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$1 Trillion: How Much Will It Cost to Rebuild Ukraine?

T-90M from Russia.
T-90M from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

How Will Ukraine Be Rebuilt After the War with Russia? It’s not something that many people think about, but it’s the elephant in the room.

I am referring to the need to rebuild Ukraine after the war. The country is decimated, and there is also a considerable number of mines and other unexploded ordnance that will hobble efforts at reconstruction.

Then there will be the money needed—likely $1 trillion. It will take more than a Marshall Plan from the United States and the international community. Who is ready to make these kinds of open-ended commitments to fix a post-war Ukraine?

Ukraine War: The Damages Are Extensive

The World Economic Forum estimates that in 2024, “damage to Ukraine caused by the ongoing war with Russia has an estimated cost of between $411 billion and $1 trillion.” This number goes up to $10 billion every month.

“In the first 10 months of the war, 149,300 residential buildings had been damaged, along with more than 3,000 educational buildings, 330 hospitals and almost 600 administrative buildings. The telecommunications network has been heavily impaired — with approximately half of the power grid damaged or destroyed. Approximately 20% of the country’s farmland has been wrecked and 30% of land either littered with landmines or unexploded ordnance,” the World Economic Forum said.

Many People and Organizations Are Ready to Pitch In

Thankfully there are some great minds trying to wrap their heads around these numbers. The first planning conference for Ukraine re-construction was held in Lugano, Switzerland just five months after the initial Russian invasion in 2022. The conference named the effort the “National Recovery and Development Plan.”

International Groups Will Step In

Since then, the World Bank and the European Union have also led some of the efforts at planning and execution for Ukraine’s post-war recovery. The biggest needs are in housing, infrastructure, healthcare, agriculture, electrical power production, and other types of energy. Additional requirements include demining, telecommunications, digital and cybersecurity, emergency response and civil protection, and democracy, justice, and human rights.

How Much Money Will It Take?

As you can see this will be a huge undertaking. Simply addressing one of these areas will require utmost concentration and significant time, money, and resources. The National Recovery and Development Plan is calling for $721.3 million over 10 years. But will that be enough time and funding? And who or what is going to raise that kind of money?

Can Rebuilding Funds Come from the Private Sector?

One idea is to depend on contributions from the private sector. The Ukraine Business Compact was instituted as an outgrowth of the 2023 Ukraine Recovery Conference. Over 600 corporations from 42 countries with a market capitalization of $5.2 trillion have signed the compact.

The World Economic Forum also created the Davos Baukultur Alliance in 2023 at the organization’s annual meeting. This includes government departments of culture, urban planning, and environment from at least 30 countries.

Who Leads the ‘Rebuild Ukraine’ Effort?

With all of these “cooks in the kitchen” it is difficult to foresee which organization is in charge and where the main effort will be. The aid organizations will have to balance the speed in which they re-build with the long-term sustainability that they can create.

Re-Imagine the New Economy

This would be a good time to expand renewable energy efforts and diversify toward a 21st-century information and knowledge-based economy that can balance traditional manufacturing and farming with new technology such as artificial intelligence, data centers, civilian drones, and robotics.

Help for the Ukrainian Diaspora

Then there are the refugees who have left Ukraine. There are approximately 6.2 million international refugees and 5.1 million people who have moved to other locations inside the country. This means addressing the glaring requirement for jobs and housing. Where will all of these people go if they return? They will also need to be absorbed into the new economy.

What About the Children?

An overlooked part of the reconstruction effort will be the need for orphanages to house parent-less children who have nowhere to go. International NGOs will have to pick up the slack to stand up and build these facilities. Schools will also have to be re-built.

It’s Going to Take Mega-bucks

I estimate this all costing at least a trillion dollars, which is higher than the above figure. Thankfully, many organizations are devising ways to rebuild and aspiring to raise money from diverse sources. Rebuilders must make a priority list. Should housing, the production of food, economic development, or electrical power be addressed first? Can all of these efforts be fixed at once?

A multi-national effort with numerous stakeholders will be needed. We have that now. The future Ukraine can be re-imagined with a modernized economy that works for all Ukrainians. This is entirely possible, but it will take at least ten years to fully re-build. What will help is the strength, resilience, and creativity of the Ukrainian people. If they can fight a successful war, they can use this confidence to re-construct the country despite all of the challenges. Ukraine can still become a successful European state with a commitment to human rights, optimum development goals, and a thriving country that everyone can be proud of.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

Brent M. Eastwood
Written By

Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.

15 Comments

15 Comments

  1. bobb

    October 25, 2024 at 5:39 pm

    Nobody in his right mind would want to contribute to rebuilding and/or preserving a modern day neo-nazi state except fellow fascists like stoltenberg.

    But that’s beside the point.

    The real life’s prospect facing ukraine Today is How and when the fighting is going to end.

    When NATO becomes tired and exhausted at supporting or filling a bottomless hole or if the whole of europe itself becomes entangled in a ww3-type scenario.

    Look at afghanistan today. Nobody’s rebuilding it as it has lapsed back into the prior period of olden religious fervor.

    Same for ukroland. Forward back to the bandera period.

  2. 404NotFound

    October 25, 2024 at 6:10 pm

    One trillion (a thousand billion) sounds too little. A bit like chickenfeed.

    After all, some modern weapon systems cost several hundred billions per contract.

    Rebuilding ukraine must only be considered after the middle east gaza problem has been take care of.

    But right now, the middle east is just getting started. Solving the problem facing gaza is a very long, long way off.

    (The israeli counter retaliation against iran is still being planned or discussed.Not yet carried out so far today.)

  3. JingleBells

    October 25, 2024 at 6:24 pm

    Ukraine today is an exact replica of the ostpreussen of the early 1940s.

    What happened to it after may 1945.

    It totally ceased to exist after 1945 and effectively became part of an independent poland.

    Did poland receive any money from the west for rebuilding the country after it was ravaged by the nazists.

    So, little or no money should be earmarked for ukraine.

    Let it become part of an expanded poland. Then NATO & EU can foot the bill.

    Money for development should strictly go to third world nations. Like sudan and mali and yemen. And haiti.

    Everybody seems not to realize that haiti (physically located right under uncle sam’s belly button) still exists.

  4. 404NotFound

    October 25, 2024 at 10:50 pm

    Reports have just emerged israrl has launched its long expected but greatly delayed counterattack strikes on iran.

    Joe, will the west now pay compensation to iran. After all, iran is facing or enduring attacks from a far superior foe like what kyiv is experiencing.

    Or western countries prefer to be selective when it comes to channeling financial aid.

    Then all HELL to the axis of fascist powers. HELL to all of them.

  5. megiddo

    October 25, 2024 at 11:59 pm

    Forget the dollars or the $$$.

    Now is to count the costs of stupidly dividing the world into 2 camps a la 1914-era.

    That policy was initiated by joe biden, the self-praised foreign policy expert from the land of uncle sam, and self-proclaimed managing comptroller of the globe.

    Israel has again attacked iran for the umpteenth occasion and so, now’s the time for iran to openly acquire its own nuclear arsenal.

    Tehran should quickly contact pyongyang for the nukes supply and to HELL with yoon suk yeol.

    And to HELL with joe biden as well. And HELL to austin.

  6. One-World-Order

    October 26, 2024 at 2:28 am

    Hmm, why the photo of the now obsolete tank, the proryv.

    Photo should instead feature the T-84 oplot tank.

    Tanks aside, the best & most outstanding country opposing the giant global US-led political and military bloc today is north korea.

    Nobody dares to mess with north korea.

    Would Israel dare attack north korea if it sends soldiers to ukraine. Never. It will never dare to attack.

    The reason is the existence of the north korean underwater torpedo drone, the haeil.

    A haeil or a couple of them operating in the gulf of aqaba is enough to guarantee to send shivers running up the spines of even the toughest Israeli generals.

    Nobody dares mess with pyongyang. Today. Nobody.

  7. Jacksonian Libertarian

    October 26, 2024 at 10:12 am

    Ukraine is producing over 1,000,000 FPV drones/year at the moment.
    The West needs tens of millions of FPV and larger drones to update their militaries to the Information Age.
    This is a battle-proven product that Ukraine can use to transform itself from the “poorest country in Europe” to the first world.
    Other industries can upgrade with state-of-the-art factories built with low-interest (Marshall Plan) loans and Western partners.
    Rebuilding?
    Most of what was destroyed is Soviet Era crap that was nearly worthless and would be stupid to replace, and farmland that only needs the moonscape of bomb craters filled in.

  8. Alejandro Pelota

    October 28, 2024 at 11:27 am

    Don’t worry about the cost Brent… Russia will rebuild Ukraine after victory… The rest of the Ukraine land will return to the countries the Lenin & USSR stole the land from – Poland & Hungary…

  9. Bozo

    October 28, 2024 at 11:28 am

    Not our problem.

  10. E T Gwynn

    October 28, 2024 at 11:55 am

    See Biden, all of ’em, and big boy Obama who stripped the U of its Nukes and therefore emascualating a significant source of ag products and so forth.]

    Otherwise the full answer is ZERO

  11. Pingback: How the EU is Breaking Free from Russian Energy Dependency - NationalSecurityJournal

  12. Robert

    October 29, 2024 at 10:12 am

    Ukraine is in Europe. Let Europe defend Europe. The EU has several times the population of Russia, better transportation and is far richer.
    The United States should have quit NATO with the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
    Between the Fall of Saigon and the Fall of Kabulhave we learned nothing?

  13. Sean

    October 29, 2024 at 2:47 pm

    🤔 The question should be, “How many rubles will it cost the Russians to rebuild Ukraine?” After all, the Russians will own Ukraine after all this is over.

  14. cag

    October 29, 2024 at 8:44 pm

    A better question…why do I give a crap how much it costs to rebuild Ukraine? They can rebuild it themselves. Without our tax dollars. All the money dumped into Ukraine from the US has been hush money to keep them quiet about the Biden family corruption.

  15. jcr

    October 29, 2024 at 9:16 pm

    I agree with Bozo.
    We are only involved bc of the dirt they have on the “Big Guy.”

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