Summary and Key Points: Russia’s Su-75 Checkmate stealth fighter, envisioned as an affordable alternative to the F-35, struggles to find international buyers.
-Despite aggressive marketing at air shows, potential customers—including India, Algeria, and the UAE—have shown interest but have not placed orders.
-Western sanctions due to Russia’s Ukraine invasion have hampered the jet’s production capabilities, creating supply chain issues.
-Additionally, changing warfare dynamics, highlighted by drone dominance in Ukraine, make expensive fighters less appealing.
Russia’s reputation for overstating capabilities also undermines buyer confidence.
-While the Checkmate offers attractive specifications on paper, its operational future remains uncertain amid the ongoing war and economic limitations.
Su-75 Checkmate Math Problem: No Fighters Exist
Russia’s Su-75 Checkmate stealth fighter is playing a poor game of chess.
Vladimir Putin needs to sell this radar-evading warbird on the export market for the program to pay for itself, as resources are tight during the war in Ukraine.
The Su-75 has no takers; some countries kick the tires but do not pull the trigger on a purchase.
Time is wasted for the Checkmate, and the Russians have tried everything to market the warbird at air shows – including giving away bottles of cologne to sweeten the deal.
Su-75 Checkmate: Where Are All the Customers?
The Russians thought that wealthy or up-and-coming countries in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa who are not able to buy the more expensive F-35 would want an affordable stealth fighter to lord over rivals in their backyards.
After all, nothing says that you have an advanced military, like having a fleet of stealthy warplanes.
The UAE, Nigeria, Algeria, and India were interested but ultimately passed. This must frustrate Putin as he sees Russian aviation designers and engineers as the best in the world.
The Su-75 is a sleek-looking airplane, and it should have air forces around the world salivating.
Sanctions Taking a Bite Out of Production
The Su-75 may not even be ready for export as international sanctions have negatively affected Russian’s ability to acquire advanced parts to make this jet in numbers.
Russia is a pariah after invading Ukraine, and microelectronics and other high-tech components are difficult to come by. This has created supply chain issues and kept the warbird from being produced handily. Even if the Russians inked a contract today, it would likely have difficulty starting up the production lines.
The Days of Dogfighting May Be Over, and Fighter Jets Are Not Needed as Much
The changing nature of warfare is also hurting the sales of the Su-75.
Countries are watching aerial combat over Ukraine and Russia; what they see is surprising. What looked like unlimited dog-fighting with air-to-air missiles and close-in guns at the beginning of the war has not occurred over the last two years.
There has not been much fighter-on-fighter combat. The Russian air force thought that its Su-57 Felon stealth jet would dominate, but the generals decided to keep it out of combat for fear it could be shot down and provide a huge victory for the Ukrainians.
Are Cheap Drones Better Than Expensive Fighters?
The Russian air force has instead kept its fighters out of range of Ukrainian air defenses and launched glide bombs and long-range missiles instead of engaging Ukrainian warbirds up close. Countries that would typically order a fighter are looking at drones instead.
Long-range drone attacks have caught Russian airplanes on the ground outside of hangars. The unmanned craft have destroyed these fighters on land.
Why buy an expensive fighter if it will not dogfight and must stay out of range of enemy air defenses? Or it could be blown up on the ground by a drone. That’s a big waste.
Then there is the Russian habit of over-hyping its weapons systems and even lying about the state of a weapons program.
The Su-75 has been charged with being “vaporware” by the RAND Corporation. That means it could be all talk and no action. The Russians may have mock-ups and prototypes to display at air expos, but this could all be smoke and mirrors. Who wants to place a large, expensive order if this airplane does not progress to serial production?
Su-75 Checkmate: Not Such a Bad Stealth Jet on Paper
The Su-75 Checkmate does have some redeeming attributes. It’s designed to reach a top speed of MACH 1.8 with a range of 1,900 miles.
It costs around $30 million each, which is cheaper than an F-35. It could serve as a drone mothership if the Russians have their way with modern features.
The airplane should fly regularly by next year. Putin’s generals want to build 300 Su-75s, but that sounds optimistic at this point without foreign customers.
Then there is still the war to fight. If there was a ceasefire, Putin could transfer effort over to his aerospace industrial base, figure out the choke points, concentrate on foreign buyers, and fly this thing at air shows to impress customers.
Until then, the Su-75 Checkmate is in the holding phase and is losing on the chessboard.
A checkmate is far from assured.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
