that the end of the Ukraine war might only mark the beginning of another.
The Ukrainian official’s warnings were supported by U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. European Command, who said in April this year that Russia is rearming faster than previously believed. Despite enduring one of the longest and bloodiest wars in modern history, with Ukraine claiming close to one million Russian casualties so far, Moscow is proving to be quite capable of replenishing its forces, weaponry, and ammunition.
The news comes as the Russian president ramps up both military pressure on Ukraine, launching one of its largest drone offensives on urban centers across Ukraine on Sunday, and increases tensions with the West.
On Monday, May 26, Putin said that Western companies still operating in Russia must be “strangled” in retaliation for Western sanctions, adding that he made the suggestion “without any shame.” Putin’s comments followed reports from Western media outlets that U.S. President Donald Trump was now “absolutely” willing to explore new sanctions on Russia following its overnight drone strikes in Kyiv and beyond.
Could This Really Happen?
While Ukraine’s assessment seems fair to most observers of the conflict, there are two major points to contend with here. First is the question of whether Ukraine’s assessment is clouded in any way by their obvious desire for Western countries to maintain sanction pressure on Russia.
Ukraine knows at this stage that if President Trump is successful in his efforts to bring Putin to the negotiating table, they will be forced to make territorial concessions.
That being said, Kyiv will, should negotiations reach this stage, prefer any concessions to be minimal, and increasing sanction pressure on Russia now could force Putin to back down on some of his maximalist demands.
There’s also the matter of incentive. While Putin could well have the military resources required to invade Europe only a handful of years after the war ends, particularly if he enlists allies like China to assist in the rebuilding of his weapons arsenal, it is not necessarily the case that Putin would feel compelled to launch new military offensives after his “special military operation” failed to achieve his stated goal in the short time span he initially predicted.
Former NATO Deputy Supreme Commander Europe, Gen. Sir Richard Shirreff, has warned that Baltic states like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are potential targets. A successful Russian incursion into one of these countries would put NATO’s collective defense commitments to the test and force the alliance to choose between escalation and concession.
Whether Putin would actually launch such an offensive, however, depends on a complex mix of political and military variables. Chief among them is the possibility that President Trump could withdraw U.S. support for NATO – an outcome that, paradoxically, becomes more likely if the war in Ukraine ends and Trump claims a diplomatic victory.
A weakened NATO would expose the European continent to a prolonged window of vulnerability that could potentially last decades.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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