President Donald J. Trump, at least according to a Reuters poll this week, has the lowest approval rating of his second presidency and is tied for the lowest across both of his presidencies. The war in Iran, which Trump launched and with which he is closely associated, is also wildly unpopular; there’s not much confidence among anyone in either party that the United States will be able to pull itself out of that conflict anytime soon.
Therefore, the Iran War, along with rising gas prices and related inflation, is likely to be top of mind for voters as the November election approaches. And that could be bad news for the GOP, beyond the traditional expectation that the president’s party will lose seats in a midterm election. And the Republicans are already defending a slim majority in the House.
FORT MOORE , Ga. Maneuver Center of Excellence hosts the 2024 Armor Week media day on Harmony Church Mar. 14, 2024. The event featured live-fire demonstrations with the M1 Abrams Main Battle Tank, and an opportunity to get up close and hands-on with M1 Abrams and M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle. Armor Week, April 29 to May 3, and the 2024 Sullivan Cup competition requires mastery of individual tasks, technical and tactical competence, and the ability to demonstrate an array of maneuver, sustainment, and gunnery skills. The competition focuses primarily on the performance of the Soldiers functioning as a crew. (U.S. Army photo by Patrick A. Albright)
Secretary of the Army, Hon. Dan Driscoll, fires a round from a M1A2 Abrams Tank while visiting Fort Stewart, GA., June 23, 2025. Secretary Driscoll met with Soldiers and leaders from the 3rd Infantry Division implementing transformation in contact initiatives, and had candid conversations with Soldiers about quality of life concerns to help find solutions to scale across the Army. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. David Resnick)
“One Person Kind of Controls Our Fate”
A CNN report on Tuesday looked at how Republicans are approaching this dynamic.
CNN reported that some Republicans are “growing impatient” with the continuing war, which they fear “threatens to further imperil their chances in the midterms.” However, as the story notes, very few Republicans still running for Congress have publicly broken with the president. Most Republicans in the House with any degree of public skepticism toward Trump have either declined to run again or lost their primaries.
Those candidates are “gambling that voters can stomach the economic pain of the war for national security.
“Let’s deal with this now, and let’s get it done,” Rep. Zach Nunn of Iowa, who is running for re-election, said of the war, contrasting that with the position of Democrats, whom he implied want to give up on the Iran mission.
Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist in Arizona, was a bit more circumspect about the party’s predicament.
“There is one person in this country who doesn’t care about gas prices — just one — and unfortunately that one person kind of controls our fate,” Marson told CNN. “For Republicans, it is a balancing act on the thinnest of wires to still support the president but also feel the pain that voters are going through.”
Indeed, Trump said at a rally last week that he would never apologize for high gas prices and told his supporters that a bit of a pain at the pump is worth it to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Even House Speaker Mike Johnson, a consistent Trump booster, told reporters that week that “the Iran conflict has been the cause, of course, of gas prices going up. It’s drug on,” although the speaker expressed confidence that a “new phase” of the war will lead to gas prices dropping.
One lawmaker speaking to CNN was honest about the war being a “mess,” although that senator is not on the ballot this year.
“We’ve gone through months that everybody sat back and said, ‘Oh, it’ll be OK. It’ll be OK.’,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-WV) told CNN. “I’ve been the voice that’s been saying, ‘You people are living in a cave if you don’t see that the folks out there, the Toby and Ediths out there, are hurting… We need to absolutely be more in tune with them.”
After 2026
Throughout Trump’s time in politics, Republicans who have crossed or opposed Trump have either changed their tune and become allies (like the late Sen. Lindsey Graham) or soon found themselves out of politics altogether (like former Sen. Bob Corker, former Rep. Liz Cheney, Rep. Adam Kinzinger, and numerous others). Some have quit Congress or not run again, while others have lost primaries to opponents more loyal to Trump.
But once the midterm elections are over, that phenomenon may start to dissipate. That’s because Trump will become a lame duck and be unable to run again. And no one in either house of Congress will have to run again either, at least until 2028, when Trump won’t be on the ballot.
This doesn’t mean Trump won’t still make endorsements or wield influence, even as he moves out of office. But that influence will almost certainly weaken over time, especially if Trump and the Iran war remain unpopular.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
