Key Points – Ukraine’s “Pavutyna Operation” on June 1st, 2025, involved a sophisticated SBU drone attack targeting Russian strategic bomber bases deep within Russia, including Belaya and Olenya.
-Utilizing FPV drones launched from concealed truck-borne containers, the strike reportedly damaged or destroyed approximately 13 high-value aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers and an An-12 transport.
-While a significant tactical success and a blow to Russian prestige, this attack (10% of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet impacted) is unlikely to cripple Russia’s overall long-range strike capability or force a strategic shift in the war, though it complicates peace talks and signals Ukraine’s reach.
Aftermath of Drone Raid: Russia’s Response & the Future of Ukraine War
On June 1st, Ukraine launched a devastating drone attack against two Russian air bases, damaging or destroying multiple strategic bombers of the Russian Airforce. Nicknamed the “Pavutyna Operation,” the attack is one of the most successful strikes Ukraine has pulled off since the start of the war.
However, with any escalatory strike, there is the fear of the Russian response. With an attack so bold, the Kremlin is likely to respond in kind.
Assessing the Damage
The attack occurred during the day utilizing truck cargo containers that had been repurposed into drone carriers. The SBU supposedly snuck at least four of these containers into Russia, two of which either failed to activate or where intercepted.
The attack targeted Belaya Air Base and Olyenka Air Base, both of which are located thousands of miles away from the Ukrainian border deep in Russia. It is likely that Dyagilevo and Engles Air Base were also targeted but based on satellite footage, no damage was sustained.
Based on the footage and satellite images, around eight Tu-95s were struck along with at least four Tu-22M3s, and one An-12 transport aircraft were destroyed. Pro-Ukrainian sources claim that 40 were targeted and destroyed, however, there has not yet been any video or satellite imagery to corroborate these claims, making it likely that they are exaggerated.
Nevertheless, at least 13 high value aircraft were struck in one attack, making it one of the most effective strikes by Ukraine in the entire war. Because production for the Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 ended decades ago, the damaged aircraft are likely to remain out of commission for at least several years before they become operational again.
How Will the Kremlin Respond? Nuclear?
As of now, the Kremlin has remained dead silent, aside from a brief post from the Ru Ministry of Defense assessing the damage. There have not been any official statements made by Putin or any Kremlin officials threatening retaliation or condemning the attack.
Nevertheless, Russia is likely to respond in some way, shape, or form.
According to Russian military doctrine, an attack against the country’s nuclear triad necessitates a nuclear strike in retaliation.
This is unlikely to happen as Russian strategic bombers have been attacked by Ukrainian drones, and the Kremlin has not launched any nuclear retaliations.
Putin is likely to respond by launching more missile attacks against Ukraine while keeping up the current offensive tempo along the frontlines. Based on the Kremlin’s previous responses to escalatory attacks from Ukraine, Russia is unlikely to do more than attack Ukraine with Geran-2 drones and Iskandar MRBMs.
While this approach makes Russia look reasonable, it has the downside of making Putin look extremely weak, not only to NATO, but to Russia’s own population.
Don’t Start the Victory Laps Just Yet
The recent operation from the SBU looks extremely good for Ukraine and humiliating for Russia, but the war is still far from over.
While 13 knocked out bombers is a staggeringly good result for one operation, it is still only about 10% of Russia’s fleet of strategic bombers. Interestingly, no Tu-160 heavy bombers or MiG-31 aircraft were targeted (both of which were housed at Belaya Air Base), leaving Russia with a significant capability still under its belt. Russia’s missile campaign is likely to continue, with strategic bombers still contributing.
While Russia’s strategic bombers have been a significant threat to Ukraine throughout the entirety of the war, currently, the bigger threat is Russian kamikaze drones and ground based ballistic missiles. Over the past couple of weeks, Russia launched more than 500 drones into Ukraine with impacts confirmed throughout the country. The Iskander ballistic missile has also been used to devastating effect. These weapons are more versatile than the Kh-101 cruise missiles launched by strategic bombers. These weapons are more versatile and are much harder to intercept than air launched subsonic cruise missiles. Additionally, Geran-2 drone is much easier and cheaper to manufacture, making it ideal for overwhelming enemy air defenses.
No Diplomatic Solution for the Ukraine War Right Now
Ukraine’s attack was a deliberate message to Russia that conveys two messages. First, it shows to Russia that Ukraine can strike anywhere in Russia (given enough prep time). Both Belaya and Olyenka Air Bases were several thousand miles behind the front lines, and yet Ukraine managed to infiltrate past the front and strike high-value targets.
For Russia, this should be a strong wake up call. Not only was the SBU allowed to smuggle attack drones deep into Russian land, but it was allowed to attack key strategic airbases. In any competent organization, heads would be rolling.
Additionally, it is no mistake that the attack occurred a day before negotiations took place in Istanbul.
Whether intentionally or not, the operation sends a strong signal that Ukraine is not ready to end the war and is willing to go to drastic measures to deal damage to Russia. Between this attack and Russia’s continual drone strikes, it is safe to say that there will be no diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, this may not be the ideal outcome for Ukraine.
If we look away from the airbases back to the front, Russia is in a much better position than Ukraine is.
While the Pavutyna Operation may have been a success, Ukraine is no nearer to expelling the Russians from its land than it was a month ago.
About the Author:
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
Ukraine War
Russia’s Tu-95 Bomber: The Target of Ukraine’s Drone Attack
