Key Points and Summary – President Trump’s 50-day Ukraine ultimatum to Russia is likely to fail because Vladimir Putin believes he can withstand any new sanctions and is not negotiating in good faith.
-Even as Russia’s economy teeters on the brink of recession, the Kremlin remains defiant, believing it has the military and economic resilience to continue its “creeping gains” strategy in Ukraine.
-Furthermore, Russia’s ambiguous nuclear doctrine serves as a constant, underlying threat, giving Putin a trump card should he feel backed into a corner.
-Given this, it’s highly unlikely the deadline will lead to a peace deal.
Three Reasons Trump’s 50-Day Deadline Doesn’t Matter to Putin
By now, it’s clear that U.S. President Donald Trump’s attitude to Russia has changed.
After spending months attempting to de-escalate the conflict, canceling planned shipments of military hardware to Ukraine, and persuading Kyiv to move some of its red lines, Trump has proven that Moscow’s demands are simply immovable.
And after his previous two-week deadline was interrupted by Ukraine’s surprise Operation Spider’s Web attacks in Russia, he has issued one final ultimatum to Russia: come to an agreement in 50 days or face historic new sanctions and a stronger Ukrainian resistance.
Specifically, President Trump promised 100% tariffs on Russian exports if no agreement is made by late September 2025, with secondary sanctions applied to countries that continue to do business with Russia’s energy industry.
It means major markets like China, India, and Brazil will be forced to choose between the United States and Russia – and in the event they choose the States, it’ll cause major damage to an industry on which Moscow depends to fund its war in Ukraine.
It’s a warning that the Kremlin quickly describes as a serious threat that they must now “analyze,” but since Trump issued the warning on July 14 during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, reports have given us a look at how Russian President Vladimir Putin believes this could pan out. And it probably won’t be with a deal.
Putin Believes He Can Sustain the War – Even With New Sanctions
On July 15, Reuters reported that Putin believes he can sustain the war in Ukraine even if President Trump follows through on threats to implement new sanctions and tariffs.
Citing three sources close to the Kremlin, the outlet claimed that Putin believes the Russian economy and military are capable of withstanding new measures from the U.S. and European allies.
One source even suggested that Putin would defy Trump’s ultimatum because he believes nobody has “seriously engaged with him” on the details of peace in Ukraine and that “he will continue until he gets what he wants.”
It’s hard to say exactly how Russia would fare in the event additional U.S. sanctions, secondary sanctions, and tariffs are applied to Moscow and its allies. However, Putin has two months to call those trading partners, determine the likelihood they will comply with President Trump’s conditions, and act accordingly.
So What If He Can’t?
If Putin’s largest trading partners indicate that they will cease doing business with Russia, its fragile wartime economy will certainly take a beating. And it’s already struggling.
On the brink of a recession, the Russian economy relies heavily on revenues from natural gas and oil sales. In 2024, oil and gas brought in roughly $108 billion USD, accounting for as much as 35% of federal budget revenues.
Sales, however, have started to drop – even before President Trump issued his latest threat. Fossil fuel revenues in the second quarter of 2025 already dropped 18% year-on-year to the lowest figure since the beginning of the invasion.
The Russian economy can’t take much more – but with so much damage already done and more than one million Russian casualties, it’s clear Putin’s decisions are not entirely data-driven.
If Russia’s economy can’t easily sustain new measures, the Kremlin may simply choose to adapt.
Nuclear Is On the Table
On July 16, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia’s nuclear doctrine remains intact. In comments made during a Moscow press briefing, Peskov confirmed that “all provisions” of Russia’s nuclear doctrine apply – and in doing so, hinted at the possibility Russia could use nuclear weapons to protect its “national sovereignty.”
You can read more on that topic in my column from earlier in the week.
As I noted in the piece, the conditions outlined by Russia’s nuclear doctrine are open to interpretation. Suppose Putin is backed into a corner, faced with the possibility of defeat in Ukraine and no way of justifying his years-long ‘special military operation’ to the Russian people. In that case, there’s simply no telling what might come next.
Of course, it’s also entirely possible that by the end of September, Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington will have come to an agreement. I’d argue that’s unlikely.
Past behaviour is, after all, the best predictor of future behaviour.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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July 20, 2025 at 2:22 am
The author is correct by default. He misses the real bulls eye but, still hits the tsars elephant in the room.
Putin is in concert with the Han CCP Zi regime. This is not some independent out the window oligarch show.
The same red lines that Stalin used in 1944 – 50 in the commie takeover of China is at play today. Kitman deception is used daily and swallowed whole by MSM in Canada and USA.
For 5 years the POTUS, White house and State Department refused to provide non-communist ally, Han China with ammo/military hardware. The same muscovite tsar elite game is repeated today with Ukraine.
The USA viciously demanded that the non-communist Han population of China give in, surrender, to the communists, Stalin, that is, have their ancient China land and families stolen by stooges of the Bolshevik costumed tsar of muscow: Stalin.
The USA secretly agreed with Stalin + allowed seasoned Korean troops to help steal Manchuria. The USA even used the United Nations as a tool that demanded the Han people appease the communists or be punished. Canada and India were so ready to push for involvement in that.
In 2025, tsar Putin demands to be appeased by MAGA POTUS Trump and his White House. Putin pulls down his shorts, show red lines, and the lefty-pinkoes faint with definite surrender intentions.
Monday, MAGA Trump gifted Putin’s sex trade operation with 50 days of continued unlimited mass child abductions. This is the same as 600 years ago, when Putin’s ancestors had bi-annual caravans go “Harvest” Ukrainian children out in the Ukrainian hinterland. After self satiating themselves on the kiddies, the peasant russians collected Ottoman gold from muslim buyers of these Christian Ukrainian children.
As the Han CCP Zi regime “quiet” funds the Putin tsar economy, the USA MSM pretends that the tsar economy is in trouble. The shipment of military goods from Zi and the North Korean source allows the theft of more Ukrainian soil and the murder/maiming of countless Ukrainian father/volunteers.
When Zi stands behind tsar Putin, the MAGA POTUS Trump will cave, fold, deceive that the free, no-cost, illegal theft of Ukrainian soil and children since 2014 is just nothing.
The scam is like the huge Han population losing their ancient land and freedom from 1945-50 due to the USA fake “kitman” demand the Han appease the Stalin communists. Now, the world sees another POTUS, a MAGA one, unilaterally declare fake time frames and covertly self-appoint themselves, the USA, as negotiators “par excellence”. -30-