Russian Territorial Concessions to End the Ukraine War Should Include Japan

Ukraine has now opened a second front inside Russia as its forces, already consolidating control over Kursk, have moved into Belgorad. Ukrainian troops have shredded the mirage of strength first Soviet leaders and then their Russian successors constructed. Russian forces may have blunted Ukraine’s counter-offensive along the trenches of the Donbas, but Ukraine has demonstrated flexibility and mobility, while Russian commanders remain ossified. Perhaps the best parallel is to the early Arab-Israel wars in which Israel was an underdog. Still, their motivation, creativity, and respect for commanders created a more effective military than the ossified, demoralized, and staid Arab armies.

Washington has sought to restrain Ukraine and force Kyiv to limit fighting to Ukrainian territory, but President Volodymyr Zelensky has wisely defied U.S. advice. Whereas before, repeated diplomatic proposals to trade territory for peace would have forced Ukraine to cede Russian occupied territory like Crimea, Donetsk, or Luhansk, today a more even trade could occur. The more Ukraine seizes Russian territory, the easier such a formula might become. Nor should Russian President Vladimir Putin complain. After all, he was the one who argued immediately prior to the invasion that there was no real difference between Russian and Ukrainian territory. By that logic, Ukraine has as much right to Moscow as Russia does.

Whether before or after Putin and when the guns fall silent and territorial trade can begin, it is essential not to limit the swaps to Russia and Ukraine. From a broader historical perspective, the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was the rule rather than the exception. Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014 and seized a chunk of Georgia in 2008. The Russian military has illicitly occupied Transnistria since 1992. Russia also inherited the Soviet occupation of South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. Russian justification of its claims based on the Yalta Conference fell short as Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin delayed his invasion of the territory until it was too late.

Don’t Forget About Japan

Japan should not only voice its claim but also work to bring it to fruition. Tokyo has already given billions of dollars in aid to Kyiv, but it should go farther, offering Ukraine its most advanced weaponry to reach Moscow and defense installations across the country.

Time should not launder such injustice. Perhaps had the world not acquiesced to Moscow’s land grab against Japan, Putin might have recognized he could not win the long game in Crimea. The Ukraine War will end when Putin dies. A new Russian leader can bury Putin’s folly with the dictator and seek a fresh start. Russia can return to its borders as defined by the 1991 Almaty Agreement that the Kremlin accepted. It can evacuate every inch of Ukrainian but also Georgian and Moldovan territory. After such repeated aggression and needless deaths, however, the West should not settle there.

History Lessons

Russians must learn they will never benefit from conquest. President Joe Biden’s team whispers about yet another re-set. Still, there should be no normalization so long as Russia occupies any neighbor’s territory, from the Kurils to Crimea and from Tuva to Transnistria.

About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics.