Key Points and Summary – As Ukraine develops new long-range missiles like the “Long Neptune,” the war with Russia is on the verge of a terrifying escalation: direct strikes on Moscow.
-Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reportedly wants to produce enough missiles to hit the Russian capital daily, aiming to put direct pressure on the Kremlin.
-However, Russia would almost certainly retaliate with overwhelming force against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, potentially using missiles sourced from its allies.
-This would unleash a “21st-century Blitz,” a horrifying new phase of the war defined by mass civilian casualties in both nations’ capitals.
Ukraine and Russia Will Devastate Their Capitals With Long-range Missiles
Ukraine’s long-range drone attacks against Russia have hurt the invaders considerably. An intrepid raid in June called Operation Spider Web aimed at Russian air bases destroyed dozens of bombers, and it captivated the world.
Now, Ukrainian drones are flying as far as Moscow. In fact, civilian airports had to be shut down near the capital as unmanned loitering munitions were sent there in force on July 20.
Moscow Is In Danger
Russian air defense batteries shot down 27 Ukrainian combat drones over Moscow, and airports stranded thousands of passengers who had their flights cancelled. Many were forced to spend the night at the airport.
This was a close call, and it showed that Ukraine now has the power to attack the capital at will. However, these unmanned kamikaze weapons would likely not have caused sufficient damage to make a significant difference in the war.
Ukraine Could Switch to Long-range Ballistic and Cruise Missiles
What about Ukraine using more lethal long-range ballistic missiles against Moscow?
This would make Vladimir Putin, his generals, and civilians take notice and be forced to rush to bomb shelters on a nightly basis.
If that were to happen, how would Russia react?
21st Century ‘Blitz’
This would be a huge escalation in the war should Ukraine’s missiles kill and wound a large number of non-combatants. It would be a 21st-century version of the London Blitz. Ukraine would need a massive number of long-range ballistic missiles, and it is unclear whether it could develop them organically or acquire them from another country.
The eastern edge of Ukraine is only 304 miles from Moscow, although Russia controls most of the eastern region, especially in the Donbas area. Ukraine would need missiles that would double the range. Plus, these would have to be fired from road-mobile launchers.
HIMARS and ATACMS Don’t Have Enough Range for Moscow
The M142 HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) that Ukraine deploys only has a combat radius of 45 to 93 miles. But with the ATACMS missile, the range extends to 186 miles. That is still not long enough to pose a threat to Moscow.
‘Long Neptune’ Is Ready to Rip the Kremlin
However, the Ukrainians have not given up. They have a cruise missile called “Long Neptune” that has a maximum range of 600 miles. That may be enough to hit Moscow, and Volodymyr Zelensky said that the friendly forces will soon employ it regularly against the Russian capital. The Long Neptune was successfully tested in March against an oil refinery in Tuapse, Russia, around 300 miles from the battlefront.
Long Netpune is based on the original Neptune anti-ship missile that sank the Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva in 2022.
Zelensky has said that the manufacturing of the Long Neptune has begun feverishly. He wants 100,000 long-range munitions as soon as possible that could hit Moscow daily.
Ukraine would want to directly threaten the Kremlin to put Vladimir Putin and his cronies in danger. Some Ukrainian drones that have targeted Red Square have been shot down, but this has sent a message to Putin that Ukraine has every intention of bombarding Moscow regularly.
Peklo Could Be the Punisher
Ukraine also has a projectile that is notable for its unusual configuration. Known as the “Peklo,” this is a type of hybrid “missile-drone” with a range of 434 miles. Ukraine has built more than 100 this year. Serial production is going up, and many more are on the way.
If bombarded by cruise missiles and hybrid missile-drones daily, Putin could unleash even more punishment on Ukrainian cities with drones and long-range missiles too. This would be a nightmare for civilians on both sides of the war.
Putin could also do some nuclear saber-rattling. The use of strategic weapons is always the fail-safe option for the Kremlin. The Russian dictator could also order a tactical nuclear weapon test – probably in Kazakhstan – to shock the world.
Russia could also purchase long-range missiles from Iran, North Korea, and China to better punish Ukraine. This would seem to be the most likely outcome. There is no way that Putin would back down if a Ukrainian strike on Moscow produced a large number of casualties.
Both sides would dig in, and the West would try to keep both sides from killing large numbers of the civilian populace. Zelensky and Putin are resolute in their wish to bombard each other’s capitals.
The Moscow Threat
One hundred thousand long-range weapons produced by the Ukrainians sounds like an optimistic number. But even half or one quarter of that would be enough to terrorize Moscow and send the Russians, including Putin and his national security team, into bunkers.
The best missile defenses are arrayed around the capital, including S-300, S-400, and S-500 surface-to-air missiles. But interceptors would also have to be resupplied, and sanctions are hurting their production. Ukraine would need more Patriot air defense batteries from the United States.
Modern warfare has evolved into a drone and missile fight that can target cities to punish civilians. Ukraine and Russia have the willpower to use bombardments to the greatest extent that they can. This is an arms race that may end up creating even more civilian casualties. The international community should consider the long-range missile fight as they ponder ways to help the Ukrainians and Russians achieve a ceasefire and some form of lasting peace.
No one wants the slaughter of civilians in Moscow and Kyiv to become an everyday occurrence. Events are developing toward a systematic elimination of innocent people on both sides, which should give everyone pause and make them look for any way to end this war.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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