Key Points and Summary – The U.S. Air Force is facing a severe modernization crisis. Its fleet is shrinking to its smallest size in modern history, with over 60% of its aircraft now decades old.
-This “recipe for losing future wars” is the result of chronic underfunding, especially compared to the Army and Navy in the years after 9/11.
-The long-standing “divest-to-invest” strategy—retiring old planes to fund new ones—has failed to keep pace.
-Now, the service is in a desperate balancing act, trying to procure new F-35s and B-21s while its overall combat-ready force continues to shrink.
Can The U.S. Air Force Rebuild Its Shrinking Fleet With Modern Aircraft?
In 1984, President Reagan, in the midst of rebuilding America’s military, said, “None of the four wars in my lifetime and none of the wars that you have seen came about because we were too strong. History shows that weakness invites tyrants to believe that the price of aggression will be cheap.”
The United States Air Force is in a similar situation to what President Reagan stated, as it attempts to modernize its fighter fleet by replacing older, Cold War-era airframes with modern fighters.
And the Air Force is shrinking. In 2017, during President Donald Trump’s first term, the service had 5,500+ aircraft of all types. The Air Force expects its fleet of aircraft to drop below 5,000 in fiscal 2025, as retirements of older, worn-out, and outdated airframes outpace the procurement of their replacements. The fleet is expected to fall to 4,903 total aircraft next year, before further reductions.
“Right now, the Air Force is as big as it will be,” Maj. Gen. Dave Tabor, director of programs for the service’s Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, said in March. “In light of the budget uncertainties, it’s really difficult to predict exactly what size [the fleet] will be, next year or five years from now.”
At its peak, the Air Force had more than 26,000 aircraft in 1956.
What Challenges Does The U.S. Air Force Face?
A significant portion of the USAF fighter fleet consists of aircraft designed in the 1960s and 1970s, which are now averaging decades old. This aging fleet results in increased maintenance downtime and negatively impacts readiness levels.
Ten current aircraft in the inventory first flew more than 50 years ago. Those aircraft comprise more than 2,600 airframes, or more than 60 percent of the Air Force’s fleet.
The Air Force’s aircraft inventory is far too small to handle all the missions it is tasked with accomplishing, with fewer than half the bombers and fighters it had in 1991 during Operation Desert Storm.
B-1B Lancer Bomber National Security Journal Photo.
The USAF has not received sufficient funding in the past to procure a replacement volume of fighters to adequately replace the aging fleet.
For decades, the service has employed a “divest-to-invest” strategy, retiring older aircraft to free up funds for new acquisitions; however, this approach hasn’t yielded sufficient savings to keep pace with modernization needs.
Congress invested over $1.3 trillion more in the Army than the Air Force in the 20+ years after 9/11. Likewise, it invested over $900 billion more in the Navy than in the Air Force in the same period. This imbalance is a recipe for losing future wars.
“Our service lacks the required funding and resources, even as the potential for near-term conflict grows,” said Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin recently. “In short, America needs more Air Force, and it needs it now.”
Retiring older aircraft doesn’t free up enough funds to buy new ones and negatively impacts the skilled talent base needed to maintain those mission areas, according to Breaking Defense.
Rebuilding With Modern Fighters And Bombers
The Air Force faces a significant challenge in balancing investments in next-generation programs, like the F-35 and the F-47 Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD), with the need to sustain a combat-ready force using proven platforms like the F-15EX. This balancing act also has involved the new B-21 Raider stealth bomber.
What Are The Answers For the Air Force?
The USAF is continuing to accelerate the retirement of older aircraft, including the A-10 fleet, to free up funds for modernization. However, this approach is not without its critics and requires Congressional approval, but it is needed.
The Air Force is investing in newer platforms, such as the F-35 and the F-15EX, a modernized version of the F-15. The F-15EX is being considered for air defense and homeland security missions, potentially complementing stealth aircraft like the F-35. According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, in 2025, the Air Force plans to divest 250 aircraft while buying 91.
B-52 Bomber Bombs. Image Credit: National Security Journal.
The Air Force is already building the F-47 NGAD, which will be the first sixth-generation fighter, but concerns exist about its potential cost.
The USAF is also focused on upgrading fourth-generation fighters, such as the F-15EX and F-16, to keep them combat-relevant and capable in the short to medium term.
Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), or the “Loyal Wingman” program, is needed. The USAF is exploring the use of unmanned CCAs to accompany manned fighter jets, potentially altering the future composition of the fighter fleet.
The Department of the Air Force emphasizes the importance of reviving the defense industrial base to support modernization efforts, according to the Department of the Air Force Posture Statement Fiscal Year 2026.
Gen. Allvin added, “I think we need more options for the President. And that’s what the Air Force provides. It means everything from rapid response all the way to decisive victory.”
While the USAF is working to modernize its fighter fleet by retiring older, Cold War-era airframes and procuring modern fighters, it must be cautious not to strip the fleet of too many capable aircraft.
It is a balancing act that the Congress and General Allvin will need to tread carefully. It can be done, but it will not be easy.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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Horsemen
July 25, 2025 at 8:41 am
Weakness is why trump and netanyahu were able to bomb iran in an ultra aggressive warlike manner.
Or very unrestrained manner.
Ditto the daily slaughter in gaza.
But the traditional threat from USAF is now being replaced by the less well understood but far more dangerous new threat posed by long-ranged US missile systems like the typhon and the ATACMS and HIMARS.
Those systems are being speedily proliferated all around the world today, and they’re far more dangerous than USAF jets.
So, how to counter them.
By proliferating rival systems like the Korea KN-series missile systems.
Jim
July 25, 2025 at 10:53 am
How can this be? The biggest defense budget in the World, topping a trillion Dollars this coming fiscal year.
Given the monies that have been spent every year for decades… it leaves one wondering where the bang for the buck is going.
U. S. defense contractors achieve very low bang for the buck efficiently & economy… these people are driving around in Cadillacs and putting out weapons so expensive… meanwhile, troops end up sleeping in substandard housing in some instances… and we can only produce so many units because production runs at scale limit the numbers that are built.
It’s complicated, I know, but somehow we have to crack this expense per unit crisis or understand why we seem to be in a runaway cost control situation.
My suspicion, runaway, blowout defense budgets have left defense contractors fat, complacent, and protected by their lobbyists in Washington.
There’s a sense of impunity in the corporate C suits of these defense contractors.
We gotta knock some coconuts together and look for a solution, if one exists.