The international community is seeing tensions brew and conflicts ignite in various regions worldwide. Eastern Europe, West Africa, East Africa, and the Middle East are all witnessing major wars and some intertwining with the Eastern Mediterranean.
In the Mediterranean Sea, countries such as Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, Turkey, Greece, Syria, and the Palestinian Territories have coastlines along the Eastern Mediterranean. As the Israel-Hamas War continues, tensions with Hezbollah heighten, and Greece, Cyprus, and Turkey remain in a state of conflict; the Mediterranean region is becoming unpredictable and could be a powder keg to even broader turmoil.
Israel-Hamas War and Tensions with Hezbollah
Against the backdrop of the October 7th terrorist attacks by Hamas, the Israeli military has been in operational mode in a war with the Gazan-based militant organization. The war is bloody and brutal as the IDF suffered close to 300 dead, and a plethora of Hamas’ military capabilities were degraded.
The war has come under major international scrutiny for civilian casualties due to the grueling urban warfare and pressure for a ceasefire deal that would see the release of Israeli hostages in return for a cessation of hostilities. Nevertheless, the Israel-Hamas War quickly went regional as the Palestinian paramilitary was backed, trained, armed, and funded by Iran’s ruling theocracy and supplemented by Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, the world’s most powerful non-state actor, is also Iran’s strongest overseas paramilitary. Based in Southern Lebanon since the 1980s, the Shia extremist organization has been a thorn in Israel and frequently fought the IDF on numerous occasions.
Backing Hamas and hoping to take pressure off their Gaza allies, Hezbollah intervened after the October 7th attacks and has launched anti-tank munitions, rockets, and suicide drones at Israel. Likewise, the IDF has responded and killed several highly prominent commanders of Hezbollah in the past several months.
Fears of a wider war with Hezbollah are not only putting the region on edge but world powers on standby. US and French diplomats are working tirelessly to dissuade another Israeli-Hezbollah war as fears of wider Iranian involvement could ensue, which would potentially lead to direct Western intervention, particularly from America.
The Mediterranean countries of Greece and Turkey could also be intertwined in another Israeli-Hezbollah war as Hezbollah’s Secretary General has threatened to launch missiles at the British bases in Cyprus. Because of the guarantor status, if Cyprus is threatened, along with the civilian population, the UK, Greece, or Turkey could potentially take military action directly.
Israeli-Turkish Diplomatic Conflict
Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas has also ignited a Turkish-Israeli split in diplomatic relations. Originally on good relations, Ankara and Jerusalem are now divided, especially as Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling AKP party are giving praise to Hamas and, in some cases, sanctuary to key members of the organization.
Initially having good rapport as Turkey was the first Muslim-majority state to recognize Israel, relations took a nose-dive in the aftermath of the Gaza Flotilla Raid and now have been exacerbated due to Ankara’s close ties with Hamas and Qatar.
Erdogan’s relations with Hamas are raising concerns in the West as the United States is raising diplomatic pressure for Turkey to cut off third-party support for Hamas and to expel high-level finances of the organization from the country.
The geopolitical dispute between Turkey and Israel is something Tayyip Erdogan looks to capitalize on, as his support base around the party is more pro-Neo Ottoman and Islamist than the other secular parties in the Turkish Republic.
Greco-Turkish Tensions and the Cyprus Factor
Greece and Turkey are two regional rivals in the Eastern Mediterranean. They have a millennia-old conflict that is now escalating into a matter of international law and growing regional tensions as the latter openly disputes the former’s economic exclusive zone and UNCLOS.
Despite being a main factor in backing the Treaty of Lausanne, which defines the modern borders of the Middle East and Mediterranean, the Turkish government has slowly reneged on the treaty. Violations include numerous EEZ incursions in Greece’s territorial waters, producing maps of current Greek isles under Turkish rule, and acts that nearly brought the two countries to war, such as the Istanbul pogroms and the Imia Crisis.
The current Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, attempted to mend tensions with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, especially as NATO is focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, Greece is growing bilateral relations and military ties with other countries in lieu of Turkish aggression.
Expanding military ties with Egypt, India, and Israel, Greece looks to deter Turkey from any potential armed conflict, especially as Turkish influence continues to grow not only in the Mediterranean but also in the Middle East and Africa.
In Cyprus, peaceful reunification increasingly becomes difficult as Turkey, 50 years after invading and occupying one-third of the country, refuses to withdraw the 40,000 military contingent and has plans on even greater fortifications of the occupation, including a potential naval base. If internationally-backed diplomacy were to fail in reunifying Cyprus, the probability of a Turkish annexation of the occupied north is a possibility, as reports surfaced Ankara may be prepared to do so.
A Turkish annexation of the occupied areas could very much trigger another major war in the Eastern Mediterranean as Greece, along with Turkey and the UK, has a guarantor status of Cyprus’ territorial integrity and constitution and would be compelled to either militarily intervene or annex the rest of Cyprus if one-third of the island becomes part of Turkey’s territory.
Current Assessments and What to Expect Next
Worsening Turkish and Israeli geopolitical tensions have a far-reaching effect not only on the Middle East and North Africa but also on Greece and Cyprus, which, likewise, have regional disputes with Turkey.
Ankara historically found itself on more favorable terms with the West than Athens and Nicosia. Still, the growingly authoritarian and rogue government of Erdogan has pushed Greece and Cyprus closer to Turkey.
The Cypriot government is in the process of buying Merkava tanks from Israel, and simultaneously, Greece is expanding military cooperation with the latter. All three countries are developing an EastMed pact, which includes energy and defense cooperation, in lieu of expanding Turkish government military activities that expand to Libya.
The combined defense, economic, and energy cooperation between Greece, Cyprus, and Israel levels the playing field in Turkey; however, the Turkish government itself could cause headaches for the Israeli government in several ways. Turkey not only has an extension with Hamas but also a major partnership with Qatar, in which the sultanate of Doha finances extremist organizations.
Turkey, through third-party and off-the-books beneficiaries through Qatar, could potentially indirectly arm, train, and finance Palestinian militant groups to become a major thorn to Israeli foreign interests in Greece and Cyprus.
Qatar is also close to the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is Israel’s greatest adversary today. Several Iranian-led plots have been broken in Cyprus as the Turkish military occupation gives a face to foreign intelligence operations against tourists and civilians, such as Israelis.
A current assessment can be made that major powers such as America and France should exert more foreign pressure and diplomatic incentives in the Eastern Mediterranean. As Israel’s and Turkey’s rift continues to grow, countries such as Cyprus and Greece will become intertwined, setting the stage for another potential regional conflict the world can ill afford.
About the Author: Julian McBride
Julian McBride is a forensic anthropologist, SOFREP contributor, and independent journalist born in New York. He reports and documents the plight of people around the world who are affected by conflicts, rogue geopolitics, and war, and also tells the stories of war victims whose voices are never heard. Julian is the founder and director of the Reflections of War Initiative (ROW), an anthropological NGO which aims to tell the stories of the victims of war through art therapy. As a former Marine, he uses this technique not only to help heal PTSD but also to share people’s stories through art, which conveys “the message of the brutality of war better than most news organizations.” McBride is also a Contributing Editor to this publication.
