The Iran war has jacked up oil prices dramatically, and Trump has few ways to bring it back down: The average gasoline price in the United States, as of GasBuddy’s weekly report on Monday, was $4.24 per gallon, down slightly from the previous week and month but still high by historical standards, up more than a dollar from a year ago.
Some of the recent decline, analyst Patrick De Haan wrote, was due to some states suspending their gas taxes.
A U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress bomber, deployed from Barksdale Air Force Base, La., lands at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, July 4, 2020. The B-52 flew the 28-hour mission to demonstrate U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s commitment to the security and stability of the Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Richard P. Ebensberger)
A U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress flies a show of presence mission over the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, Feb. 20, 2025. Strategic bombers contribute to stability in the CENTCOM theater by demonstrating the credibility, capability, and readiness of the U.S. bomber force, which is critical to deterring attacks against the U.S. and its allies and partners. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Jackson Manske)
“For now, the outlook remains tied to geopolitical developments,’ De Haan wrote in the report.
Americans are paying more at the pump, and they’re blaming the president and his Iran war.
And that’s bad news for Donald Trump and his party, with the midterm elections less than two weeks away.
From the Pump to the Polling Station
According to an analysis by The Guardian, energy analysts say Trump probably can’t meaningfully bring down gas prices by the time voters head to the polls on November 3.
Trump has taken several steps to lower costs, from a diesel fuel subsidy for farmers to promoting “red dye” diesel to the controversial move to lift sanctions on Russia and buy diesel from that country. Experts say none of those will significantly affect gas prices in the near term.
“Diesel prices for Americans and, indeed, the world, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!” Trump wrote in an October 9 Truth Social post.
But experts disagree.
Andrew Critchlow, head of energy news for Dow Jones Energy, told The Guardian that the oil purchased from Russia is not new supply.
“It was going someplace. It was going someplace at a discount,” Critchlow told the newspaper, adding that instead Trump is buying it at full price.
The deal’s biggest effect will be to give Russia a “windfall” at a key point in its war with Ukraine.
Even if Trump could affect gas prices, a Politico poll published earlier this month said it wouldn’t help Republicans much, even if Trump pulled off a “last-minute move” to bring down gas prices or end the Iran War.
Voters were also skeptical that Trump could deliver such achievements.
“I think a lot of the die is already cast,” Mike Noble of the polling firm Noble Predictive Insights told Politico in that early-October story.
“It’s tough talking to Republicans, unless they’re just incredibly big die-hards. Like, how do they get motivated right now? Democrats are clearly motivated.”
The Guardian also said the upcoming winter could drive prices even higher because demand for heating oil is growing.
Energy prices typically rise in summer and winter and are unusually high for October. That shows, once again, that solving high gas prices is easier said than done.
Newsweek, citing a recent New York Times/Siena University poll, wrote that Trump has “supermajority disapproval” on gas prices.
The poll found that 73 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of gas prices, compared with 24 percent who approve.
It was Trump’s worst issue of all those featured in the poll, which found that overall, 36 percent of voters approve of Trump’s performance in office and 59 percent disapprove.
That number drops to 34 percent among registered voters, Trump’s worst-ever number by that measure.
The Times’ Nate Cohn also said that it marked the worst approval rating by a president heading into the midterms since Harry Truman in 1946.
A Solution in India?
The Associated Press wrote this week about a potential route: India.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently visited the country and toured an oil-refining complex that could refine Venezuelan oil.
Rubio went to Jamnagar in India’s Gujarat state as part of an effort to get India to diversify its energy imports, which, according to the AP, are mostly from Russia.
“They can refine heavy crude,” the secretary of state said of the facility in India. “They’ve done so in the past, and I think as more and more Venezuelan oil comes online, it’s something they can do.” He added that such a setup could help solve the bottlenecks caused by current wars in multiple parts of the world.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
