Key Points and Summary – A new analysis reveals that Russia’s ability to strike Ukraine with bomber-launched cruise missiles has been effectively cut in half over the past year.
-This significant degradation of a key strategic capability is attributed to several factors, led by Ukraine’s successful “Operation Spider’s Web” drone attacks, which have reduced the number of flyable Russian bombers.
-Furthermore, Western sanctions are squeezing Russia’s missile production, which relies on foreign components, and Ukrainian drones have also been targeting Russian missile plants. Despite this success, Russia continues to barrage Ukraine with massive drone swarms.
Russia’s Air Power Is Faltering: How Ukraine Halved a Major Missile Threat
Russia has been barraging Ukraine with drones for the last several months. However, one particular way Russia has been striking Ukraine appears to have been seriously degraded as the war has gone on.
According to an analysis published Wednesday by the Kyiv Post, citing data from informator.ua, Russia’s capability to strike Ukraine with bomber-launched cruise missiles has been halved since last year.
“A critical piece of Russia’s long-range force military projection capability – cruise missiles dropped by a big strategic bomber in the air thousands of kilometers away from the target – is around half of what it was a year ago,” the report, written by Stefan Korshak, says.
“A Kyiv Post review of Ukrainian Air Force data and information platforms assesses that Russia’s bomber fleet has fewer flyable airplanes, and Russian missile manufacturers seem to be delivering fewer missiles to military airfields. In addition, long-range Ukrainian drone strikes have been targeting Russian missile plants.”
Per the report, Russia was able to launch “an average of 33 cruise missiles in a nighttime massed strike” in April and May, a figure that had dropped to 19 for June and July.
How Ukraine Did It: Drones
There are a few reasons why that capability has been degraded, including Ukraine’s daring “Operation Spider’s Web” drone attacks on June 1, as well as the continuing impact of Western sanctions on Russia.
“Losses to Russia’s bomber fleet inflicted by Operation Spiderweb, according to that report, are largely responsible for a 42 percent drop in air-launched cruise missile counts fired by the Kremlin at Ukraine,” the Kyiv Post report said.
And while Russia was able to launch many strikes in the weeks after the June 1 attack, “Russian firepower deployed against Ukraine in 2024 was worse,” Kyiv Post said.
What Missiles Russia Makes
Kyiv Post, citing “published Ukrainian military intelligence reports,” the Russian armaments industry “probably assembles 30 to 50 air-launched cruise missiles for the Russian Aerospace Force monthly.”
“The most common cruise missile manufactured by Russia in quantity, the Kh-59, contains dozens of advanced components sold by US firms (Cypress Semiconductor, Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, Marvell Technology, Intel, Spansion, Linear Technology, Skyworks Solutions, Maxim Integrated Products, Integrated Silicon Solutions), as well as a few from Europe (MTechnology – Switzerland, NXP Semiconductors – the Netherlands). Sanctions in effect have reduced but not eliminated Russian access to these critical parts.”
Drone Attacks Continue
Despite all that, Russia has continued to attack Ukraine with drones and other weaponry. A recent Radio Free Europe headline was fairly typical: “Russia Responds To Washington Talks With Mass Drone And Missile Strikes On Ukraine.”
“After they rolled a red carpet for [Russian President Vladimir Putin], I completely lost my faith in humanity as well as a belief that the situation can improve,” one Kyiv resident was quoted as saying.
Most recently, per ABC News, overnight drone strikes on Ukraine caused a pair of German Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets to be scrambled to the Romanian/Ukrainian border, ABC News reported. Romania is a member of NATO.
“Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched 93 drones and two ballistic missiles into the country overnight, of which 62 drones and one missile were shot down or suppressed. The air force reported drone and missile impacts across 20 locations,” ABC News said.
The German planes have been deployed to Romania, as part of NATO’s Enhanced Air Policing missions, which have been active such Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014.
“As an Alliance we stand together in our collective readiness to reinforce the eastern flank and ensure the security of NATO airspace,” Lieutenant General Holger “Hawk” Neumann, German Air Chief, said in NATO’s announcement of Germany’s deployment in late July.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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