Key Points and Summary – Russia has dramatically escalated its drone war on Ukraine, now routinely launching hundreds of drones nightly.
-A German general warns that due to a massive increase in domestic production, Russia could soon launch swarms of up to 2,000 drones in a single attack.
-This surge is fueled by critical components supplied by China.
-The Russian-made Geran-2 drones are also qualitatively superior to their Iranian predecessors—they are more resistant to jamming and are now being armed with devastating thermobaric “vacuum” bombs, marking a terrifying new phase in the ongoing air war.
Hundreds of Russian Drones Swarming Ukraine Nearly Every Night
Russia now routinely batters Ukraine with more drones in a single night than it did during some entire months in 2024, and analysts say these attacks are going to escalate. On July 8, Russia unleashed more than 700 drones—a record.
The Russian military has increased production of its drones to such an extent that, within months, it may be able to launch up to 2,000 of the devices in a single night, according to a German assessment.
In an interview published last week, the head of the German Ministry of Defense’s Planning and Command Office, Maj. Gen. Christian Freuding, discussed Moscow’s scaled-up drone production capacity.
“The Russians are looking to increase their production capacity—they want to expand drone attacks … The ambition is to have 2,000 drones that can be used simultaneously,” the general said, shortly after he returned from Ukraine.
“The quality of the drones that were copied from the Iranian predecessor models has improved significantly—we assume that the potency has increased by 50%, they are hardened against electronic warfare defenses and harder to defend against,” he added.
Russia has significantly increased its drone production, and all indications suggest that it will continue to produce even more, while also importing foreign drones. Initially importing Shahed-136 drones from Iran early in the 3.5-year-old war, Russia has boosted its domestic production and upgraded the original design. A drone attack, as mentioned above, with 2,000 drones in a single night, could be possible by as early as November.
General Freuding has stated that China has now completely stopped exporting drone parts to Ukraine and is instead supplying Russia.
Chinese Producing Drone Components For Russia
Making matters worse for Ukraine is that China is supplying components for Russian drones, after stating that it would not provide equipment in the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIU) stated that it had identified a new drone that Moscow would use, which is smaller and similar to the Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone.
The DIU stated that all components were Chinese and almost half of the components came from a single Chinese firm, CUAV Technology, which had announced in October 2022 that it would restrict acquisition of its products to Ukraine and Russia, thereby curbing their military use.
Russian TV Highlights Drone Factory
Russia’s state-run Zvezda TV recently produced a documentary showcasing one of Moscow’s most secretive military-industrial sites: the Alabuga drone factory in the Tatarstan region.
It’s a little more than 600 miles from Ukraine’s border, and the facility produces Russia’s Geran-2 drone, which is a version of Iran’s Shahed one-way attack drone.
The Russians have continuously improved upon the design of the Shahed drones. An article in SAN reported that a recently shot-down drone demonstrated just how far the technology has advanced.
One drone contained an advanced AI computing platform, a high-resolution camera, a radio link for real-time remote piloting from Russia, and Iranian-made anti-jamming technology.
Unlike early Shaheds, which could neither track moving targets nor adjust course after launch, this version is fully steerable, jam-resistant, and capable of mid-flight retargeting.
“Previous drones often just circled until they crashed,” said David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security. “Now they’re harder to shoot down and much more effective.”
The Russian Defense Ministry says it’s turning its drone force into a separate military branch. It has also established a dedicated center for enhancing drone tactics and providing better training for those operating them.
Russia Is Arming Drones With Thermobaric Bombs for Ukraine War
One of the weapons that Russia is arming its Geran 2 drones with is the thermobaric bomb. The UK’s MoD has said on “X” that Russia had confirmed the use of the TOS-1A weapon system in Ukraine.
A thermobaric bomb (also called a vacuum or aerosol bomb) consists of a fuel container with two separate explosive charges.
This bomb can be launched as a rocket or dropped from an aircraft as a bomb. When the bomb hits its target, the first explosive charge opens the container, widely scattering the fuel mixture as a cloud that can penetrate any building openings or defenses not completely sealed.
A second charge then detonates the cloud, resulting in a huge fireball, a massive blast wave, and a vacuum which sucks up all surrounding oxygen. The weapon can destroy reinforced buildings, equipment, and kill people.
These bombs are designed for use against enemies in tunnels and bunker complexes. They are most effective against targets in enclosed spaces.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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