The Trump Administration is trying to end the Ukraine war. Could it happen? Trilateral talks between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine are taking place in Abu Dhabi. Europe has not been invited to the meeting.
The goal is to create an enduring framework for finally ending the war in Ukraine.
U.S. Soldiers assigned to 3rd Battalion, 8th Cavalry Regiment, 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division fire an M1 Abrams at enemy targets during Rotation 24-06, at the National Training Center, Fort Irwin, Calif., April 11, 2024. Rotations at the National Training Center ensure Army Brigade Combat Teams remain versatile, responsive, and consistently available for current and future contingencies. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Julie Jaeger, Operations Group, National Training Center)
An M1A1 Abrams tank from 1st Tank Battalion, 3rd Marines, maneuvers before a live fire assault at Shoalwater Bay Training Area, Queensland, Australia, on May 25, 2001 for Exercise Tandem Thrust 2001. Tandem Thrust is a combined military training exercise involving more than 18,000 U.S., Australian, and Canadian personnel who are training in crisis action planning and execution of contingency response operations.
(DoD photo by Sgt. Bob O’Donahoo, Australian Army. (Released))
This is the first time the three parties have met like this since earlier this year.
The trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi are scheduled for two days.
Previous rounds of these talks failed.
Tuesday’s opening session lasted four hours, and negotiations are scheduled to resume on Wednesday.
At the core of these talks is establishing security guarantees acceptable to both Moscow and Kyiv.
This is occurring at a time in which the Ukrainian military is increasingly on the defensive on the front lines and in which Russia is subjecting Ukraine to intensive bombings targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure, all as Winter approaches.
To say these talks are on a rapidly ticking clock is an understatement.
The Meeting
US Special Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, are leading the American delegation in Abu Dhabi.
NATO’s senior military commander, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, also participated.
Kushner has indicated that Washington believes compromises may be possible despite the considerable differences separating Moscow and Kyiv.
The Trump administration is pursuing something broader than a ceasefire.
American officials are exploring a comprehensive European security agreement addressing Russia’s relationship with NATO, Ukraine’s future military posture, and any security arrangements that may govern the continent in the future.
For his part, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov supports a broader European collective security framework.
Moscow wants a broader diplomatic framework to address Russia’s longstanding objections to NATO’s expansion and military activities.
European governments remain concerned that Washington will accommodate Russian security demands at Ukraine’s expense.
But there seems less chance of reaching an agreement in such a short time, as Russian forces try to change the facts on the ground in the Ukraine War by military force.
Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his demands that Ukrainian forces withdraw from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, the four oblasts in Eastern Ukraine that Moscow has claimed since 2022.
Despite its large presence in these four oblasts, Russia does not yet fully control the region.
Moscow also opposes Ukraine’s potential NATO membership.
What’s more, Putin’s government insists that Kyiv accept restrictions on its armed forces, and modify its hardline stance opposing the teaching of Russian language and culture–including Kyiv’s pressure campaign on the Russian Orthodox Church inside Ukraine–for any deal to be reached.
Kyiv finds all this unacceptable, which explains why there has been no real movement on a diplomatic resolution since 2022.
The Ukrainian leadership has rejected any limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also opposed any territorial concessions.
Zelenskyy and Putin cannot even agree on the need for a ceasefire before negotiations resume. Meanwhile, Kyiv is demanding stronger security guarantees from Washington to prevent another Russian invasion.
Zelenskyy has also insisted that any discussion of territorial concessions requires face-to-face meetings with Vladimir Putin, which the Russian leader has thus far refused.
Europe Left Out
Russia has also insisted on the trilateral format. Moscow does not want to include European governments in the principal negotiating framework, which has incensed America’s European allies, who believe they should have a seat at the table to support the Ukrainians and protect their own interests.
The Trump administration recognizes that a durable settlement would need European input, though. Nevertheless, the Europeans are not present at the table.
Germany’s increasingly bellicose Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed skepticism that any meaningful progress would be made.
Moscow has said it would be amenable to European participation later, but opposes their direct involvement in the current negotiations.
Even as the two sides are meeting, long-range missile attacks have been conducted by both countries against each other.
Ukraine’s air force reports that Russia launched 162 drones and one ballistic missile overnight.
Russia’s Defense Ministry claims that it intercepted 155 Ukrainian drones across Russian regions and Russian-occupied Crimea.
The day before, though, Russian attacks hit Ukrainian electrical infrastructure as Moscow intensified its campaign against the country’s energy network ahead of Winter.
The Americans are cautiously optimistic.
In fact, Trump has suggested that Russia and Ukraine were nearing an agreement (even as Trump’s own secretary of state, Marco Rubio, publicly claimed otherwise).
The Abu Dhabi talks are important.
Not because they could end the war.
They do not.
But because they represent a resumption of diplomacy and a possible step toward it.
This meeting establishes a framework for more negotiations.
If these discussions produce progress, Witkoff and Kushner could then travel to Moscow and Kyiv to meet with Putin and Zelenskyy.
Unknown Results
Until then, much uncertainty remains.
Can Washington construct a security agreement that satisfies Russian demands without undermining Ukrainian sovereignty?
Can a new security framework that governs all of Europe be crafted, with Russian forces closing on Ukrainian forces and the Trump administration having only two years remaining in office?
Until these competing objectives can be resolved, the war will continue.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is the Senior National Security Editor at 19FortyFive.com. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert is the co-host of The Mario Nawfal Show on Twitter/X. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, most recently A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). His next book, Fortress Americas: A New Monroe Doctrine (Tucker Carlson Books), is due out December 8. Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
