Beyond his promises to build a border wall, President Donald Trump’s three campaigns may best be remembered for his repeated promises to prevent more “forever wars” in the Middle East.
And while Republicans were initially forgiving of the president’s war against Iran, the loyalty of the president’s voters is now being pushed as far as it can go, with voters telling media outlets and pollsters that they are no longer optimistic about the conflict.
After six months of bombing that has failed to bring Tehran to the negotiating table, kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, and only served to radicalize the remaining leadership within the regime, voters are now concerned that the conflict will extend well into the new year and further damage the global economy.
Trump’s approval rating is slipping, too, with a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing that just 33% of Americans have faith in the job he’s doing and just 36% approve of the war.
Those numbers come at the worst possible time, too, with Republicans bracing for what could be a brutal and punishing November midterm election season.
Americans Are Tired of the Iran War
A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll released on August 31 shows the scale of the public dissatisfaction.
The survey found that 54% of Americans disapprove of U.S. military action against Iran, while 68% also disapprove of Trump’s handling of the conflict.
The poll also found that just 27% believe the United States should have gone to war in the first place, and only 25% believe that America is winning.
Voters, it appears, are beginning to feel the economic consequences of a war that, for a short while, didn’t disrupt their lives very much.
Four in five respondents told pollsters that they believe the war has contributed to higher food and gasoline prices — which it has.
The conflict has severely disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and forced Gulf producers to explore creative ways to ensure that crude oil can continue to reach international markets in sufficient volumes.
And that problem is unlikely to be resolved any time soon, with military strikes being exchanged in the strait between Iranian and U.S. forces overnight into Monday, August 31.
Voters know that the trouble continues, too, with a Reuters/Ipsos survey from August finding that 83% of Americans expect U.S. military involvement in Iran to continue for an extended period, and just 12% expecting the war to end in a few more weeks.
Republicans Stood Behind Trump At First
Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran was likely based on his belief that, after his swift victory in Venezuela, he could use the might of the U.S. military to pressure the Islamic regime in Tehran to end its nuclear program.
The president believed that the war would be over in four to five weeks — his own words — and that the world would be protected from a nuclear Iran and the Middle East further stabilized as he continues to build on his Abraham Accords project.
His voters believed him, but after six months of fighting and a significantly degraded U.S. missile stockpile, that support is beginning to weaken.
The decline is most significant among independents and Republicans who simply voted for the president, and not necessarily those who directly support him.
87% of Republicans who strongly identify as MAGA still approve of his handling of Iran, while 58% of those who consider themselves only somewhat MAGA approve of his handling.
Only 30% of Republicans who do not identify with MAGA support his handling of the war so far.
And that’s all bad news for the president, who is hoping that his party can maintain control of Congress and provide him the legislative power he needs to make a difference during the final two years of his last term as president.
What Trump Voters Are Saying
Some Trump voters are even telling news outlets that the war is not what they expected.
The Washington Post spoke with young Trump supporters in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, in June. Among them was 26-year-old conservative voter Jon Showalter, who expressed frustration over repeated suggestions that the war will end soon.
“We keep hearing it’s almost over, it’s almost over,” Showalter said. “We could be right back to it three days from now.”
Another young voter told the outlet that the war isn’t what Trump supporters voted for, and that after voting for the president three times, he feels that he had been misled.
Those voters don’t need to switch parties to hurt Trump.
And, in fact, they may well not do that.
All they need to do is stay home in November, and in conjunction with independents changing their minds, President Trump could soon find that his gamble with Iran was among the worst decisions he has made as president — not necessarily from a long-term perspective (though a case could be made), but a strategic one.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
