Key Points – A new Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report estimates approximately 1.4 million total military casualties in the Russia-Ukraine war, with Russian losses nearing one million (around 250,000 killed) and Ukrainian losses around 400,000 (60,000-100,000 killed).
-Despite this staggering human cost and significant losses to its Black Sea Fleet and long-range bomber force, Russia’s territorial gains since early 2024 have been minimal, advancing at a glacial pace.
-While Russia struggles to sustain this war of attrition, Ukraine faces an increasingly uphill battle, with the conflict’s outcome potentially hinging on continued Western resolve.
The Ukraine War Claims Countless Lives and Injuries
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues into its fourth year, with no prospect of peace in sight, the death and casualty tolls just keep rising.
A fresh report from Washington-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has found that some 1.4 million military casualties have taken place so far in the war.
Russian deaths make up the majority at approximately 1 million, with Ukraine having suffered around 400,000 losses.
Majority of Casualties Are Russian in the Ukraine War
The March 2022 invasion was supposed to be swift. Russian President Vladimir Putin believed he could pull down Kyiv’s pro-Western government in mere days.
Instead, the war has dragged out into years.
CSIS says that approximately 250,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, meanwhile Ukraine has lost around 60,000 to 100,000.
The disparity in casualties may appear to favor Kyiv at first glance, but Ukraine’s smaller population and lack of external manpower sources place it at a growing disadvantage.
Analysts note that Russian forces currently outnumber Ukrainian troops by nearly two to one, thanks in part to foreign reinforcements from countries like North Korea.
Small Russian Gains
Yet despite the massive toll, Russia’s territorial gains have been meager. Since early 2024, Russian advances have slowed to a crawl, capturing less than 1% additional Ukrainian territory.
Some estimates put Russian progress at a glacial 165 feet per day. Today, Moscow controls roughly 19% of Ukraine, but a significant portion of that — Crimea and parts of Donbas — was seized long before the current invasion.
Third of Black Sea Fleet Lost
The cost of this incremental expansion has been enormous. Beyond battlefield deaths, Russia has lost nearly a third of its Black Sea fleet, a comparable portion of its long-range bombers and surveillance aircraft, and a number of top military commanders.
Seth G. Jones, co-author of the CSIS study, did not mince words when speaking to The New York Times, describing Russia’s campaign as “one of the slowest in modern history.” According to Jones, the war’s outcome could ultimately hinge on Western resolve, particularly that of the United States.
Behind the numbers lies a broader truth: Russia’s gamble on a quick victory has transformed into a war of attrition it is struggling to sustain, while Ukraine, for all its valor and Western support, faces an increasingly uphill battle.
With no decisive end in sight, the war threatens to become a grinding stalemate — exacting a heavy price not just in lives, but in the future stability of Europe.
About the Author:
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
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