China Launched 10 Submarines in 4 Years. The U.S. Navy Struggled to Built Just 7. One Country’s Shipyard Can Build 20 at Once. The Other’s Is Falling Apart

In any future naval war between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the navies of the two nations will lead the fight. Specifically, the submarine forces of these countries will likely be among the first units to engage each other in combat.

Quantity vs. Quality: A Dangerous Equation

While the United States Navy’s submarine force is undoubtedly qualitatively superior to China’s growing submarine force, China’s force is growing larger. Having already surpassed the Russian Navy’s submarine force as the world’s second-largest, China is on track to catch up to the US force soon.

Kilo-Class Submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

China Nuclear Submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

What’s more, the Chinese submarine force is backed by the world’s greatest manufacturing base, specifically designed to scale advanced systems (like submarines). It’s true that the United States still has greater experience operating advanced nuclear submarines and managing their systems in combat than the Chinese do. But, as always, quantity has a quality of its own that is hard to overcome with quality alone.

The Numbers That Should Alarm Washington

The Congressional Research Service (CRS) issued a report stating that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) operates six ballistic missile nuclear submarines (SSBNs), six general-purpose nuclear-powered attack submarines, and 48 diesel-electric Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) submarines.

China’s submarine force is expected to reach 80 by 2035. Meanwhile, the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) projects that the number of Chinese submarines will grow from 66 in 2020 to 76 by 2030, with China’s PLAN nuclear capabilities rising over time.

China’s Shipyards: The Real Strategic Weapon

According to a recent Popular Mechanics report, from 2021 to 2025, China launched 10 new submarines, while the US Navy launched only 7. The Chinese Bohai Shipyard at Huludao is one of the primary reasons for China’s submarine production boom. Defense News reported that the Bohai Shipyard’s “Eastern Assembly Hall has space for twelve assembly slots measuring 144m long, while the newer Southern Assembly Hall has eight slots measuring 157.5m long.”

The Eastern and Southern Assembly Halls of the Bohai Shipyard could accommodate the simultaneous construction of 20 nuclear attack submarines. The United States today has no comparable capacity at that scale. Indeed, the shipyard tasked with building US submarines is already struggling with a workforce crisis, along with a retinue of supply chain shortages and industrial bottlenecks.

SOUDA BAY, Greece (March 27, 2022) The Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarine USS Georgia (SSGN 729) near Souda Bay, Greece, during training with U.S. Marines from Task Force 61/2 (TF-61/2), conducting launch and recovery training with their combat rubber raiding craft, March 27, 2022. TF-61/2 will temporarily provide command and control support to the commander of U.S. 6th Fleet, to synchronize Navy and Marine Corps units and capabilities already in theater, in support of regional Allies and Partners and U.S. national security interests. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Dylan Chagnon)

Chinese investments in their shipyards for submarine construction have clearly paid off, doubling submarine production in China and preparing for sustained expansion into the 2030s.

A Future Where China Challenges US Undersea Dominance

On the other hand, the United States has yet to fully modernize and expand its naval shipyard capacity, creating real strategic gaps in the US Navy’s defense posture.

Over time, the PLAN could surge its submarine production to the point that it will erode US undersea dominance. In fact, this surge might allow Chinese ballistic-missile submarines to threaten large parts of the United States from relatively protected waters near China.

What’s more, the Chinese are both expanding the number of their submarines and the complexity of these systems. According to CRS, the incoming Chinese Type 095 and 096 submarines are expected to bring much-needed improvements in propulsion, sensors, weapons, and vertical launch capacity (though China still has weaknesses in propulsion and quieting technologies, even as it advances). It’s a troubling trendline for the United States.

Geography Still Matters—For Now

Defense Priorities urges caution before buying into the trendline argument. In their view, geography still works against Beijing’s naval expansion plans. China is hemmed in by the First Island Chain. Furthermore, Chinese submarines and ships must pass through several smaller chokepoints, such as the Bashi Channel and the Miyako Strait, to project power beyond their immediate territory.

Once China shifts from a regional defensive force focused on the First Island Chain to an expeditionary power, the PLAN will face logistical and basing disadvantages relative to the United States. Yet the Chinese are not fully interested in projecting power beyond their near-abroad (not right away, at least). So, the Chinese submarine threat is most dangerous in the area closest to their territory, which is of concern to the United States.

Time is On China’s Side

To address this decline, the Trump administration has launched its “Golden Fleet” initiative, a bid to surge production of US warships and submarines to stay ahead of American rivals, such as China. However, this is unlikely to have the intended effect, as the drag on US ship and submarine production remains America’s broken naval shipyards. Little has been done to truly reverse the decline of these vital capabilities.

The longer this situation persists, the larger China’s submarine force will grow. The greater the number of China’s submarines (and the more advanced those subs become), the less likely the United States will be to wage war successfully against China in the First Island Chain, where any conflict will likely be waged.

About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert is the Senior National Security Editor at 19FortyFive.com. Recently, Weichert became the editor of the “NatSec Guy” section at Emerald. TV. He was previously the senior national security editor at The National Interest. Weichert is the host of The National Security Hour on iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8pm Eastern. He hosts a companion show on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” Weichert consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. His writings have appeared in numerous publications, among them Popular Mechanics, National Review, MSN, and The American Spectator. And his books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. Weichert’s newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.