Key Points and Summary – Russia’s drone and airspace provocations—from the Baltics to Scandinavia—are less proof of strength than of insecurity.
-While threatening Bornholm and expanding nuclear infrastructure in Kaliningrad, Moscow faces heavy losses in Ukraine and a constrained fleet, turning to global nuisance operations to intimidate NATO.
Su-35. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-The West’s answer isn’t culture-war theatrics but deterrence: consistent arms and economic support for Kyiv, revitalized defense production, and stronger societal resilience.
-Rebuilding conventional and nuclear credibility will raise the costs of Kremlin adventurism and, by extension, dampen Beijing’s appetite for risk.
-Defeating Russia’s campaign of coercion starts with making Ukraine win—and restarting the arsenal of democracy.
Europe on Edge: The Real Response to Russia’s “Mafia State” Tactics
Russia’s multiple probes and provocations over European airspace have engendered anxiety and anger across Europe. Russian drones recently violated Estonian, Polish, and Romanian air space. Another series of drones interfered with flight schedules in Danish and Norwegian airports.
Meanwhile, Russia’s ambassador to Denmark threatened to occupy Bornholm Island, while Russia is steadily enhancing nuclear weapons bases near Sweden, Norway, and Finland. Another site of extensive missile and nuclear construction is in Russia’s Baltic exclave – Kaliningrad now has about 100 tactical nuclear weapons deployed that could reach targets from Germany to Ukraine. Infrastructure in the exclave has also been upgraded with new fences, buildings and communications equipment.
Amid the many Russian provocations, Poland and Denmark have contemplated invoking NATO’s Article IV clause requiring allied consultations. European diplomats are privately warning Moscow that they will shoot down drones and jets conducting provocative operations in the future.
Russia habitually and falsely claims that NATO is threatening its survival as a state – and as a civilization – and that it is therefore at war with Europe. Further, Moscow believes Europe is the aggressor.
These incursions are more than the usual Russian exasperations. First, the campaign of airborne provocations is global in nature – maneuvers are not limited to the Baltics and Northern Europe. Russia now routinely incurs into Alaska, and into Japanese territory in the Sea of Okhotsk. Sometimes these aerial, maritime, or submarine probes are bolstered by Chinese forces, and sometimes they are solo endeavors.
The global aspect of this campaign is what poker players call a tell – something that gives away important information to onlookers and rivals. Moscow is undoubtedly at war, if non-kinetically, with Western governments. Many officials recognize this. Despite years of admonitions that threats at their borders were growing, European armies are not ready for confrontation, nor will they be anytime soon. Consequently Russia persists in escalating its provocations – it seemingly pays no price for doing so – and these represent a continuing effort at deterrence that adds up to intimidation.
However, a truly confident hegemon has no need to repeatedly demonstrate its fearsome destructive powers. Thus Russia’s territorial probes and geopolitical provocations actually stem from a recognition of Moscow’s weakness vis-à-vis NATO – a weakness Moscow is compelled to continually conceal behind shows of supposed strength. Since Russia’s government resembles a mafia state, which by its nature is driven by a culture of intimidation, it has no other choice but to act this way. And while it has enjoyed a long run of success in inflating perceptions of its strength, the West has the means to bring its show quickly to an end.
While territorial probes, and the ongoing militarization of the Russian economy, may suggest that Putin is contemplating a full-scale war against Europe, Russia has hundreds of thousands of troops tied down in Ukraine. Its Black Sea Fleet has been effectively neutralized by Ukrainian missile and drone strikes. These factors work against the possibility of a Russian strike toward Europe anytime soon. But Moscow will continue to escalate its provocations – this is the one way it may wage its war.
The proper response to Russia’s petty warmaking is a comprehensive drive to restore conventional and nuclear deterrence. The West must induce in Putin a fear of launching further attacks. To do this, it must ensure to Kyiv the support necessary for a Ukrainian victory: that means consistent weapons deliveries, as well as economic and diplomatic support. Meanwhile, efforts must go forward to rebuild defense industries and societal resilience throughout the West. The United States and its allies must once again become the arsenal for democracy – not just a flagship for bloated defense-industrial behemoths.
The West does not need misconceived sermons against wokeism (whatever that is), but decisive, intelligently directed, and clearsighted policies and programs, here and in Europe, to deny Putin the victory he seeks in Ukraine and the opportunity to make war elsewhere in Europe.
When I was starting my career, a retired Air Force general told me that in war, the first thing he wanted was a hot production line, i.e. weapons in abundance. This is what is needed today – defense production, and the societal resilience to ward off non-kinetic but nevertheless dangerous provocations. These are the real threats we face: not fantasy threats about the “enemy within,” but a truly lethal campaign of provocations against Western societies.
What Must Happen Now
The revamping of conventional and nuclear deterrents to deal with contemporary threats must take priority. Ukraine’s troubles should have taught us that Trotsky was right when he said, “You might not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.” The United States and its allies are under attack, and the sooner they defeat Moscow, the better.
Further, defeating Russia will dramatically shake China’s confidence in its plans to attack U.S. allies and interests. Beijing has admitted as much. Thus the defense of Ukraine and Europe dovetails with the defense of U.S. interests and allies in Asia. Our enemies know this. We must know it as well.
About the Author: Dr. Stephen Blank
Dr. Stephen J. Blank is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program. He has published over 900 articles and monographs on Soviet/Russian, U.S., Asian, and European military and foreign policies, testified frequently before Congress on Russia, China, and Central Asia, consulted for the Central Intelligence Agency, major think tanks and foundations, chaired major international conferences in the US and in Florence; Prague; and London, and has been a commentator on foreign affairs in the media in the US and abroad. He has also advised major corporations on investing in Russia and is a consultant for the Gerson Lehrmann Group. He is the author of Russo-Chinese Energy Relations: Politics in Command (London: Global Markets Briefing, 2006), and Natural Allies? Regional Security in Asia and Prospects for Indo-American Strategic Cooperation (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 2005). Dr. Blank is also the author of The Sorcerer as Apprentice: Stalin’s Commissariat of Nationalities (Greenwood, 1994); and the co-editor of The Soviet Military and the Future (Greenwood, 1992).
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Jim
October 7, 2025 at 1:20 pm
I find it interesting, the premise and assumption of the article is Russia is guilty of all charges and no evidence is needed to prove guilt, it’s assumed already.
In the Polish incursion of drones, all were decoy or dummy drones with no warheads, made out off Styrofoam & fiberglass, plus an engine and radio control equipment.
We know for a fact Russia used these same-type decoy drones as part of their attacks on Ukraine, these were Russian drones, no one disputes that, but the question is who sent the drones and from where?
We know Zelensky and the Kiev leadership are desperate to draw NATO directly into the war, principally the United States. These drones run out of fuel and fall to the ground in Ukraine as part of the Russian attacks. Easy to recover, refurbish, and reuse at a time & place of Ukraine’s choosing.
Polls taken in Poland show a plurality of Polish citizens believe they were a false flag perpetrated by Ukraine. What purpose would Russia have for such an operation? Russia wants to limit the war to Ukraine & Russian environs… not escalate it.
The drone sightings around airports and military installations in Scandinavia are even less convincing… a bad joke, really… but the author falls for it, every time… like Charlie Brown, Lucy, and the football….
… come on, pull your head out.
Only Ukraine wants to escalate the war. Russia wants to end the war with a victor’s peace: neutrality, equal rights for Russian speakers, a limited military, and new elections for whatever is left of Ukraine upon Kiev putting down its arms and suing for peace.
And, as opposed to the claims of the author, the best evidence currently available suggests Russia is winning the war of attrition and Ukraine will “burn out” if the war isn’t stopped soon according to former general Valerii Zaluzhnyi in a recent interview.
The author suggests “making Ukraine win” is like a formula, one, two, three, take all these steps and presto Ukraine wins.
Sir, Ukraine and its sponsors in the West have spent three and a half years doing everything they could for their proxy to see to it that Ukraine won.
It’s not happening. You’re whistling past the graveyard more than anything else… and desperate to continue the war… always continue it.
Ukraine is being ground down and its people are suffering. At the front, Kiev is running troops to and fro because of critical manpower shortages in the trenches… and it’s starting to buckle in spots while being slowly rolled back all along the front.
The author’s various strategies over the long term are fine, but in terms of the present war, it would be like a dog chasing its tail, never quite catching up to its tail and getting worn out in the process.
These people who want to continue the war, no matter what, don’t care about the Ukrainian People, but more important, don’t care about the American Peoples’ interest… only their perceived self-interest or one of the various factions invested in continuing the war.
End the war. That’s the answer.
Not endless 5th Generation Warfare propaganda. It’s losing its effectiveness, like Peter crying wolf one too many times.
The battlefield will tell, not someone’s propaganda about how the battle is going.
When does war propaganda begin to hurt the American People’s interest?
They have a right to know the truth… not the war crowd’s lies and wishful thinking.
We’ve had enough of that already… enough already!