Key Points – President Donald Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to Los Angeles to counter protests against immigration raids is seen as a deliberate political move rather than simply a law-and-order action.
-The confrontation with California’s Democratic leaders allows Trump to project an image of authority while focusing on immigration, his strongest issue according to recent polling data.
-While Trump has threatened to escalate by sending in Marines, analysts suggest the current deployment is “mostly for show,” a calculated effort to energize his base and leverage an issue where he has seen a significant polling improvement since his first term.
National Guard in LA: A ‘Showdown the White House Has Been Waiting For’?
There are few times when Donald Trump appears more comfortable and in his element than when he is dealing with riots, and being seen as putting them down.
The social unrest that followed the killing of George Floyd took place during Trump’s first presidency, and one of the more indelible images of that summer is of Trump and his subordinates walking from the White House shortly after protesters were gassed in Lafayette Park, and then holding up a bible at St. John’s Church.
Trump likes to project authority while also denouncing his opponents as unhinged radicals and emphasizing immigration, which is his strongest issue. Trump, in his second term, has also seemingly delighted in pushing the limits of what powers he is allowed to exercise.
And if he can go after the all-around conservative bogeyman that is the state of California, all the better.
The conflagration in California allows him to do all of those things. And whether the move he’s making there represents a good-faith attempt at keeping the peace, as opposed to a cynical political ploy, remains to be seen.
The Battle of Los Angeles
The Trump Administration has been carrying out immigration raids in Los Angeles in particular, which have been met with protests.
Trump has also sent the National Guard, threatening to send even more force, over the objections of both California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, who both avowed enemies of the president.
According to an analysis by CNN, this is “the showdown the White House has been waiting for.” It adds that the National Guard deployment, in particular, “appears at this point to be mostly for show, intended to create the perception of the administration getting tough.”
Trump has also threatened to deploy 500 Marines to Los Angeles, which the analysis called “a stunning and constitutionally dubious escalation if they were to show up in Los Angeles.”
In a pair of Truth Social posts on Monday, Trump declared “Looking really bad in L.A. BRING IN THE TROOPS!!! And “ARREST THE PEOPLE IN FACE MASKS, NOW!”
“Begging For a Fight”
Appearing on CNN Monday, polling analyst Harry Enten stated that Trump is “eager for an immigration fight.” Enten notes, citing CBS polling data, that while Trump’s approval rating on the immigration issue was -17 at one point during his first term, it’s now +1, which is also higher than his approval rating overall.
“There is no issue on which Trump is doing so much better than he was in his first term, more than the issue of Immigration,” Enten said. “Trump is begging for a fight on this because he knows what he’s doing so far is working with the American electorate.”
Enten added that majorities, albeit small ones in the low 50s, approve of Trump’s deportation programs, as well as the idea of “agents searching your town for those they think are here illegally.”
Trump, however, remains underwater in his overall approval rating, although by only -2.1, according to the latest polling average from RealClearPolling. Trump’s average disapproval rating had exceeded 50 percent at one point last week, but is now down to 49.6 percent.
How Does This End?
Every indication is that Trump’s base wants to see federal law enforcement agents in action. And protesters, wearing masks, waving Mexican flags, and setting Waymo cars on fire certainly fit the bill.
However, in most situations of social unrest, the arrival of the National Guard tends to come closer to the end of the difficulty, as opposed to the beginning.
But with the Trump Administration having immigration crackdowns as a key objective, and protesters unlikely to give up anytime soon, we can likely expect more weeks like this one before Trump’s time in the White House is over.
About the Author:
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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