Key Points – Russia is increasing its military presence and infrastructure along its border with Finland, a new NATO member, repairing airbases and expanding ground facilities.
-While NATO officials and Finland currently assess no immediate invasion threat—as Russia’s forces are heavily committed in Ukraine—this buildup is viewed as the early stage of a larger, long-term expansion. Finland anticipates more Russian troops near its border once the high-intensity phase of the Ukraine war concludes.
-Although this activity raises concerns, a direct Russian attack on Finland is considered unlikely due to NATO’s Article 5 collective defense guarantee.
-Russia’s moves are likely aimed at countering NATO and asserting Arctic interests.
Russia and NATO Have a New Flashpoint: Finland
The war between Russia and Ukraine isn’t over yet, with a recent two-hour phone call between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin not appearing to make any progress on a peace agreement or even a ceasefire, even after Trump promised to end the war within the first 24 hours of his assuming the presidency.
But now, there are worries that there could be trouble on a different border, between Russia and Finland. The difference is, Finland is a member of NATO.
Per a France 24 analysis, Russia has been “increasing its military presence” along its border with Finland, which has been shoring up its own border defenses.
That border, per the report, is the longest border Russia has with any NATO country, although Finland only joined NATO in 2023, after a decades-old policy of neutrality.
As pointed out on X by Finnish military historian Emil Kastehelmi, Russia has “five active air bases near northern Finland and Norway,” and has been “repairing” those bases.
The New York Times, meanwhile, reported earlier this week that Russia has “beefed up” its bases near the Finnish border.
“The imagery, confirmed by NATO officials, shows row after row of new tents; new warehouses that can store military vehicles; renovations to fighter jet shelters; and steady construction activity on a helicopter base that had been mostly unused and overgrown,” the Times reported of the activities.
“So far the moves seem to be the early stages of a larger, longer-term expansion, and NATO officials say this is nothing like the buildup along the Ukraine border before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. For now, Russia, preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, has very few troops along the frontier, and the Finns insist that none of this is much of a threat — yet.”
In addition, per the Times, the U.S. and Finland recently held an Arctic war game together, and quoted Finnish defense officials as saying that they expect Russia will move more troops towards the Finnish border, once the “high-intensity phase” of its war with Ukraine is over.
Could This Mean War with Russia?
This does not mean that Russia and Finland are headed for a shooting war, for a simple reason: Since Finland is a NATO member, an attack on Finland would be seen as an attack on all of NATO under Article 5, which therefore would set off a war between Russia and all of those countries.
At the heart of Russia’s justification for invading Ukraine in the first place was its fears of NATO coming up to Russia’s borders, something that has gradually happened in recent years.
Per the Times piece, Russia is prioritizing bringing troops near where it faces NATO, although that does not mean they’re planning to invade those countries. In addition to the NATO factor, Russia sees “ the Arctic and access in the Arctic [as] a key to great power status,” one senior NATO official told the Times.
Kastehelmi, the Finnish historian who posted the satellite images, told the newspaper that the Russians are “expanding their brigades into divisions, which means that the units near our borders will grow significantly — by thousands.”
The Times also quoted what it called an old Finnish proverb: “Russia is never as strong as it looks and never as weak as it looks.”
Finland’s Leader Speaks Out
Meanwhile, Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, said this week that President Trump is “losing patience” with Vladimir Putin, in their continuing peace talks. Stubb is described by The Guardian as “ one of the small group of European leaders who has the ear of Trump.”
“If we were to pull it together, we could say that Zelenskyy is patient and President Trump is starting to be impatient, but in the right direction, that is, towards Russia,” Stubb said, at a security conference in Estonia.
About the Author:
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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