Putin Could Test a Tactical Nuclear Weapon to Scare Ukraine

Key Points – Ukraine’s “Operation Spider’s Web,” a meticulously planned drone attack involving 117 drones launched from concealed positions deep inside Russia, reportedly destroyed approximately 40 Russian heavy bombers (Tu-95, Tu-22M3) and an A-50 AWACS aircraft at several airbases, including Belaya.

-This stunning tactical success, a major morale boost for Kyiv, is expected to provoke significant Russian retaliation.

-Potential responses from Vladimir Putin include intensified drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, the possible testing of a tactical nuclear weapon, the cancellation or stalling of upcoming peace talks (such as the June 2nd Istanbul meeting), and a new ground offensive.

Drone Strike Aftermath: What Will Putin Do to Ukraine?

A massive Ukrainian drone attack that destroyed at least 40 Russian heavy bombers took over a year and a half of planning.

Operation Spider’s Web, which Volodymyr Zelensky personally commanded, was stunningly successful and made Russia smart from the ferocity and deep planning behind the strike. Around 117 drones were used on the mission.

The plot was ingenious. Ukraine carried the unmanned craft deep inside Russia by truck and parked it near the bases.

The drones were inside the roofs of wooden mobile cabinets. Then, a remote control apparatus opened the roofs, and the combat drones streamed out.

The main target was the Belaya air base in Russia’s Irkutsk region, catching the Russians totally unprepared in what some are calling a “Pearl Harbor” type of surprise attack.

Three other bases were hit. Seven billion dollars’ worth of bombers were destroyed, making up 34 percent of the Russian fleet, although final numbers will take time to be finalized. An A-50 airborne early-warning and control aircraft and Tupolev Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic airplanes were blown up.

Russia Executes Its Revenge Drone Attacks

This raises a question. What will Vladimir Putin do next?

Russia will continue its own drone attacks against Ukraine, that is certain.

Every day, the strikes by Putin’s unmanned combat aerial vehicles seem more ambitious and complex. The last operation that commenced before the huge Ukrainian sneak attack included 472 Russian drones, the largest of the war.

Testing a Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapon?

Putin will likely order more drone and glide bomb attacks on cities to target civilians.

But he could up the ante to testing a tactical nuclear weapon to show that the Kremlin is not afraid to display the power of the Russian nuclear program.

He is not likely to react with a nuclear device against Ukrainian cities and military targets, but a test of a weapon is surely to make the world take notice.

Ceasefire Is Off the Table

There is no way Putin will agree to a ceasefire now. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are meeting in Istanbul, Turkey, on June 2, trying to develop a peace arrangement. Putin could cancel these talks or at least provide a solid front against an armistice.

This is an attack that will set the peace process back in a significant way. Putin will vow revenge and is undoubtedly willing to continue the war until he gets payback. This is a huge public relations win for Ukraine, too. Kyiv needed a morale boost to the war effort, which has been stuck in a stalemate for months. While Russia is expected to recover militarily, the strike will remind Moscow that no location is safe from Ukrainian attacks. This takes the war in a new direction.

What About a Russian Attack Against a NATO Member?

Russia could go on nuclear alert and warn Ukraine and the West that this is a time for the highest operational readiness for its atomic forces.

Drills and exercises will surely ensue. Plus, Putin could order some type of attack against a NATO country in vengeance. If that happened, the Article V collective defense stipulation would be triggered, and total war would break out in Europe in a state of violence not seen since World War II.

Requiring the U.S. to Keep Ukraine From Escalating

Putin will request that the United States try to keep Ukraine from escalating the war. The Russian leader will see whether Washington and President Donald Trump have the power to convince Ukraine that no further shocking drone attacks are necessary.

However, Ukraine won no territory with the attack, and it is unclear if Kyiv plans to pursue a ground offensive that could further surprise Putin and his generals.

Putin is likely to accuse the United States and its intelligence community of assisting with the bomber attack. Even if Trump denies that accusation, Russia will continue to crow that the Americans assisted with the maneuver. This will hurt peace talks further.

Maybe Putin Does Nothing?

Putin could react in another way, too.

Instead of storm and fury, he could simply shrug off the attack to insist that it did not really hurt his military.

However, that is not really in the Putin playbook. Russia was stung mercilessly, and the only way for the Russian dictator to respond was to vow vengeance.

Before Putin agrees to more talks, he will continue to require that Ukraine not join NATO and that the territory seized by Russia in the Donbas region is a permanent situation. Moscow will not give up any land it has already claimed.

Russia is also likely to conduct a ground offensive that could pierce Ukrainian lines. Zelensky should place his troops on high alert to expect that the Russians will attack at any time.

The operation on the bombers, even though it was ingenious, will not stop the Russians from fighting back. They will recoil temporarily, but it is not expected to change the outcome of the war.

The worst thing Russia could do would be to place nuclear forces on the highest alert and test a tactical nuclear weapon. Expect peace talks to be curtailed or even cancelled this week. Why should Russia stop fighting without some type of revenge?

For Ukraine, it is another tactical win without much strategic upside. The attack was not an invasion and will be remembered for its audacity and technical prowess, but is not expected to be enough of a decisive strike to end the war.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

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