Key Points and Summary – The U.S. Navy’s next-generation F/A-XX fighter program faces a critical, potentially fatal vulnerability: a lack of combat range.
-The jet’s projected range is insufficient for aircraft carriers to operate safely outside the reach of China’s “carrier-killer” anti-ship missiles, rendering it a questionable investment.
-The Navy is banking on the new MQ-25 Stingray stealth tanker to solve this problem.
-However, with the program facing severe funding cuts and its limited range raising doubts about its strategic value, the entire F/A-XX effort is in jeopardy and may never come to fruition.
Lack of Combat Range May Hurt F/A-XX Program
There is a fact of life for aircraft carrier operations that is looking like a vulnerability for the U.S. Navy’s strategy, operations, and tactics in the Indo-Pacific.
The Navy’s existing carrier-borne fighters do not have sufficient range, particularly the new sixth-generation fighter jet, the F/A-XX.
The problem is that aircraft carriers must stay out of the combat radius of Chinese anti-ship missiles that could place the flat-tops in harm’s way.
The planned F/A-XX will have only a 25 percent increase in range compared to the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and the F-35C Lightning II.
And that’s even if the F/A-XX ever flies from a carrier in the first place.
The F/A-XX Will Desperately Need an Aerial Refueling
Navy Rear Admiral Michael “Buzz” Donnelly, chief of the Air Warfare Division within the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, spoke to reporters at the Navy League’s Sea Air Space conference this spring.
The F/A-XX will reach “probably over 125 percent of the range that we’re seeing today to give us better flexibility operational reach,” Donnelly said.
“So, it will definitely have longer inherent range.”
When asked whether this 125 percent meant 25 percent more capacity before you start adding in refueling, Donnelly replied, “Yeah, Affirmative.”
MQ-25 Stingray Could Provide the Answer
The Navy is depending on the new stealth tanker drone called the MQ-25 Stingray.
This will enable the F/A-XX to fly further and conduct a radar-evading aerial refueling operation.
The Stingray also has good news for the Super Hornet and Lightning II. But it is the F/A-XX that is in doubt.
Is all that development cost and time worth a new fighter that has only 25 percent more range with an aerial refueling?
Boeing and or Northrop Grumman could build an F/A-XX with a larger combat radius, knowing that the range problem is coming front and center for the sixth-generation warbird.
Could Both the F-47 and F/A-XX Share Features to Save Money?
Boeing has the contract for the new F-47 NGAD, and there may be a way to cut costs by incorporating features from the F-47 into the F/A-XX, particularly by sharing the engine and the ultra-stealth coating.
Northrop is also building the new B-21 Raider stealth bomber, and radar evasion features from the Raider could be used on the F/A-XX.
The F-35C does not have the best range. The naval version of the Lightning II can fly around 670 nautical miles without refueling.
The Super Hornet’s range extends roughly to 1,200 nautical miles, but that’s not fully loaded with munitions. What does that mean for the F/A-XX? The combat radius for the new fighter would only be about 838 miles.
Don’t Forget China’s Carrier-Killing Missiles
China’s “carrier killer” missiles, like the DF-21D and DF-26, have ranges estimated at 1,035 to 1,726 miles, respectively.
Since the F/A-XX is expected to replace the F/A-18 E/F, the Navy will be pinched for range.
The MQ-25 tanker could help, and that’s what the Navy hopes will solve the range problem. The drone can also conduct intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions in a pinch. The Stingray will be fully operational in 2026.
Will We Even See the F/A-XX Come to Fruition?
Could the F/A-XX’s poor combat radius without tanker refueling be a negative trait that could get the program cancelled?
Why spend all of those funds when the Navy could just purchase more F-35Cs? It seems the Navy is envious of the Air Force’s F-35 program, which has President Trump’s affection.
He announced it to great fanfare in the Oval Office, and the new airplane may have been named after the 47th president.
The Super Hornet is aging and lacks stealth capabilities, but it has served the Navy well during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
But it appears the F-47 is going to suck up most of the resources dedicated to sixth-generation flight at the Pentagon.
The Navy has requested $1.4 billion from Congress for the F/A-XX program for FY2026. However, the F/A-XX also has elements of its design on the Department of Defense’s “unfunded priority list” and this would shrink potential funding to only $74 million for FY2026. That amount would barely be enough to create an initial design and not enough research and development dollars to ready the airplane for serial production by 2030 to 2035.
The $74 million would allow the contract for the F/A-XX to be awarded to a defense contractor.
That is an essential step for the sixth-generation fighter program, but there would not be enough funding next fiscal year to do much else.
This could prove to be the death knell for the Navy’s sixth-generation program. Its lack of an elongated range is not helping the situation.
F/A-XX: What I Would Do
I recommend to Congress, if I were to testify to lawmakers, that the F/A-XX needs to be fully funded.
The airplane provides the Navy with an ultra-stealth option and is expected to work seamlessly with the Stingray stealth tanker to extend its range.
The Navy needs to replace the aging Super Hornet, and with the F/A-XX, then the Navy will have a potent one-two punch against China, which has both the stealth J-20 and the J-35. It would be nice if the F/A-XX had a greater range, but this can be mitigated with its ultra-stealth capability.
Let’s give the F/A-XX a chance with greater funding before we leave it stillborn in the crib.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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