Would Donald Trump Really Pull the United States Out of NATO?

If former President Donald Trump wins the White House again, he could conceivably pull the United States out of NATO. This is unthinkable to the Europeans and the American foreign policy blob in the nation’s capital, but it could be inevitable.

Trump has hated NATO since he first ran for president in 2015 and 2016. He thinks it is a waste of money and that NATO allies do not pay their fair share for mutual defense. He has threatened to allow Russia to attack the countries who do not pay at least three percent of their GDP toward military spending.

But would he do it? What would be the ramifications?

Vladimir Putin Would Have the Party of the Century

What would happen if the United States ever pulled out of NATO?

Vladimir Putin would say I told you so and the Russians would rejoice. Putin, of course, despises NATO and its encroachment on his borders. NATO expansion is one reason (not the main reason) that Russia invaded Ukraine. The Ukrainians want to join NATO now, requiring a full consensus from all the alliance’s members. I would wager that Hungary and Turkey would be against Ukraine’s ascension.

NATO Members Would Have a Collective Heart Attack

Next, there would be panic in Brussels, and you could understand why.

Putin’s forces are down but not out. He still has a massive stockpile of nuclear weapons, the world’s largest, including low-yield battlefield devices. The Russians have not fully mobilized their populace for war, and they could increase troop strength. The defense industrial base continues to chug along despite sanctions. The Russian air force and navy, aside from the Black Sea fleet, are still mostly intact.

More Russian Invasions

NATO members in the Baltics would be apprehensive about a NATO without the United States. Russia could quickly attack Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. Poland would be frantic without the Americans to backstop NATO. Putin would be sure to entertain the notion of expanding the Russian empire by annexing more territory.

Leaving NATO and Maintaining the Status Quo

But what if the United States left NATO and nothing happened?

This would be what Trump wants. The war in Ukraine is likely to continue, but Putin could stop there and take the territory from the Donbas and declare victory someday. Then, Russia would cease further incursions in Europe.

Trump would then be the one to say, “I told you so.” However, the problem is that Putin would not stop his quest to return glory and acquire more territory to create what he believes is an uber-powerful 21st-century empire.

Would Trump Pull U.S. Troops Out of Europe?

That leaves the 100,000 or so American troops in Europe. Would Trump order these military personnel back to the United States? That is less likely, although Trump always talks about saving money and stopping endless wars by bringing the troops home. He may pull back a nominal number of rear-echelon troops, but a substantial force will likely remain.

Huge Amounts of Blowback in America

One thing is clear: If Trump ever pulled out of NATO, Congress would be apoplectic. Even Republicans would not support the move. Generals, admirals, and members of Trump’s administration would resign. The media would crucify Trump, and public opinion polls would not support the move.

He Is Libal to Threaten Leaving NATO When He Is Not Getting His Way

That leaves Trump to use the threat of leaving NATO as an argument against NATO members who do not pull their weight with adequate defense spending. He was the first president since the Cold War ended even to entertain notions of leaving the alliance. It is always in the back of his mind, and we should take his threats seriously, even when he espouses idle rhetoric on days when he is mad about U.S. military commitments overseas.

This is why many heads of state in Europe fear a Trump presidency. Trump is suspicious of military commitments and treaties and obsessed with saving defense money on global troop deployments. He could start with his friend Putin and even promise to leave NATO in exchange for Russia stopping the war in Ukraine. Trump could actually do the unthinkable, and NATO members should prepare for the day that the alliance could change for the worse.

About the Author

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.