Key Points – Assessments of Russia’s air power losses in Ukraine vary significantly. US European Command chief General Christopher Cavoli stated that Russia’s air force has lost only about 10% of its fleet and is reconstituting rapidly.
-However, other analyses suggest a more severe impact, with front-line fighter strength potentially down by 25% of pre-war levels due to combat losses and accelerated airframe wear from overuse.
-Russia’s current procurement of new Su-30/34/35 aircraft (around 20 per year) reportedly struggles to keep pace with these attrition rates. The arrival of F-16s for Ukraine further complicates Russia’s air operations.
The Russian Air Force Has Taken A Beating In Ukraine, Or Has It?
Everyone except the US military believes the Russian air force has suffered very heavy losses in Ukraine. The number of troops, tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, etc., has been staggering. And they have lost at least 100 fixed wing combat aircraft.
The Ukrainians believe that number is even higher. And it isn’t all old airframes that are being shot up over Ukrainian skies. It is their top of the line stuff, Su-35s, MiG-35s, and Su-27s.
Surprisingly, Moscow’s Su-57 fifth-generation fighter series has not played a particularly large role in the Ukrainian war to date. Despite its much ballyhooed capabilities by Russia, It has been a ghost during the war. Perhaps this platform isn’t quite what is cracked up to be. Would Russia exaggerate? Say it ain’t so.
The US military Is Saying Russia’s Air Power Is Unchanged
But the US military is saying that at most, the Russians have lost only about 10 percent of their front-line air power. And military capabilities remain largely unaffected after more than two years of war in Ukraine, the top U.S. commander in Europe told Congress.
“We do not see significant losses in the air domain, especially their long-range and strategic aviation fleets,” Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing.
“Russia’s strategic forces, long-range aviation, cyber capabilities, space capabilities, and capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum have lost no capacity at all. The air force has lost some aircraft, but only about 10 percent of their fleet,” Cavoli added.
“Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested,” Cavoli said. “The army is actually now larger—by 15 percent—than it was when it invaded Ukraine.” However, while that may be true, Russian conscripts are showing up to the front ill-trained and equipped.
Analysts Point To Front-Line Losses Closer to 25 Percent
The Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS, continues to burn through the lifespan of its fighter aircraft in the war against Ukraine. After two years of air war, its total force is slightly less than 75 percent of its prewar strength.
Defense News reported that “based on updated information, the VKS is on track to suffer approximately 60 imputed aircraft losses this year from overuse. That is equivalent to losing 26 new airframes. Meanwhile, the VKS currently procures only about 20 total Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35 aircraft per year.”
Accelerated aging of many of the VKS airframes may be shaping Russia’s combat operations. The majority of VKS fighters operating (and lost) over Ukraine are the newer Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35 aircraft, with occasional reported sightings of Su-25s.
The older MiG-31s and Su-27s have been relegated to supporting hypersonic Kinzhal strikes and long-distance air patrols. With an estimated average remaining airframe life of less than 20 percent and 35 percent, respectively, these older aircraft can be used for this war, but likely have insufficient life to support any future potential invasions.
We’ve heard rumors of the Russians having designs on Moldova, and massing on the border to the Baltic Nations (Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia) and against Finland. Still, with its force aging, anything other than a lightning-quick operation would be out of the question.
The arrival of F-16s from the US has boosted Ukraine’s defenses. Russian military bloggers were lamenting the shooting down of an SU-34 Fullback by an F-16 encounter in October. It is also a way to stir up sentiment against the US.
Russian aircraft have a service life of between 2,200 and 2,500 hours. American-built aircraft have much longer service lives of 8,000 flight hours, extended to 12,000 (F-16 Block 70s also come with an expected 12,000 flight hours).
But the bottom line is that the Russian VKS can’t afford to suffer this kind of loss for much longer; it will not be able to replace the aircraft it has already lost. Getting smashed in the skies above Ukraine will eventually create some serious problems for Putin.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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