PUBLISHED on August 13, 2025, 8:18 AM EDT: Key Points and Summary – As Israel signals its readiness to launch further strikes, Iran faces a critical decision regarding its nuclear program and potential retaliation.
-While Tehran remains defiant, its military position is weak; its air defenses are a “hodgepodge” of reserve systems, and its intelligence apparatus has been thoroughly penetrated.
-Some analysts predict a “far bloodier,” more decisive Iranian response in a future conflict to project strength.
-However, given its military shortcomings, a more plausible scenario is that Iran will rely on covert or asymmetric attacks rather than risk another direct, conventional confrontation with a superior Israeli force.
As Israel Prepares for More Iran Conflict, Iran’s Next Move Is Uncertain
As Tehran promises to continue its nuclear program despite U.S. and Israeli pressure, refuses to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to visit its damaged nuclear facilities, and faces the prospect of “snapback” sanctions by the end of August, all signs point to a renewed conflict with Israel. And, potentially, the United States.
In July, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that further strikes were on the cards if Tehran threatens Israel.
“If we must return, we will do so with greater force,” Katz said at an Air Force graduation ceremony.
Sources familiar with Israeli military preparations also told Axios that same month that Israeli officials believe U.S. President Donald Trump could greenlight new strikes against Iran.
Trump, however, remains somewhat hesitant to launch fresh strikes against Iran – but hasn’t entirely ruled out doing so. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a senior White House official told The Associated Press in June that President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to expect further American strikes against Iran, following Operation Midnight Hammer.
On June 27, however, President Trump told reporters that he would “without question” bomb Iran again should its remaining nuclear infrastructure be used to enrich uranium. But if Israel strikes again – with or without the direct support of the United States – it raises a critical question: will Iran respond differently?
Could Iran Change Tactics Next Time?
Some analysts even suggest that Israel may be preparing new strikes against Iran as soon as late August, or at least before December. Writing for Foreign Policy, Trita Parsi argued that both countries’ strategic calculations point toward another, “far bloodier” round of conflict.
Parsi theorized that while Iran played the long game in the June war – pacing its missile fire in anticipation of a protracted fight – its military may strike more decisively at the outset of any renewed hostilities to challenge perceptions of Israeli military dominance.
Parsi also warned that such an escalation could quickly surpass the intensity of the previous conflict, particularly if President Trump once again instructs his military to work alongside Israeli forces in support of their objectives.
While analysts like Parsi warn of a more aggressive military response from Iran in the future, it’s worth considering the possibility that there is little strategic logic in Tehran pursuing such a course. Israeli dominance in both intelligence and strike capability is well established, and there is little Iran can do to make world leaders believe otherwise.
A more severe Iranian barrage at the outset of a new conflict could serve a domestic political purpose, projecting strength to the people of Iran and perhaps staving off unrest. However, it cannot alter the battlefield reality. The international community is acutely aware of Iran’s military shortcomings – from its ageing air force to its flawed air defense systems – particularly in light of how comprehensively Israeli intelligence was able to guide massive and devastating strikes to its secretive nuclear infrastructure during the 12-Day War.
Moreover, Iran has had no time to strengthen its defenses meaningfully. Iranian officials have already confirmed that its air defense network, which lacked interoperability and performed poorly under sustained attacks, has been replaced with systems that were stored as reserves.
As it stands, Iran’s air defenses are made up of a hodgepodge of systems that serve merely as a stopgap, and not the kind of upgrade necessary to fend off future Israeli strikes. And under these conditions, it’s hard to envision Iran willingly goading Israel to strike even harder once the next strike inevitably arrives.
However, if that is indeed how Tehran responds, the only plausible scenario in my mind would be this: Iran hits back harder, relying on covert operations or asymmetric attack plans that might, in theory, mitigate the response from the United States and Israel. If, of course, any plans for an asymmetric attack aren’t intercepted by Israeli intelligence first.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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