The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is draining at its fastest rate in roughly a decade — projections suggest levels will drop from 415 million barrels to 243 million barrels, the lowest since the early 1980s. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in late February, prompting the U.S. to release 172 million barrels from the SPR and to coordinate a 400 million-barrel international release. U.S. gasoline now averages $4.55 per gallon — a 50% jump since the war began. GasBuddy projects the national summer average will reach $4.80 per gallon, with $5 possible if the Strait stays closed. America produces 13.5 million barrels per day and exports roughly 14 million.
The Great Gasoline Price Increase This Summer?
Donald Trump speaking to supporters at an immigration policy speech at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona. By Gage Skidmore.
President Donald Trump attends an event celebrating Women’s History Month, Wednesday, March 26, 2025, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is draining at its fastest rate in roughly a decade, with projections suggesting levels will drop from 415 million barrels to 243 million barrels—the lowest since the early 1980s.
But the current crisis is different from the one that led to long gas lines in the 1970s; today, the problem is not a physical fuel shortage but rather price shocks, supply chain stress, and geopolitical disruption. So Americans are unlikely to see 1970s-style gas lines—but they may feel 1970s-style economic pain.
The Current Crisis
The current crisis was triggered in late February, when the US-Israel-Iran conflict escalated. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the global oil supply passes.
This created a chain reaction: Hormuz was disrupted, creating a global supply shock, causing market panic, prompting the release of reserves, and resulting in higher gasoline prices. The US coordinated the international release of 400 million barrels while releasing 172 million barrels from the SPR.
The SPR
The SPR, or Strategic Petroleum Reserve, is an emergency crude reserve created after the 1970s oil crisis. The emergency reserve is physically stored in underground salt caverns in the Gulf Coast region for use in the event of war, natural disasters, or severe supply disruptions. Importantly, the SPR is not gas stations or gasoline tanks; it is crude oil reserves that eventually become gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. And because of mechanical limits, the maximum output for the SPR is roughly 4 million barrels per day, so the reserve cannot simply be emptied overnight—even if policymakers wanted to.
Refining Bottlenecks
One overlooked issue is refining bottlenecks. Oil itself is not the same as gasoline; crude oil still requires refining, blending, and transportation. Gulf Coast refiners are already operating near high utilization during the summer travel season.
Seasonal gasoline blends are required for emissions compliance, and maintenance schedules can temporarily reduce output. The implication here is that even if crude oil supplies remain adequate, refined fuel markets can still tighten, meaning local consumers may still see regional price spikes, especially on the West Coast and in the Northeast.
Why This Isn’t the 1970s
Today, America is the largest oil producer globally, with 13.5 million barrels produced per day.
This wasn’t the case in the 1970s, when the US was dependent on foreign oil sources. And today, there is no federal price control; in the 1970s, the government capped prices, which meant stations could not raise prices, causing imports to collapse and pumps to be emptied.
But in the contemporary system, high demand drives up prices, which dampens demand and keeps fuel available.
The key distinction, basically, is that in the 1970s, there was a shortage allocation problem, a physical surfeit of fuel. But today, the fuel is present; there’s just a pricing problem instead. So while the five- to six-dollar-per-gallon charges are brutal, it’s not as bad as finding empty pumps.
Commercial Inventory Buffer
And the SPR is only part of the system; the private sector has its own inventories of 400 million additional barrels, held by refiners, oil firms, and storage operators. This commercial inventory is an everyday operating supply, with government reserves held as an emergency cushion.
So even if government reserves shrink, fuel infrastructure does not suddenly disappear.
What Drivers Feel Today
The contemporary problem is real, however. Gasoline averages are about $4.55 per gallon, an increase of 50 percent since the Iran war began. GasBuddy estimates that the summer average will hit $4.80 per gallon.
And if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, $5 averages are possible. Meanwhile, Europe and Asia are competing for US exports, so oddly, the US is draining reserves while exporting record oil volumes—about 14 million barrels per day.
In America, fuel prices are going to hurt, but fuel should remain available.
Strategic Implications
Modern energy wars no longer necessarily create gas station lines in the US. Instead, they create inflation, supply-chain disruption, and economic pressure.
The disruption of the Hormuz disruption demonstrates how important narrow maritime chokepoints remain to the global economy.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is a writer and attorney focused on national security, technology, and political culture. His work has appeared in City Journal, The Hill, Quillette, The Spectator, and The Cipher Brief. He holds a JD from the University of Oregon and a master’s in Global & Joint Program Studies from NYU. More at harrisonkass.com.
