PUBLISHED on August 6, 2025, 1:37 PM EST – As up-and-coming potential allies go, India is at the top of the heap. It’s already the fifth-largest economy in the world; PriceWaterhouseCoopers estimates that by 2050, it will move up to the second spot. In 2024, U.S. trade with India topped $212 billion, an 8.3% increase over 2023. India has the economic might, the population, and the historical distrust of the Chinese Communist Party to serve as a bulwark against Xi Jinping’s expansive view of Chinese power. To top it off, the Indian people overwhelmingly like America.
Trump’s India Mistake Is Historically Bad…
Which makes the Trump Administration’s decision to affirmatively alienate India simply mystifying. Yes, India has continued to buy Russian oil, but it has to; feeding 1.4 billion people requires a lot of fertilizer and growing an enormous nation’s economy requires a lot of energy. The negligible impact India’s purchasing of Russian oil has on Vladimir Putin’s decisionmaking in Ukraine – Putin could just as easily sell the oil to other buyers – warrants little more than telling India we disapprove.
Instead, the Trump Administration has reacted with a fury usually reserved for America’s antagonists. It has doubled the already high tariffs on Indian goods to 50%; this will severely limit trade between our nations. It has lauded and courted the leaders of India’s sworn enemy, Pakistan, and hinted America could start backing that nation instead. Trump himself publicly attacked India’s economy as “dead.”
These actions will do generational harm to our relationship with India. They will turn a promising, critical ally into a neutral party in a best case scenario. In a worst-case scenario, it will turn a rising powerhouse into an outright adversary.
Richard Fontaine of the Center for a New American Security likes to talk about the “Global Swing States” that could either be U.S. allies or Chinese ones. In this analogy, India is Pennsylvania, and the Trump Administration has just blasted ads across the state calling the Steelers, Eagles, and Nittany Lions losers and promising to ruin the state’s economy.
These actions are so mystifying because India and the U.S. can and should form a tight security and economic relationship. For one, India should be a close military ally. It’s purchased over $24 billion of U.S. military equipment, and its major military suppliers include steadfast Western allies like Israel and France. While the lion’s share of its military equipment comes from Russia, its volume of imports from that hostile nation is dropping like a stone; more critically, its military purchases from China are negligible. Most promisingly, it’s taken part in a host of bilateral and multilateral military exercises with the U.S., cementing our ability to work with the Indian military when threats demand as much.
Further, India already is a close partner in combating the mutual scourge of terrorism. As both nations have been on the receiving end of devastating attacks, India and the U.S. have historically shared intelligence, technologies, and even tactics. Those relationships have only gotten closer in recent years.
Finally, the U.S. and Indian economies are near-perfect complements. India consumes the second most food as a nation (largely due to its enormous population) and the U.S. is the world’s largest food exporter. Famously, the American tech sector relies on remote Indian workers with STEM backgrounds. India has an insatiable demand for both American services and for any energy it can get its hands on. The U.S. is now a net energy exporter. What’s more, while there are some instances of U.S. and Indian companies competing with each other, the respective countries’ firms are far more often complementary.
Trump Must Change Course
The U.S.-India relationship isn’t perfect, of course; India’s human rights record is far from flawless. U.S. companies find India’s notorious red tape infuriating. India will never clearly declare itself on the “Western Team” the way allies like Israel, Korea, and the United Kingdom have. It will maintain ties with adversarial nations like Russia.
None of those issues, however, nearly warrant pulling back from what had been, until recently, one of America’s most promising and deepening relationships. It’s possible the Trump Administration is playing 3D chess and angling for a trade deal.
I sure hope that’s the case; if it isn’t, the Trump Administration has made an incomprehensible blunder that will cost us for decades.
About the Author: Neal Urwitz
Neal Urwitz is CEO of Enduring Cause Strategies. He served as a speechwriter for and advisor to Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro from 2021-2023.
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megiddo
August 6, 2025 at 2:05 pm
It’s high-time for new delhi to HIT BACK.
How.
By breaking all diplomatic ties with the nazis of kyiv.
It’s very crystal clear the US and its minions or cronies are actively backing the dreaded nazis simply because they’re fighting russia.
Additionally, new delhi must also demand xi jinping to break all diplomatic relations with kyiv and denounce the bloodthirsty nazis.
If xi refuses, he then is showing his true colors and new delhi must respond by forbidding all china airlines from crossing into Indian air-space.
To hell with xi. He plays a doubmr and triple game over the nazi issue threatening russia. He needs to go to HELL.